UMass Lowell vs Merrimack prediction: Merrimack's rebuilt roster must fix the worst defensive glass in Division I

Second chances decide this

Merrimack won 23 games last season by smothering opponents' first shot and then handing over a second one. Opponents posted a 46.7% effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark where threes count 1.5 times), 23rd-best in Division I. Yet the Warriors finished 365th of 365 in defensive rebound rate, securing just 60.1% of opponents' misses.

UMass Lowell is built to exploit exactly that. The River Hawks grabbed 34.8% of their own misses last season, 61st nationally. The opener at Lawler Arena turns on whether a mostly new Merrimack roster has closed that hole on the glass.

Two-thirds of Merrimack is new

Last season's Merrimack numbers describe a team that largely no longer exists, which makes them a weak guide. The Warriors return 36.3% of last season's minutes and 28.8% of its points. Kevair Kennedy, who averaged 18.4 points, is gone, and Ernest Shelton is now at Boston College. KC Ugwuakazi, the reserve forward who blocked 2.2 shots a game, is also off the roster.

Tye Dorset is the anchor after playing 36.3 minutes a night and scoring 11.7 points. Todd Brogna, the other returning starter, shot 35.1% from three. Joe Gallo added five transfers and four freshmen, led by Iona guard Denver Anglin, who scored 9.3 a game but made only 29.9% of his threes. Brown's Lesburt and James Madison forward Elijah Wilborn add frontcourt bodies.

UMass Lowell's picture is less clear. Pat Duquette, in charge since 2013, has freshmen Jaden Flemons and Jasiah Cannady plus James Madison transfer Jerrell Roberson II. How much of last season's 15-18 team returns is unknown. America East coaches picked the River Hawks seventh of nine.

Lowell lives inside the arc

The River Hawks took just 30.9% of their shots from three last season, 340th nationally. That means their offense runs through the paint, straight into what was one of the country's best rim defenses. Merrimack blocked 13.9% of opponents' two-point attempts, 14th in Division I. Ugwuakazi's departure makes that the biggest unknown in Merrimack's defense.

Ball security is the other pressure point. Merrimack forced turnovers on 20.5% of possessions (30th), while UMass Lowell gave the ball away on 17.7% of its trips, 250th. If the River Hawks cough it up, their rebounding edge never gets a chance to matter.

A slow game with a closer's edge

Merrimack played at 63.1 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 357th nationally, while UMass Lowell ran at 68.9. Expect the hosts to drag this into a half-court game with fewer chances for either side.

Fewer possessions make a late finish more likely, and that favors the home side at the line. Merrimack made 78.8% of its free throws (7th), while UMass Lowell made 66.7%, 347th. Last season's final adjusted net ratings (scoring margin per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) had Merrimack 188th and the River Hawks 319th.

The recent series is split: Merrimack won 74-68 at home in December 2023, and UMass Lowell won 81-74 at home in November 2024. Both schools list a 7 p.m. ET tip.