Troy vs NC State prediction: Adam Howard brings a rebuilt Troy back to his old NC State home

A homecoming for Howard

Adam Howard's most recent job before Troy was as an assistant at NC State. On Friday night he walks back into Lenovo Center as a head coach, one game into the job, with a roster almost nobody in the building has seen together for long.

Troy is the defending Sun Belt regular-season and tournament champion and went 22-12 last season with an NCAA Tournament trip. That team is gone. Players on this season's roster accounted for 9.0% of last season's minutes. Thomas Dowd is at Auburn, Cooper and Cobi Campbell are at Liberty, and Victor Valdes is at Georgia Tech, where Scott Cross, the coach Howard replaced, also landed. Howard added seven transfers, plus former NC State guard Jayme Kontuniemi, so last season's Troy numbers say little about this group.

NC State is also starting over under first-year coach Justin Gainey, but it kept more of its core. Its returners carried 28.1% of last season's minutes, and the two who came back, Lubin and Paul McNeil Jr., were among its most efficient players. Last season's final adjusted ratings had NC State 34th nationally in net efficiency and Troy 148th.

Troy's shots did not fall

Troy's opener against UMass was a shooting problem from start to finish. The Trojans posted an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 39.8, which ranks 314th of 348 teams so far. They made 25.0% of their threes, and Old Dominion transfer Robert Davis Jr. went 0-for-5 from deep.

NC State looked like the opposite against Campbell. The Wolfpack made 44.0% of their threes, and Lubin did not miss, going 8-for-8 from the field. That fits his profile: he shot 66.8% last season.

That is the matchup that matters most. Troy's block rate in the opener was 2.4%, which ranks 327th, so Lubin and the NC State bigs may find the rim open. Troy also ranked 271st in defensive rebound rate, the share of opponent misses it secures, which gives NC State second chances on the possessions it does miss.

Where Troy can steal possessions

The Trojans' best numbers in the opener came in the turnover battle. They gave the ball away on 13.0% of possessions, 56th nationally, and their steal rate ranked 84th. Donovan Oday did most of the damage, finishing with six steals to go with 21 points and 12 rebounds.

That is the one opening NC State left in its debut. The Wolfpack turned it over on 19.1% of possessions, 213th, even while routing Campbell. Last season's team ranked 12th in turnover rate, but those were mostly different guards. If Troy turns a dozen or so live-ball steals into layups, it can offset some of the shooting gap.

First halves and the market

NC State put its opener away before the break. It led Campbell 41-19 at halftime on the strength of a 35-2 run. Troy went the other way, trailing UMass 28-38 at the half and then giving up a 17-0 run midway through the game.

The betting results matched. NC State won but did not cover as a 23.5-point favorite. Troy lost outright after closing as a 2.75-point favorite at home. Both openers went under their totals.

No line had been posted for this game as of Wednesday. Both teams come in on 11 days' rest, so neither has a scheduling edge. In a nonconference game in Raleigh, the opening number will show how much credit the market gives NC State's debut versus Troy's rough start under Howard.