UAlbany vs Manhattan prediction: Manhattan's almost entirely new Jaspers host a remade UAlbany in Riverdale

A gym full of new faces

Manhattan will not look much like last season's team. Players on this season's roster logged just 7.4% of the Jaspers' minutes last season and scored 5.8% of their points. Four of last season's biggest contributors are gone, led by Jaden Winston at 15.3 points per game.

UAlbany has turned over almost as much. Only four players return for Dwayne Killings, now in his sixth season, and eight of the 11 additions have international roots spanning seven countries. Ollie Engen, a junior transfer from Queen's in Ontario, is set to start at point guard.

That makes last season's ratings a rough guide at best. UAlbany finished 2025-26 at 11-21 with an adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) of -15.7, 317th of 365. Manhattan went 12-20 and sat at -17.7, 330th. The two programs ended last season in roughly the same place, and neither brings back enough to say much more.

Who carries Manhattan now

The Jaspers' new offense runs through transfers. Ben Tweedy started all 33 games at Colgate last season, hit 38.5% of his threes and posted an offensive rating of 117, the best of anyone on this roster. Josiah Sabino arrives from Niagara after averaging 7.1 points and 4.6 rebounds in 21 minutes.

Quron Elliott is the main returner, a sophomore guard who came off the bench in all 30 of his appearances. His 11.6 minutes a game last season mark how small the inherited core is. Expect John Gallagher to lean hard on the newcomers while rotations settle.

The glass could tilt early

The clearest edge in last season's numbers sits on the boards. UAlbany grabbed 33.8% of its own misses, 87th nationally. Manhattan's defensive rebound rate of 63.7% ranked 360th, near the bottom of Division I.

Size points the same direction. UAlbany's minutes-weighted height last season was 77.2 inches against Manhattan's 76.0. The Great Danes also blocked shots at a rate that ranked 59th, while the Jaspers ranked 342nd. Both rosters have changed, but a smaller Manhattan group built around guards will have to prove it can finish possessions.

The foul line as a tiebreaker

UAlbany struggled to get to the line and to convert once there last season. Its free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 24.2% ranked 364th, and it made just 66.1% of its attempts, 354th.

Manhattan was the opposite at the stripe. The Jaspers shot 79.5%, third nationally, and their defense kept opponents off the line with an opponent free throw rate that ranked 12th. Much of that shooting left with the departures, including Terrance Jones at 92.6%. Sabino, who made 90.9% at Niagara, gives the new group a reliable option late in a close game.

Kentucky first, then Riverdale

Manhattan opens its season at Kentucky on Nov. 3, so the Jaspers come home to Draddy Gymnasium days after a road game against a far bigger program. UAlbany opens the Challenge here before returning to Broadview Center to host Merrimack on Nov. 8.

The game is part of the inaugural America East-Metro Challenge, the first between two Division I conferences based entirely in the Northeast. UAlbany was picked sixth in its preseason poll, and Killings has made reaching his first NCAA Tournament the goal. Tip time hasn't been confirmed.