UC San Diego vs Utah State prediction: Utah State's rebuilt Aggies wait on Mason Falslev's foot
Utah State returns about a quarter of last season's minutes, and its one returning star hurt his foot right before a UC San Diego team that has already won in Logan comes back.
- Utah State should lean on two-point scoring and the offensive glass; UC San Diego needs ball security and its transfer guards to keep it close.
- Watch Utah State's offensive rebounding against a Triton defense that ranked 40th in defensive rebound rate last season.
- No line is posted yet. Utah State covered as a 26.75-point favorite in its opener, and that game went under a 152.25 total.
Falslev's foot comes first
The last time UC San Diego visited Logan, it left with a 75-73 win in a building where Utah State had won 42 of its previous 45 games. Almost nobody from that Aggies roster remains. The biggest exception is senior guard Mason Falslev, and his right foot is the first question for the Nov. 13 rematch, which CBS lists for a 10 p.m. ET tip on the CW.
Falslev hurt the foot in practice the weekend before the Nov. 2 opener and was seen on crutches and in a boot. He still played against Idaho State, but he got into foul trouble and fouled out with 9 points. Utah State was also without a starting big man, who hasn't been named. As of Nov. 3 there was no word on either player's status for this game.
The stakes are real. Falslev averaged 16.0 points last season and shot 39% from three, and he is the one proven scorer the new staff inherited.
A new team in Logan
Ben Jacobson took over in March after Jerrod Calhoun left for Cincinnati, making him Utah State's fifth head coach in seven seasons. The roster turned over with him. Players on this year's team logged just 25.5% of last season's minutes, and leading scorer MJ Collins Jr. followed Calhoun to Cincinnati.
That makes last season's numbers a weak guide. The Aggies finished 26th nationally in adjusted net efficiency (points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), but that was a different team. The preseason KenPom projection, which slotted them 51st, is a better starting point for this group.
The opener showed how the new pieces fit. Sophomore wing Kingston Tosi scored 26 off the bench, and Virginia transfer Dallin Hall ran the offense with seven assists. The 94-58 rout came against Idaho State, which ranked 250th in adjusted net efficiency last season, so read it as a first look rather than a verdict.
Second chances in the paint
Utah State's first offense lived inside. The Aggies hit 68.9% of their twos, 36th nationally, and took only 27.4% of their shots from three, a rate that ranks 322nd. They also grabbed 51.7% of their own misses, 16th in the country. Offensive rebound rate is the share of a team's missed shots it gets back.
That sets up the cleanest matchup in this game. UC San Diego finished last season 40th in defensive rebound rate at 73.4%, and the Tritons won the glass in their opener too. Holding Utah State to one shot per trip would take away the extra possessions that buried Idaho State.
The risk for the Tritons is rim protection. They blocked 5.9% of opponent two-point tries in the opener, 270th nationally, and they ranked near the bottom in the same stat last season. If Hornseth and the Aggies' bigs get position, there is little help behind them.
The Tritons' steady hands
Clint Allard's second UC San Diego team keeps more of its core. Players on the roster logged 63.6% of last season's minutes for a 23-11 team that the Big West coaches picked second this year. Six transfers joined them, and two carried the opener. Florida Gulf Coast transfer Rahmir Barno had 19 points, and Loyola Chicago transfer Kayde Dotson scored 21 in 17 minutes off the bench.
Ball security could keep this close. The Tritons turned it over on just 10.0% of their possessions against Whittier, 15th nationally. Utah State coughed it up at a 19.2% rate, 218th. Those Triton numbers came against Whittier, though, and they needed a 60-31 second half after trailing at the break.
The Tritons also need their shooters. Alex Chaikin made 39.4% of his threes last season but went 1 of 8 in the opener. A night closer to his old form would test an Aggies perimeter defense that hasn't faced a real shooting team yet.
Key players
- Mason Falslev (Utah State): Averaged 16.0 points with a 126.1 offensive rating last season, but his right foot injury leaves his status unsettled.
- Kingston Tosi (Utah State): Scored 26 points off the bench in 27 minutes in the opener on 68.8% shooting.
- Dallin Hall (Utah State): The Virginia transfer handed out 7 assists in 34 minutes against Idaho State.
- Will Hornseth (Utah State): The Northern Iowa transfer scored 16 points on 66.7% shooting without attempting a three.
- Rahmir Barno (UC San Diego): The Florida Gulf Coast transfer posted 19 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists in his debut.
- Kayde Dotson (UC San Diego): Scored 21 points in 17 minutes off the bench and hit 4 of 9 threes.
- Treysen Eaglestaff (UC San Diego): The West Virginia transfer scored 16 points with a 77.8% effective field goal percentage.
- Alex Chaikin (UC San Diego): Shot 39.4% from three last season but opened 1 of 8 from deep.
Numbers that matter
| Utah State returning minutes | 25.5% | Players on the roster logged only about a quarter of last season's minutes, so last season's ratings say little about this team. |
|---|---|---|
| Utah State offensive rebound % | 51.7% | The Aggies ranked 16th nationally on the offensive glass in their opener. |
| UC San Diego defensive rebound % (last season) | 73.4% | Ranked 40th last season and the best counter to Utah State's second chances. |
| UC San Diego turnover rate | 10.0% | Ranked 15th in the opener, against a Utah State offense that turned it over at a 19.2% rate. |
| Utah State opener spread | -26.75 | The Aggies covered that number against Idaho State, and the game stayed under the 152.25 total. |
UC San Diego vs Utah State: quick answers
When is UC San Diego vs Utah State?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.