Central State (OH) vs Illinois State prediction: Illinois State opens at home with newcomers between a road trip and Purdue
Central State (OH) is the home-opener guest, but the real question is how quickly Ryan Pedon's rebuilt rotation settles between Saint Mary's and Purdue.
- Illinois State should control this one at home. The value lies in seeing how its newcomers fit alongside Chase Walker and the returners.
- Watch Illinois State's defensive glass. Last season the Redbirds ranked 19th nationally in defensive rebound rate, a strength any lineup should carry.
- No spread or total is posted yet. Last season Illinois State allowed 68.5 points per game, 46th nationally, at a pace that ranked 223rd.
A home opener in a brutal stretch
Illinois State's first regular-season game at CEFCU Arena falls three days after a Nov. 2 trip to Saint Mary's and four days before a visit to Purdue on Nov. 9. The Redbirds' early schedule includes five games against teams from last season's NCAA Tournament. That makes Thursday's game against Central State (OH) a home stop in a tough opening run. Illinois State also has a second exhibition, at Green Bay, scheduled for today. That follows an Oct. 18 home exhibition against Northwestern.
Last season's identity, new faces
The 2025-26 Redbirds went 23-13 and made an NIT run. Defense carried them. Their adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) was 102, which ranked 59th of 365. They also finished possessions well, ranking 19th in defensive rebound rate at 74.5%.
Their style was deliberate and perimeter-tilted. They played at 66.8 possessions per 40 minutes, 223rd nationally, and took 43.2% of their shots from three. One weakness to watch is rim protection: their block rate of 6.4% ranked 339th.
Those numbers come with a caveat. Pedon added forwards Noah Cleveland, a former Division III All-American, and Louie Semona, plus guards Deng Garang from LeMoyne and Demarion Burch. Last season's profile is a starting point for this roster, not a description of it.
Who's back for the Redbirds
Walker headlines the returners. He reached his 1,000th career point in last spring's NIT game against Dayton. Johnny Kinziger, Mason Klabo and Ty Blake are also back, giving the newcomers a base to fit around. Central State's side is murky, though: its online roster listings don't match, and its coaching situation isn't confirmed for this season.
Key players
- Chase Walker (Illinois State): Walker passed 1,000 career points in last spring's NIT game against Dayton and anchors the returning group.
- Louie Semona (Illinois State): Semona arrives as a 2025 All-NEC second-team selection and is one of two new forwards in Pedon's frontcourt.
Numbers that matter
| Defensive rebound rate, last season | 74.5% | This ranked 19th nationally and was Illinois State's clearest strength in 2025-26. |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted defensive efficiency, last season | 102 | This ranked 59th of 365 and set the Redbirds' defensive identity heading into the rebuild. |
| Pace, last season | 66.8 | At 223rd nationally, Illinois State's slower tempo tends to hold down possession counts. |
| Block rate, last season | 6.4% | This ranked 339th, so the Redbirds defended without much shot-blocking. |
Central State (OH) vs Illinois State: quick answers
When is Central State (OH) vs Illinois State?
Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.