Delaware State vs Navy prediction: Navy's perimeter clamps face Delaware State's long search for points

Where Delaware State must find points

Navy is coming off a 26-8 season. The Midshipmen went 26-8, won the Patriot League regular-season title at 17-1 and reached the NIT, their first national postseason trip since 1999. Delaware State went 8-23. The gap between those two seasons shows most clearly when the Hornets have the ball.

Last season Delaware State's effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes 1.5 times) was 44.0%, 364th of 365 Division I teams. The trouble showed up everywhere. The Hornets made 29.6% of their threes, 356th nationally, and 43.8% of their twos, 364th. They scored 61.2 points a game, last in the country.

Navy's defense built its season on making opponents miss from outside. Opponents shot 29.7% from three against the Mids, seventh-best nationally. They also allowed just 64.3 points a game, sixth-fewest. One note: opponents fired threes freely against Navy, at a 46.4% attempt rate that ranked 19th-highest. Delaware State rarely shoots them, though. Its 28.5% attempt rate ranked 359th, so the Hornets may have to try something they avoided all of last season.

Both rosters have turned over since then, and these are last season's numbers. Still, the shooting gap is wide enough that it will likely shape this game.

Turnovers are the Hornets' opening

If Delaware State has a path, it runs through its defense. The Hornets forced turnovers on 20.6% of opponent possessions last season, 27th nationally, and their steal rate ranked 45th. That pressure kept their scoring defense respectable even as their offense stalled.

Navy's ball handling is the one soft spot in its profile. The Mids turned it over on 17.6% of possessions, which ranked 244th. Every extra empty trip matters in a game this slow.

The pressure cuts both ways. Delaware State gave the ball away at the same 20.6% rate it forced, 353rd nationally. Navy's defense ranked 58th in forcing turnovers, so the Hornets' own ball security will be tested.

Few possessions, plenty of free throws

Neither team likes to run. Delaware State played at 63.6 possessions per 40 minutes last season (351st), and Navy was even slower at 63.2 (355th). A game this deliberate gives the weaker team fewer chances to fall behind. It also gives the better team fewer chances to pull away.

The free-throw line could decide how much separation Navy finds. The Mids drew fouls well, with a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 39.5%, 63rd nationally. Delaware State's defense fouled often, allowing a 38.6% opponent rate that ranked 291st. Navy also kept opponents off the line better than almost anyone, ranking 17th in that category.

The last meeting fit this profile. Navy won 66-59 at Delaware State on Dec. 3, 2025, a low-scoring game that stayed within single digits.

New faces and an open question

Jon Perry was in his first season leading Navy last year, and no coaching change has surfaced since. The Mids were picked fifth in the Patriot League preseason poll, a step down from last year's regular-season title. The Navy roster includes freshmen Akim Iscandari, Marlon Williams, Wayne Fletcher II and Sean Griffin. No injuries were listed for Navy as of Oct. 17. Navy's exhibition slate includes Coppin State at home on Oct. 24 and a trip to Mount St. Mary's on Oct. 28.

Delaware State's picture is murkier. Stan Waterman coached the Hornets last season, and no 2026-27 change has been reported. The roster adds freshmen Nicholas Baysah Jr., Gideon Ekukwai, Joshua Obiora and Farouk Muntari. Listings conflict on whether Ponce James and Zion Bethea are still with the program, and the school hasn't clarified it. No Delaware State injury news has surfaced.

One more thing to confirm before tip: Navy's released schedule lists its home slate as opening Nov. 14 against Air Force. As of Oct. 18, this Nov. 5 date in Annapolis had not been independently confirmed.