Towson vs Utah prediction: Towson's rebounding grind tests Utah's rebuilt, injury-dented defense

Utah's defense starts from the bottom

Utah's 10-22 finish last season, with a 2-16 Big 12 mark, came down to one end of the floor. The Utes allowed 120.0 points per 100 possessions, which ranked 357th of 365 in Division I. Opponents posted a 53.9% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes 1.5 times), 323rd nationally.

The good news for Alex Jensen, entering his second season, is that Towson is about the gentlest test of that defense a coach could ask for early on. The Tigers shot 30.3% from three last season, 341st in the country, and their effective field goal percentage of 47.7% ranked 339th. If Utah's defense is still where it was, Towson's shooting won't punish it the way Big 12 opponents did. If Towson still can't make shots, the Utes' improvement will be hard to judge from one night.

Towson lives on the offensive glass

Pat Skerry, at Towson since 2011-12, has built teams that win ugly, and last season's 19-15 group fit the pattern. The Tigers grabbed 36.6% of their own misses, 24th in the nation, which is how a team that shot so poorly still scored.

That is the matchup to watch. Utah secured just 68.4% of opponents' misses last season, 264th nationally, and it now plays without Keanu Dawes, who averaged 8.8 rebounds before transferring to Kansas. Utah's frontcourt took another hit when center Fynn Schott had surgery on his right leg; the program said in mid-September that he would miss the start of the season, and there has been no update since Sep. 18. Towson's roster also carries a bit more size, with a minutes-weighted average height of 77.6 inches against Utah's 76.9.

Who is left in Salt Lake City

Utah returns 58.3% of last season's minutes but only 49.2% of its points. The biggest loss is Terrence Brown, who averaged 19.9 points with a team-high usage rate and is now at North Carolina.

The offense now runs through Don McHenry, who scored 17.0 points per game last season and made 39% of his threes. His offensive rating of 121.3 (points produced per 100 possessions used) was the best of any returner, and he should see more of the ball with Brown gone. Seydou Traore is back as a two-way starter, though he shot 38.6% from the floor. James Okonkwo, who blocked a shot per game last season, becomes more important inside with Schott sidelined.

Utah opens the regular season against Long Beach State on Nov. 2, with an exhibition against Oregon still ahead on Oct. 21, so Towson comes in Utah's second regular-season game.

A slow game with few freebies

Both teams played slowly last season. Towson averaged 64.7 possessions per 40 minutes, 315th nationally, and Utah ranked 286th. Towson's defense held opponents to 66.1 points per game, 17th in the country, so possessions should be scarce and half-court heavy.

One Utah weakness gives Towson little to exploit: the Utes forced turnovers on just 13.8% of possessions, 349th nationally, but Towson does not create many itself (288th in forced turnover rate). Expect few easy baskets in either direction. Last season's final adjusted ratings, which account for schedule strength, rated Utah 122nd in net efficiency and Towson 161st, so the Utes' ratings were stronger than their 10-22 record suggests.