VMI vs SMU prediction: SMU's reshuffled roster opens against VMI's three-point barrage

SMU starts over in the backcourt

SMU went 20-14 last season, and its final adjusted net efficiency ranked 41st of 365, which measures points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents. Little of that team is left. Players on this season's roster logged only 38.7% of last season's minutes and 31.9% of its points.

The departures hit the ball handlers hardest. Boopie Miller, who averaged 19.1 points and 6.4 assists, is gone. So is Jaron Pierre Jr. and his 17.6 points per game. B.J. Edwards left for Oklahoma, and starting center Samet Yigitoglu went to Indiana. Andy Enfield, who coached last season's team, has to find new creators.

The core that returns was efficient in a supporting role. Corey Washington started all 34 games, scored 11.4 a night and shot 38.8% from three. Jaden Toombs, a center, made 56.8% of his shots off the bench. With this much turnover, last season's team numbers are a loose guide to the group that takes the floor on Nov. 5.

VMI lives behind the arc

VMI's identity last season was unmistakable: 54.0% of its shots came from three, the second-highest share in Division I. The makes didn't follow. The Keydets hit 32.9% from deep, 250th nationally, and finished 6-26.

That style runs into a defense that let opponents fire away. SMU's opponents took 47.7% of their shots from beyond the arc last season, 11th-most in the country. With a new rotation, SMU's perimeter defense is an open question, and VMI's volume makes it the first thing to watch. A hot shooting night is the Keydets' clearest path to keeping this close.

The Mustangs can answer in kind. They made 37.1% of their threes last season, 29th nationally, though many of those attempts left with Pierre and Miller. Washington and Jermaine O'Neal Jr. are the returning shooters.

The glass tilts toward SMU

Rebounding was VMI's deepest hole last season. The Keydets grabbed 65.3% of opponents' misses, 345th nationally, and just 26.5% of their own, 331st. SMU attacked the offensive glass, rebounding 35.4% of its misses to rank 46th.

Size backs that up. SMU's rotation averages 79.1 inches weighted by minutes, against 76.8 for VMI. The Keydets do take care of the ball: their turnover rate of 14.7 per 100 possessions ranked 43rd last season. That limits cheap giveaways, but a steady stream of SMU second chances would erase that edge.

A long trip and an open line

This game opens a Texas swing for VMI, which visits SMU and then UTSA in a Nov. 5-7 stretch. Andrew Wilson remains the Keydets' head coach. The SoCon coaches picked VMI ninth, yet they also named guard Rickey Bradley Jr. preseason player of the year, making him the one VMI name to track.

No spread or total has been posted. When one arrives, its starting point will be last season's final adjusted ratings, which had SMU at 41st and VMI at 358th. How much books trust that gap, given how much of SMU's production left, is the market question. SMU's injury listing shows no injuries, though that page is undated. Two schedule listings disagree on the tip time, so confirm it before the game.