Texas Southern vs Murray State prediction: Murray State's ball pressure greets a Texas Southern team still starting over
The Racers forced turnovers on nearly a third of Tennessee State's possessions in their opener, and Friday's home debut brings a Texas Southern roster with a new coach and few returners.
- Murray State should push the pace, turn Texas Southern over and pull away at home, as it did with a second-half run in its opener.
- Texas Southern's free-throw hunting against a Murray State defense that fouled heavily in its opener, with the Racers far better at the stripe.
- No line is posted yet. Both teams covered their openers, and Texas Southern covered as a 28.5-point underdog at Grand Canyon.
The Racers' defense set the tone
Murray State's home debut at the CFSB Center comes 11 days after an opener that showed what this rebuilt team wants to be. The Racers beat Tennessee State 94-64 in Sioux Falls, and an 18-4 second-half run turned a comfortable lead into a rout.
The defense did the damage. Murray State forced turnovers on 31.0% of Tennessee State's possessions, 20th in Division I after one weekend. It also held the Tigers to a 35.5% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times), 38th nationally.
That matters because it marks a sharp break from last season, when the Racers ranked 355th of 365 in defensive efficiency, or points allowed per 100 possessions. One game against a team ranked 192nd in adjusted net efficiency is a thin sample. But a defense that pressures the ball is a bad draw for an offense still learning each other's names.
Texas Southern starts over
Corey Lowery is in his first season after replacing Johnny Jones, who left for an LSU assistant job on April 7. The hire was messy: an August report said the board had rejected Lowery, then the school announced him on Aug. 20 after a 6-1 vote. Players joined students and alumni in a demonstration urging the school to keep interim coach Shyrone Chatman.
The roster turned over just as completely. Players back from last season's 12-18 team accounted for only 21.2% of its minutes, so last season's numbers say little about this group. Transfers such as Karris Bilal (Louisiana) started the opener.
That opener was a 79-103 loss at Grand Canyon, a team ranked 59th in adjusted net efficiency. Texas Southern trailed 37-48 at halftime and let Grand Canyon shoot 71.0% inside the arc, 335th nationally. Jason Kimbrough was the bright spot with 14 points on 66.7% effective shooting.
Living at the line
Texas Southern's best weapon against Grand Canyon was getting fouled. Its free throw rate, free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt, was 67.8%, 12th in the country. The Tigers took threes on just 27.1% of their shots, so they attack the paint and draw contact.
Murray State may oblige. Its defense allowed Tennessee State a 63.6% free throw rate, 330th nationally. The catch is conversion: Texas Southern made 62.5% of its free throws in the opener, while the Racers hit 82.8%, 35th in Division I. If this turns into a foul-heavy game, the better shooters are wearing home colors.
New Racers, faster game
Murray State also returns little, with 27.6% of last season's minutes back. Center Fred King left for Creighton, and transfers fill the gaps. Christian Jones started 34 games at George Washington last season, Shon Tupuola came from Valparaiso, and Kaden Magwood arrived from Auburn.
Roman Domon is the holdover who runs the offense. He scored 22 points on 8-of-16 shooting in the opener, with a usage rate of 34.6%, the share of possessions he finished. Magwood added 15 off the bench in 18 minutes.
The Racers played at 84 possessions per 40 minutes, ninth fastest nationally, and Texas Southern ran at 78 against Grand Canyon. Murray State made 61.9% of its twos, and Texas Southern's interior defense gave up far more than that. More possessions means more chances for the Racers' depth and pressure to show.
The early totals split. Murray State's opener stayed under a 165.25 closing total, while Texas Southern's went over 144. The Racers were picked first in the MVC preseason poll, and this game is an early chance to show why.
Key players
- Roman Domon (Murray State): Scored 22 points on 8-of-16 shooting in the opener after posting a 124.7 offensive rating last season.
- Brigham Rogers (Murray State): Shot 72.5% from the field at Belmont last season and went 4-of-7 in his Murray State debut.
- Kaden Magwood (Murray State): Scored 15 points in 18 minutes against Tennessee State.
- Brayden Shorter (Murray State): Hit 3 of 7 threes in the opener for 13 points.
- Jason Kimbrough (Texas Southern): Led the efficient scoring at Grand Canyon with 14 points and a 66.7% effective field goal percentage.
- Karris Bilal (Texas Southern): Carried a 41.1% usage rate in the opener but shot 20% from the field.
- Xander Wedlow (Texas Southern): Scored 13 points in 15 minutes on 83.3% shooting against Grand Canyon.
Numbers that matter
| Murray State forced turnover rate | 31.0% | Ranked 20th nationally after the opener, a threat to a Texas Southern roster with few returners. |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Southern free throw rate | 67.8% | 12th in Division I, the Tigers' main path to points. |
| Murray State free throw % | 82.8% | 35th nationally, compared with Texas Southern's 62.5% in its opener. |
| Texas Southern returning minutes | 21.2% | So little is back that last season's 12-18 team is a weak guide. |
| Murray State pace | 84 | Possessions per 40 minutes in the opener, ninth fastest in the country. |
Texas Southern vs Murray State: quick answers
When is Texas Southern vs Murray State?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.