East Texas A&M vs Rice prediction: Rice's offensive rebounding could punish East Texas A&M on the glass

The glass decides it

Neither of these teams finished last season on the right side of .500. Rice went 13-18 and East Texas A&M went 11-21. One part of Rice's game was genuinely good, though, and it lines up against one of East Texas A&M's biggest weaknesses.

The Owls grabbed 36.0% of their own misses last season, 37th in Division I. East Texas A&M's defense pulled down just 68.0% of opponents' misses, 280th. Rice missed plenty, so its offensive rebounding gave it a way to make up for poor shooting. That is the clearest path to a home win at Tudor Fieldhouse.

The Lions have little answer at the other end. Their offensive rebound rate of 26.6% ranked 325th, so they rarely turned their own misses into points either. East Texas A&M actually played slightly bigger by minutes-weighted height, 77.8 inches to Rice's 77.1, which makes its rebounding problem one of effort and positioning rather than size.

Lions live on the extra pass

East Texas A&M plays a distinct style. Last season it assisted on 64.9% of its made baskets, seventh in the country, and took 46.4% of its shots from three, 41st. The ball moved and the shots came from deep.

The shots just didn't fall often enough. The Lions made 32.3% of their threes, 277th, and their adjusted offense (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) ranked 312th. Rice's perimeter defense was middle of the pack, holding opponents to 33.1% from deep, 146th. A hot shooting night is the most realistic way for East Texas A&M to steal this game.

Rice's inside struggles, both lines' misses

Rice has a weakness of its own. The Owls made only 47.6% of their two-pointers last season, 337th nationally. That is part of why their offensive rebounding mattered so much.

Free throws could turn a close finish ugly for both teams. Rice shot 68.5% at the line, 312th, and East Texas A&M shot 67.7%, 330th. Rice also put opponents on the line often: its opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 38.7% ranked 292nd. The Lions are a poor foul-shooting team, so they may not cash in on many of those trips.

Turnovers and the last meeting

East Texas A&M gave the ball away on 18.8% of its possessions last season, 306th. Rice was not a disruptive defense, though: it forced turnovers on 16.4% of possessions, 218th. Whether the Lions' sloppiness carries over may depend more on them than on Rice.

The teams met at Tudor Fieldhouse last November, and Rice won 71-64. Rob Lanier's Owls host again, and Jaret von Rosenberg's Lions come in from the Southland. The only guide is last season's numbers, and no roster news for either men's team has turned up this month. Treat those numbers as a starting point, not a verdict.

What to watch - Rice's second-chance points in the first 10 minutes - How many threes East Texas A&M gets up, and whether they fall - Lions turnovers against a Rice defense that rarely forces them - Free-throw shooting if the game is within a possession late