UMBC vs Marist prediction: Marist's rebuilt roster gets an early test from NCAA-tested UMBC

Marist starts over

Marist built its 19-12 season last year on defense, and almost none of the people who did that work are back. Players on this season's roster accounted for just 26.9% of last season's minutes and 23.1% of its points. The Red Foxes are replacing their top five scorers, a group that included guards Justin Menard (12.9 points per game) and Rhyjon Blackwell (12.1).

John Dunne, entering his ninth season, added nine newcomers: six freshmen and three transfers. The most proven is Jack Graham, who scored 11.2 points a game at New Hampshire last season. The returning core is thin on scoring. Jadin Collins-Roberts started all 31 games and played 30.3 minutes a night, but averaged 7.2 points. Myles Parker came off the bench and was the most efficient returner, shooting 38.5% from three.

That makes last season's team numbers a weak guide to the team taking the floor Thursday, Nov. 5. The system stays; the personnel is largely unknown.

Can the defense travel forward?

Last season Marist owned one of the best defenses in the country. Its defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) was 95.7, fourth among 365 Division I teams. Opponents posted an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 45.5%, ninth nationally, and shot just 28.3% from deep.

The offense never matched it. Marist scored 105.0 points per 100 possessions, 302nd nationally, and its free throw rate ranked 361st, meaning it almost never got to the line. If the defense slips with a new roster, there is no offensive cushion behind it.

UMBC brings shooting that will test that system. The Retrievers made 36.3% of their threes last season, 49th nationally.

UMBC's continuity edge

UMBC went 24-9 last season, won 12 straight games and took the America East tournament title before an 86-83 loss to Howard in the First Four. Jim Ferry, extended last April, has a team picked second in the America East preseason coaches' poll behind Vermont.

The Retrievers did lose two starters, DJ Armstrong Jr. and Josh Odunowo, who exhausted their eligibility. But three starters, including Valentine, King and junior power forward Jose Roberto Tanchyn, were expected back. That is far more continuity than Marist has.

UMBC's identity last season was ball security and finishing possessions. Its turnover rate of 14.3 per 100 possessions ranked 29th, and its defensive rebound percentage of 74.5% ranked 20th. It also kept opponents off the line, with an opponent free throw rate eighth nationally. The trade-off: UMBC rarely chased offensive rebounds, ranking 340th on that glass. The Retrievers also carry more size, with a minutes-weighted average height of 77.3 inches to Marist's 75.8.

Game shape and setting

This is the opener of the inaugural America East-Metro Challenge, with each team playing one home and one road game against the other league during the first week of the season. Marist hosts at McCann Arena in Poughkeepsie, and it has won both recent meetings: 65-59 at UMBC in 2023 and 76-73 at home in 2024.

Expect few possessions. Both teams sat in the bottom third in pace last season: UMBC ranked 233rd and Marist 250th. A slow game puts more weight on each turnover, and Marist's defense forced them at a rate that ranked 64th last season. Whether a new group can recreate that pressure against a UMBC backcourt that rarely coughed it up is the cleanest way to judge the night.