Toledo vs Michigan State prediction: Michigan State's rebounding edge looms over a reshuffled Toledo
The Spartans ranked second in the country on the defensive glass last season, Toledo ranked 301st, and the Rockets' top scorer now plays at Kansas.
- Michigan State should control the boards and the paint. Toledo's path to staying close runs through ball security and timely threes.
- Watch Anton Bonke and the Spartan frontcourt against a Toledo defense that allowed 55.7% on twos last season, 334th nationally.
- No spread or total is posted yet. The last meeting, in December 2025, ended Michigan State 92, Toledo 69 in East Lansing.
Second chances decide it
Tom Izzo's formula has never been complicated: get a stop, finish it with a rebound, then crash the offensive glass. Last season Michigan State grabbed 77.6% of available defensive rebounds, second of 365 teams. It also rebounded its own misses at the 12th-best rate in the country.
Toledo is the kind of opponent that formula feeds on. The Rockets ranked 301st in defensive rebound rate last season, which means extra possessions for a Spartan team that already turns long rebounds into easy offense.
The gap matters more because of who left East Lansing. Jaxon Kohler is at BYU, and starting center Carson Cooper is gone too. Izzo's answer is Anton Bonke, who averaged 8.3 rebounds and 1.5 blocks at Charlotte last season and is eligible immediately.
Toledo's soft middle
Defense was the weak half of Toledo's profile. Opponents posted a 53.8% effective field goal percentage against the Rockets last season (a shooting measure that counts threes as 1.5 makes), which ranked 316th. Inside the arc it was worse, with opponents making 55.7% of their twos.
That is a bad fit against a Michigan State offense that assisted on 67.6% of its made baskets, third in the country. Ball movement against a defense that can't protect the rim tends to produce layups.
Toledo did hold up in one area. The Rockets ranked 14th in opponent free throw rate, so the Spartans will likely have to score from the field rather than at the line.
Where Toledo can push back
The Rockets' offense gives them a way to keep the margin respectable. Last season they turned it over on just 14.7% of possessions, 45th nationally. Michigan State rarely takes the ball away, ranking 309th in forced turnover rate. Toledo should get a shot up on most trips.
The Rockets also made 36.7% of their threes, 37th in the country, though they took them at one of the lowest rates in Division I. Tempo is a smaller clash: Toledo played at the 84th-fastest pace while Michigan State ranked 247th. Izzo's team will be happy to grind.
Two rosters in transition
Michigan State returns 60.4% of last season's minutes, and the engine is Jeremy Fears Jr., the Big Ten Preseason Player of the Year, who withdrew from the NBA draft on May 27. He averaged 15.2 points and 9.3 assists last season. Coen Carr is back as a starter, Kur Teng and Jordan Scott return as shooters, and Kaleb Glenn has been cleared for full activity after missing last season with a torn patellar tendon.
Cam Ward sat out the exhibition against Incarnate Word with an ankle injury. Izzo said Ward would have been available for a regular-season game, but that update is undated and his status for Nov. 5 hasn't been confirmed.
Toledo's picture is murkier. Leroy Blyden Jr., who scored 16.4 points a game last season, is at Kansas. Sonny Wilson appears on the returning roster, but he has been reported at South Florida, and his status is unsettled. Sean Craig and center Austin Parks are back, and transfers Rich Barron (Providence), Sean Jones (Marquette) and Angel Montas Jr. are expected to contribute immediately. With that much churn, Toledo's 81.6% returning-minutes figure may overstate how much of last season's team is actually back.
The setting
Toledo opens at Arkansas State on Nov. 2 before coming to the Breslin Center. The trip starts what the school calls the toughest non-league schedule in program history, with a visit to Michigan also ahead. The game is listed for 8 p.m. ET on Peacock.
Last season's final adjusted ratings, which measure points scored and allowed per 100 possessions against the schedule played, show the gulf: Michigan State ranked 11th in net efficiency and Toledo 130th. Last December's meeting in East Lansing went the Spartans' way, 92-69.
Where the money is on Toledo vs Michigan State
On the Kalshi moneyline: Toledo: 33% of bets, 1% of the money; Michigan State: 67% of bets, 99% of the money.
Key players
- Jeremy Fears Jr. (Michigan State): The Big Ten Preseason Player of the Year averaged 15.2 points and 9.3 assists last season with a 131 offensive rating.
- Anton Bonke (Michigan State): He averaged 10.6 points, 8.3 rebounds and 1.5 blocks at Charlotte last season.
- Coen Carr (Michigan State): A 35-game starter last season, he averaged 12.0 points on 51.8% shooting.
- Kur Teng (Michigan State): He shot 38.1% from three on 147 attempts off the bench last season.
- Sean Craig (Toledo): He averaged 11.6 points and 7.2 rebounds last season with a 123.7 offensive rating.
- Austin Parks (Toledo): He shot 60.9% from the field and blocked 1.2 shots a game last season.
- Kyler Vanderjagt (Toledo): He made 38.8% of his threes last season, Toledo's best mark among likely returners.
Numbers that matter
| MSU defensive rebound rate (last season) | 77.6% | Second nationally, against a Toledo team that ranked 301st on the defensive glass. |
|---|---|---|
| Toledo opponent 2-point % (last season) | 55.7% | Ranked 334th, an inviting target for an MSU offense that ranked third in assist rate. |
| Toledo turnover rate (last season) | 14.7% | Ranked 45th, and Michigan State ranked 309th at forcing turnovers. |
| MSU adjusted net efficiency (last season's final) | 29.5 | Ranked 11th nationally; Toledo finished 130th. |
Toledo vs Michigan State: quick answers
When is Toledo vs Michigan State?
Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.
Where is the money on Toledo vs Michigan State?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Toledo: 33% of bets, 1% of the money; Michigan State: 67% of bets, 99% of the money.