UNC Wilmington Seahawks vs East Carolina Pirates prediction: Patrick Wessler tests a rebuilt East Carolina frontcourt at Minges

Wessler and the second chances

Patrick Wessler is the reason UNC Wilmington was picked to win the CAA. The center was named the league's preseason player of the year after averaging 13.6 points and 9.5 rebounds last season while shooting 59.9% from the floor. He opened this season with 14 points and 12 rebounds in 18 minutes against Mount Olive.

He walks into a soft spot. East Carolina lost Giovanni Emejuru, its starting forward who blocked 1.7 shots per game last season, and the Pirates' new frontcourt blocked just 5.1% of USC Upstate's two-point tries, 305th nationally. Upstate also made 56.4% of its twos.

The rebounding matchup points the same way. Last season UNCW grabbed 36.0% of its own misses, 36th in the country, while ECU's defensive rebounding ranked 294th. The Pirates' 66.7% defensive rebound rate against Upstate suggests the new group hasn't fixed that yet. Every UNCW miss that Wessler or Gavin Walsh (10 rebounds in the opener) tracks down is a possession ECU's shooters have to answer.

ECU finally found shooters

Last season's East Carolina could not throw it in the ocean: 28.8% from three, 361st of 365. That team is gone. Only 6.8% of last season's minutes return, and the transfers who replaced it shot the lights out in the opener. The Pirates made 12 threes against Upstate and hit 48.0% from deep.

Kaseem Watson (UTEP) went 3-of-4 from three and scored 17. Brycen Blaine, who averaged 17.2 points at Charleston Southern last season, added 14, as did Trevor Best. Cian Medley ran the show with 11 assists, though he shot 4-of-13.

UNCW's guards are the test. Last season the Seahawks held opponents to 29.8% from three, ninth nationally. Few of the defenders behind that number remain, but Siddle's system carries over. If ECU's shooting regresses toward something normal, its offense has little else to lean on: it made 46.9% of its twos in the opener.

Two rebuilds, one with a spine

Both programs turned over their rosters. UNCW returns 23.7% of last season's minutes from a team that went 27-7, losing guards Nolan Hodge, Greedy Williams, Noah Ross and Christian May. The difference is that Takayo Siddle, in his sixth season, kept his best player and added proven shooters: Tahlan Pettway hit 39.4% of his threes at Western Carolina last season, and William Kermoury hit 40.2% at Northeastern. Kermoury does not appear among UNCW's top opener contributors in the packet, and his status is unclear.

Michael Schwartz, in his fifth season, is rebuilding from an 11-20 team with essentially a new roster. That makes last season's numbers a weak guide for ECU in particular.

UNCW has won the last two meetings, including an 85-60 rout in Wilmington last November. Treat UNCW's opener cautiously: Mount Olive carries no Division I rating, so the 101-65 score tells you little.

Where the number sits

UNCW is a 3.5-point favorite on the road, with a moneyline of -170, and nine books are quoting it. Neither the spread nor the 149.5 total has moved since our feed first recorded the game.

The total depends on tempo, and both teams are hard to read. UNCW played at a 78-possession pace in its opener, but last season it ranked 233rd in pace. ECU's opener went over a 152 total, powered by that three-point barrage.

Availability looks clean but not certain. A Nov. 5 injury report listed no UNCW players. A CBS roster page carries an undated knee tag next to Walsh, which hasn't been confirmed, and Walsh played 22 minutes on Nov. 2. No ECU injuries have been reported, though no post-Oct. 25 report was found for the Pirates.

What to watch

• Wessler's touches early: if he draws fouls on ECU's new bigs, the Pirates' thin frontcourt gets thinner.
• ECU's three-point volume: a repeat of the opener keeps the home team within the number; a cold start exposes its 46.9% two-point shooting.
• Kermoury's status: a 40.2% shooter last season who did not log opener minutes.