VCU Rams vs Memphis Tigers prediction: Memphis's rebuilt Tigers try to prove the Iowa State upset was real
Penny Hardaway's almost entirely new roster opens at FedExForum as a home underdog to the A-10 favorite, and the free throw line may decide how far that number is off.
| Spread | VCU -2 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 159 |
- Expect a foul-heavy, physical game where VCU's offensive rebounding tests a Memphis team that has struggled to finish defensive possessions.
- Torey Alston on the offensive glass against Memphis's thin frontcourt, which is without Nemanja Popović.
- VCU is a 2.5-point favorite after our feed first saw Memphis at -1.25, despite Memphis beating a team ranked 7th in adjusted net efficiency.
A new team with a real win
Memphis went 13-19 last season, and almost nobody from that group remains: players on this roster logged just 11.2% of last season's minutes. That makes last season's numbers close to useless as a guide. The only evidence that counts came five days ago, when the Tigers beat Iowa State 80-76 on a neutral floor as 15.25-point underdogs. Iowa State ranks 7th nationally in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), so that was no soft opener.
Northwestern transfer Jayden Reid carried it with 26 points on a 31.4% usage rate, meaning he finished nearly a third of Memphis's possessions while he was on the floor. The shooting split is the caution flag. Memphis made 45.0% of its threes but only 40.0% of its twos, a profile that tends to swing from night to night.
Both teams live at the line
VCU's opener against Little Rock produced one striking number: a 92.3% free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt), 1st in Division I. That is one game against a weak opponent, but it fits a program that also ranked near the top of the country in getting to the line last season.
Memphis is the wrong opponent to slow that down. The Tigers allowed Iowa State a 55.2% free throw rate, 337th nationally. They also drew plenty of fouls themselves, ranking 18th in free throw rate. With two aggressive offenses and two defenses that reach, the whistle could shape both the margin and the total.
The glass favors VCU
VCU grabbed 40.9% of its own misses against Little Rock, 71st nationally. Memphis's defensive rebounding ranked 283rd in its opener, and the Tigers' thin frontcourt just got thinner. Nemanja Popović will remain sidelined for Memphis's next five games, and his eligibility appeal is unresolved as of early November. Hardaway has said FAU transfer Maxim Logue would start in his place, though Logue played only 12 minutes across two exhibitions.
That puts Torey Alston in a spot to do damage. The Middle Tennessee transfer came off VCU's bench for 17 points and 12 rebounds in the opener. If he keeps creating second chances, Memphis's hot shooting has to cover a lot of empty defensive possessions.
VCU's continuity, with a hole
First-year coach Phil Martelli Jr. inherited a defending A-10 champion that was picked first in the league again. VCU returns 59.4% of last season's minutes, including All-A-10 first-teamer Lazar Djokovic, A-10 Rookie of the Year Nyk Lewis and All-Defensive pick Brandon Jennings. The biggest loss was Terrence Hill Jr., who scored 15.0 points per game last season and is now at Tennessee.
The Rams will also be shorthanded in the backcourt. Guard Jordan Tillery was helped off the court with an apparent left knee injury against Little Rock, and he is expected to miss a matter of weeks. Martelli said the medical staff is cautiously optimistic it is a strain.
Where the line went
Our feed first saw Memphis as a 1.25-point favorite. The number has since flipped to VCU -2.5, with the total rising from 157.5 to 158.5. Both teams went under in their openers, and VCU failed to cover against Little Rock while Memphis covered easily.
The history is brief. Memphis leads the series 6-3, and the last meeting was an 85-80 overtime Memphis win at VCU in December 2023. This game opens a new home-and-home series, with Hardaway in his ninth season and Memphis picked second in the American.
VCU Rams vs Memphis Tigers line movement and odds
| Book | Rams ML | Tigers ML | Rams spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -135 | +110 | -1.5 (-115) | o159.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | -132 | +106 | -1.5 (-113) | o160.5 (-108) |
| DraftKings | -130 | +110 | -2.5 (-102) | o159.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | -135 | +115 | -1.5 (-115) | o160.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | -130 | +110 | -2 (-110) | o159.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -130 | +108 | -2.5 (-102) | o159.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -130 | +105 | -1.5 (-110) | o159.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | -135 | +115 | -2.5 (-110) | o159.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on VCU Rams vs Memphis Tigers
On the Kalshi moneyline: VCU Rams: 57% of bets, 80% of the money; Memphis Tigers: 43% of bets, 20% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: VCU Rams -2.5: 48% of bets, 68% of the money; Memphis Tigers +2.5: 52% of bets, 32% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 159.5: 79% of bets, 65% of the money; Under 159.5: 21% of bets, 35% of the money.
Key players
- Jayden Reid (Memphis): Scored 26 points on 6-of-11 shooting with a 31.4% usage rate against Iowa State.
- Luke Almodovar (Memphis): Added 18 points and 8 rebounds in the opener, hitting 3 of 8 from deep.
- Tylik Weeks (Memphis): Averaged 19.7 points at Southern Miss last season but shot 3 of 8 in his Memphis debut.
- Torey Alston (VCU): Posted 17 points, 12 rebounds and 2 blocks in 31 minutes against Little Rock.
- Lazar Djokovic (VCU): The All-A-10 first-teamer averaged 13.2 points last season and scored 15 in the opener.
- Nyk Lewis (VCU): Played 37 minutes with 15 points, 5 assists and 3 steals against Little Rock.
Numbers that matter
| Memphis returning minutes | 11.2% | Last season's Memphis numbers say little about this roster. |
|---|---|---|
| VCU free throw rate | 92.3% | Ranked 1st nationally after one game, against a Memphis defense that fouled heavily in its opener. |
| Memphis defensive rebounding rank | 283rd | A weak spot for VCU's offensive rebounders to attack, especially with Popović out. |
| Current spread | -2.5 | VCU is favored after our feed first saw Memphis at -1.25. |
VCU Rams vs Memphis Tigers: quick answers
Who is favored in VCU Rams vs Memphis Tigers?
VCU is favored by 2 points (VCU -2).
What is the over/under for VCU Rams vs Memphis Tigers?
The total is 159 points.
When is VCU Rams vs Memphis Tigers?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for VCU Rams vs Memphis Tigers?
Yes: VCU Rams opened +1.5 and is now -1.5, and the total moved from 158.5 to 159.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on VCU Rams vs Memphis Tigers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: VCU Rams: 57% of bets, 80% of the money; Memphis Tigers: 43% of bets, 20% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: VCU Rams -2.5: 48% of bets, 68% of the money; Memphis Tigers +2.5: 52% of bets, 32% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 159.5: 79% of bets, 65% of the money; Under 159.5: 21% of bets, 35% of the money.