SE Louisiana Lions vs Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans prediction: SE Louisiana's three-point barrage tests Little Rock in Travis Ford's home debut
Two nearly brand-new rosters collide in Little Rock's regular-season home opener, where SE Louisiana's shooting volume runs into a Trojan team that wants to win inside and at the line.
| Spread | Little Rock -9.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 145.5 |
- Little Rock likely works inside through Jah'Likai King while SE Louisiana hoists threes; the free-throw line could decide the margin.
- Watch SE Louisiana's three-point volume against a Little Rock defense that let VCU take 48.1% of its shots from deep.
- Little Rock is now -10 with a 146.5 total; the spread has moved from -5.5 and the total from 147.5 since our feed first saw them, and the Trojans covered as 19-point underdogs at VCU.
Two rosters built from scratch
Neither bench will recognize much from a year ago. Little Rock returns just 2.2% of last season's minutes, and SE Louisiana brings back 2.7%. Travis Ford, hired in March after Darrell Walker was fired, brought in 14 new players: transfers, international players, junior college guys and freshmen. Freshman Terrion Burgess is the lone holdover from the previous staff. David Kiefer, in his eighth season at SE Louisiana, rebuilt his rotation largely through the portal, with Bryant, Army, Nevada and East Carolina all represented.
That makes last season's numbers a weak guide. For the record, SE Louisiana finished last season 283rd in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) and Little Rock 310th, but almost none of those players are on the floor Saturday.
The only fresh evidence is one road loss apiece. Little Rock fell 82-72 at VCU and covered comfortably as a 19-point underdog. SE Louisiana was routed 92-59 at Auburn and failed to cover as a 29.5-point underdog. This is the Trojans' regular-season home opener and the first for Ford at the Jack Stephens Center.
Threes against the paint
The two offenses could hardly look more different. SE Louisiana took 49.3% of its shots from three at Auburn, one of the higher rates in the country, and made only 24.2% of them. Little Rock went the other way, with a three-point attempt rate of 27.1%, 353rd of 363.
The Lions' best sign was Quincy Allen, the Bryant transfer who went 4-of-8 from deep and led the team in scoring. Beyond him, the shooting was cold: point guard Tyler Rolison, Jackson Furman and Ashley Sims II combined to miss most of their looks. If Allen has help, Little Rock's defense gives SE Louisiana room to fire, since VCU got 48.1% of its shots from three against the Trojans.
Little Rock's offense runs through Jah'Likai King, the UMBC transfer who scored 27 on 9-of-13 shooting at VCU. Pittsburgh transfer Papa Amadou Kante gave the Trojans an efficient presence inside with 13 points. The pressure is on Abilene Christian transfer Bradyn Hubbard, a high-volume scorer last season who managed one field goal in the opener.
The whistle and the glass
Little Rock's biggest problem at VCU was fouling. The Trojans allowed a free throw rate (free throws attempted per field goal attempt) of 92.3%, last of 363 Division I teams. Against SE Louisiana, that habit is less costly than it looks: the Lions made 57.9% of their free throws at Auburn. Little Rock, by contrast, hit 81.0% from the line.
Ball security is where the Trojans can give the game back. Their turnover rate of 22.9 per 100 possessions ranked 312th after one game, and an offense with few assists leans heavily on King and Aaron Clark creating off the dribble.
Both teams struggled on the defensive glass, but SE Louisiana was worse, rebounding only 52.8% of Auburn's misses. Little Rock's offensive rebounding was a strength at VCU, and with SE Louisiana missing so many threes, long rebounds should give the Trojans extra possessions.
Where the number sits
Little Rock is -10 with a total of 146.5, and both numbers have moved since our feed first recorded the lines: the spread has gone from -5.5 to -10 and the total from 147.5 to 146.5, with nine books quoting. The home side also has the fresher legs, coming off five days of rest to SE Louisiana's three.
The availability picture is quiet. No injuries were listed for SE Louisiana as of Nov. 5, and no availability news has surfaced for Little Rock. With two teams this new, the line rests more on venue and the Trojans' competitive showing at VCU than on any track record.
SE Louisiana Lions vs Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans line movement and odds
| Book | Lions ML | Trojans ML | Lions spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +360 | -525 | +9.5 (-115) | o144.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +335 | -480 | +9.5 (-120) | o145.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | +370 | -485 | +9.5 (-108) | o144.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +360 | -500 | +9.5 (-110) | o144.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +360 | -475 | +9.5 (-105) | o144.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +420 | -580 | +9.5 (-102) | o144.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +325 | -475 | +9.5 (-120) | o145.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +328 | -430 | +9.5 (-110) | o144.5 (-110) |
SE Louisiana Lions vs Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans stats (this season)
| Stat | SE Louisiana Lions | Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 99.2 (325th of 365) | 101.7 (299th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 110.2 (198th of 365) | 116.0 (303rd of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -11.0 (283rd of 365) | -14.3 (310th of 365) |
| Pace | 71.5 (173rd of 364) | 70.0 (217th of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 35.8% (352nd of 363) | 46.6% (276th of 363) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 60.3% (339th of 363) | 46.2% (154th of 363) |
| Turnover rate | 19.7% (252nd of 363) | 22.9% (312th of 363) |
| Offensive rebound % | 35.3% (147th of 363) | 38.2% (110th of 363) |
| 3-point % | 24.2% (319th of 363) | 31.2% (216th of 363) |
| Free throw rate | 28.4% (272nd of 363) | 35.6% (179th of 363) |
Key players
- Jah'Likai King (Little Rock): The UMBC transfer scored 27 points on 9-of-13 shooting in the opener at VCU.
- Aaron Clark (Little Rock): He averaged 15.2 points at Pepperdine last season and scored 11 at VCU.
- Papa Amadou Kante (Little Rock): The Pittsburgh transfer posted 13 points and 7 rebounds against VCU.
- Bradyn Hubbard (Little Rock): He averaged 16.2 points at Abilene Christian last season but went 1-of-4 at VCU.
- Quincy Allen (SE Louisiana): The Bryant transfer scored 16 points and hit 4 of 8 threes at Auburn.
- Jackson Furman (SE Louisiana): He shot 34.7% from three at Army last season but went 1-of-5 at Auburn.
- Tyler Rolison (SE Louisiana): The Nevada transfer handed out 4 assists at Auburn but shot 2-of-9.
- Logan Suber (SE Louisiana): He added 9 points and 6 rebounds on 3-of-6 shooting against Auburn.
Numbers that matter
| Little Rock returning minutes | 2.2% | Ford's roster is almost entirely new, so last season's Little Rock numbers say little about this team. |
|---|---|---|
| Little Rock opponent free throw rate | 92.3% | Last in Division I after the VCU game, though SE Louisiana shot just 57.9% at the line in its opener. |
| SE Louisiana 3-point attempt rate | 49.3% | Nearly half the Lions' shots came from deep at Auburn, where they made 24.2%. |
| Little Rock turnover rate | 22.9 | Ranked 312th after one game and the likeliest way the Trojans give back their edge. |
| Spread | -5.5 | Little Rock's number hasn't moved since our feed first recorded it. |
SE Louisiana Lions vs Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans: quick answers
Who is favored in SE Louisiana Lions vs Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans?
Little Rock is favored by 9.5 points (Little Rock -9.5).
What is the over/under for SE Louisiana Lions vs Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans?
The total is 145.5 points.
When is SE Louisiana Lions vs Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
Where is SE Louisiana Lions vs Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans played?
Jack Stephens Center, Little Rock, AR.
Has the line moved for SE Louisiana Lions vs Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans?
Yes: SE Louisiana Lions opened +5.5 and is now +9.5, and the total moved from 147.5 to 144.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).