Virginia vs Maryland prediction: Virginia's ball hawks test Maryland's glass crashers in old rivalry

Possessions are the whole fight

The longest series in Maryland men's history resumes with the programs headed in opposite directions. Virginia arrives ranked No. 9 after a 30-win season. Maryland is trying to bury a 12-21 year under a nearly new roster. Both coaches are still learning what they have, and the first clues point straight at the possession battle.

Virginia's defense swarmed Drexel. Its steal rate (steals per opponent possession) of 24.0% ranks 4th nationally after one game, and it forced turnovers on 28.0% of possessions. That is a sharp break from last season, when Virginia's forced turnover rate ranked 284th, and it hints at a more aggressive defense under first-year coach Ryan Odom. Maryland gave the ball away on 17.8% of its possessions against Bucknell, a middling mark that will be tested.

Maryland's answer came off the rim. The Terps grabbed 63.6% of their own misses, the top offensive rebound rate in the country so far. Virginia's defensive rebounding was strong in its opener too, ranking 47th. These are one-game numbers against weak opponents, but they describe the trade each team wants: Virginia wants live-ball turnovers and fewer Maryland shots, and Maryland wants second shots to make up the difference.

Who carries each team

Virginia's core is familiar. Thijs De Ridder scored 24 with 9 rebounds against Drexel after averaging 15.6 points last season, and Sam Lewis added 20 on 4-of-6 shooting from three. Lewis made 40.3% of his threes last season, so the hot start fits his track record. The worry is point guard Chance Mallory, who committed six turnovers in his first 16 minutes of the opener. With only two true centers on the roster, De Ridder could slide to center, and Johann Grunloh brings rim protection after blocking 2.2 shots per game last season.

Maryland leans on a returner and a transfer class. Andre Mills posted 22 points and 11 rebounds in 23 minutes against Bucknell. Pharrel Payne, a preseason All-Big Ten pick who missed most of last season with injury, went 5 of 6 from the floor. Mike McNair Jr. shot 44.4% from three at Boston University last season and is the shooter Maryland needs. Five-star freshman Baba Oladotun came off the bench for 7 points and 2 blocks. As a team, the Terps blocked shots at a rate that ranks 8th, a real obstacle if Virginia drives into the paint.

Slow starts and game shape

Maryland's opener followed a pattern the Terps want to break. They trailed Bucknell twice before a 21-5 run to close the first half, and slow starts have been a theme as Buzz Williams sorts out his rotation in his second season. Virginia did the opposite against Drexel, leading 51-27 at the break.

Tempo could also look different from last season. Virginia ranked 261st in pace a year ago but played at 75.5 possessions per 40 minutes in the opener. If Odom's defense keeps forcing turnovers, the pace rises with it, and transition chances against a Maryland team still learning each other favor the visitors.

An old rivalry, new rosters

Maryland leads the series 108-77, and this is the second game of a four-game set. The Terps' 2014 overtime win ended a 13-game Virginia winning streak. The former ACC rivals now meet as nonconference opponents.

Last season's final adjusted ratings put Virginia 18th in net efficiency and Maryland 131st, but that gap is a weak guide for Maryland. The Terps return just 24.5% of last season's minutes, while Virginia brings back 51.4%. Both teams will have had more than a week off: Virginia 10 rest days, Maryland 11.

Guard Guillermo Del Pino sat on the bench injured for the Bucknell opener, cause undisclosed, and his status for Nov. 13 is unknown. Nothing has surfaced on Virginia injuries.

No spread or total has been posted yet. Both teams won their openers by 29 and still failed to cover: Virginia closed at -31.75 against Drexel and Maryland at -31.5 against Bucknell. Both games went over.