VMI Keydets vs UTSA Roadrunners prediction: VMI's breakneck tempo tests UTSA's rebuilt, rebounding-poor roster
The Keydets are playing faster than almost anyone in the country, and an almost entirely new UTSA team has to keep up while protecting a defensive glass that leaked badly in its opener.
| Spread | UTSA -5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 163.5 |
- Expect a fast, high-possession game where UTSA's turnover pressure fights VMI's edge on the offensive glass.
- TJ Johnson against UTSA's perimeter defense: he is hitting 41.2% from three for a VMI team built around his shooting.
- UTSA is -4.5, down from -6, and the total climbed from 158 to 163.5; VMI's pace ranks 7th nationally.
Possessions, and lots of them
VMI went 6-26 last season and UTSA went 5-25, so neither program arrives with a reputation to protect. What makes this one worth watching is the speed. Through two games the Keydets are averaging 84.8 possessions per 40 minutes, seventh-fastest in Division I.
One of those games was a rout of Virginia-Lynchburg, so the figure probably runs hot. Even so, VMI played at 68.5 possessions last season, and the jump points to a deliberately quicker team under Andrew Wilson.
The market has noticed. The total was 158 when our feed first saw this game and sits at 163.5 now. Both teams' lone lined game this season went over, and both trailed by roughly 20 at halftime of those games, so neither defense has slowed anyone down yet.
Turnovers against second chances
The sharpest edges on each side live in the possession battle. UTSA forced turnovers on 27.6% of San Jose State's possessions (turnover rate is giveaways per 100 possessions), 35th in the country. VMI has given it away at an 18.9% rate, 231st. A UTSA backcourt with KJ Tenner and Isaiah Watts, who had three steals in the opener, can feed its offense that way.
The counter is the glass. UTSA grabbed only 50.0% of San Jose State's misses, 358th of 363. VMI rebounds 37.0% of its own misses, 128th. If the Keydets turn misses into second shots at anything near that clip, they can erase what the Roadrunners gain from their takeaways. Paulius Narvilas does little scoring, but his work on the boards is the piece of VMI's frontcourt that fits this matchup.
Johnson's range, UTSA's volume
TJ Johnson is VMI's constant. The preseason all-SoCon forward is averaging 18.0 points and shooting 41.2% from three. He led the Keydets with 19 at SMU, his second straight game as their top scorer. UTSA's defense let San Jose State post a 67.9% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times), 362nd of 363.
The swing piece is Rickey Bradley Jr. The league's coaches made him preseason player of the year, but his shot hasn't followed him yet, even while he uses 30.9% of VMI's possessions on the floor. A clean shooting night from him changes the math.
UTSA will fire back from deep. In its opener 54.0% of its shots were threes, 18th-highest nationally. Preston Turner, who made 44.8% of his threes at Eastern Illinois last season, took a team-high volume. VMI's 1-3-1 zone, which shifts into 2-3 and 3-2 looks, has allowed opponents 39.2% from three, 325th.
Strangers at home, a tired road team
UTSA is close to a blank slate. Players back from last season account for only 13.1% of last year's minutes, and sophomore guard Dorian Hayes is the notable returner. Nick Bowman coached the opener as acting head coach. The school hasn't explained the title, and Austin Claunch's status is unconfirmed. South Dakota transfer Shey Eberwein was the bright spot off the bench, going perfect from the floor.
VMI is on a rare trip to Texas, two days after a 95-70 loss at SMU. UTSA has had five days of rest before its home opener. No new injury reports have surfaced for either team.
The line has drifted toward VMI, from UTSA -6 to -4.5, even with the Keydets playing on short rest. Both teams failed to cover their only lined game, so the early ATS records say little.
VMI Keydets vs UTSA Roadrunners line movement and odds
| Book | Keydets ML | Roadrunners ML | Keydets spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +180 | -220 | +5.5 (-110) | o163.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +170 | -220 | +4.5 (-108) | o163.5 (-112) |
| DraftKings | +180 | -218 | +5.5 (-112) | o163.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +175 | -210 | +5.5 (-110) | o163.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +180 | -220 | +5.5 (-115) | o163.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +188 | -230 | +5.5 (-112) | o162.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +175 | -225 | +4.5 (-105) | o163.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +180 | -220 | +5 (-110) | o163.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on VMI Keydets vs UTSA Roadrunners
On the Kalshi moneyline: VMI Keydets: 39% of bets, 10% of the money; UTSA Roadrunners: 61% of bets, 90% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: UTSA Roadrunners -3.5: 94% of bets, 61% of the money; VMI Keydets +3.5: 6% of bets, 39% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 161.5: 88% of bets, 26% of the money; Under 161.5: 13% of bets, 74% of the money.
VMI Keydets vs UTSA Roadrunners stats (this season)
| Stat | VMI Keydets | UTSA Roadrunners |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 97.4 (339th of 365) | 99.1 (327th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 123.7 (359th of 365) | 118.5 (332nd of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -26.3 (358th of 365) | -19.4 (339th of 365) |
| Pace | 84.8 (7th of 364) | 75.0 (87th of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 47.7% (266th of 363) | 52.4% (187th of 363) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 55.2% (293rd of 363) | 67.9% (362nd of 363) |
| Turnover rate | 18.9% (232nd of 363) | 18.9% (231st of 363) |
| Offensive rebound % | 37.0% (129th of 363) | 23.1% (323rd of 363) |
| 3-point % | 35.4% (132nd of 363) | 35.3% (134th of 363) |
| Free throw rate | 33.6% (205th of 363) | 20.6% (341st of 363) |
Key players
- TJ Johnson (VMI): Averaging 18.0 points on 41.2% three-point shooting after scoring 18.3 per game last season.
- Rickey Bradley Jr. (VMI): Carries a 30.9% usage rate but has a 35% effective field goal percentage through two games.
- Rokas Zilys (VMI): Averaging 11.0 points off the bench and has made 3 of 6 threes.
- Alexander Daushvili (VMI): Shooting 54.5% from the floor with 6.0 rebounds per game.
- Preston Turner (UTSA): Scored 15 in the opener on 4-of-11 shooting from three with a 40.8% usage rate.
- KJ Tenner (UTSA): Ran the offense for 31 minutes in the opener with six assists.
- Shey Eberwein (UTSA): Went 5 of 5 from the floor for 15 points off the bench at San Jose State.
- Isaiah Watts (UTSA): Had three steals in the opener but shot 2 of 11.
Numbers that matter
| VMI pace | 84.8 | Possessions per 40 minutes, 7th in Division I, far above last season's pace. |
|---|---|---|
| UTSA defensive rebound % | 50.0% | Ranks 358th of 363, against a VMI team rebounding 37.0% of its own misses. |
| UTSA forced turnover rate | 27.6% | Ranks 35th, against a VMI offense that turns it over at an 18.9% rate. |
| Total | 163.5 | Up from 158 when our feed first saw the game. |
| Spread | -4.5 | UTSA's number has moved down from -6, toward VMI. |
VMI Keydets vs UTSA Roadrunners: quick answers
Who is favored in VMI Keydets vs UTSA Roadrunners?
UTSA is favored by 5 points (UTSA -5).
What is the over/under for VMI Keydets vs UTSA Roadrunners?
The total is 163.5 points.
When is VMI Keydets vs UTSA Roadrunners?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.
Where is VMI Keydets vs UTSA Roadrunners played?
UTSA Convocation Center, San Antonio, TX.
Has the line moved for VMI Keydets vs UTSA Roadrunners?
No: VMI Keydets has stayed at +5.5, and the total moved from 157.5 to 163.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on VMI Keydets vs UTSA Roadrunners?
On the Kalshi moneyline: VMI Keydets: 39% of bets, 10% of the money; UTSA Roadrunners: 61% of bets, 90% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: UTSA Roadrunners -3.5: 94% of bets, 61% of the money; VMI Keydets +3.5: 6% of bets, 39% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 161.5: 88% of bets, 26% of the money; Under 161.5: 13% of bets, 74% of the money.