Tennessee Tech vs Indiana prediction: Tennessee Tech's rebuilt defense faces a bigger Indiana after 106-point opener
Tobin Anderson's 13-newcomer roster scored at Mississippi State but could not get stops, and Indiana arrives with size, pressure and a deep rotation.
- Indiana's size and pressure should build an early lead, as it did in a 44-23 opening half against Eastern Illinois.
- Caleb Sanders, who scored 26 of his 28 after halftime in Starkville, against Indiana's bigger frontcourt led by Samet Yigitoglu.
- No line is posted yet. In openers, Tech covered as an 18.25-point underdog while Indiana failed to cover at -34.5.
The stops never came in Starkville
Tennessee Tech's first game under Tobin Anderson showed both sides of a team built almost from scratch. The Golden Eagles scored 88 at Mississippi State and still lost by 18, because the defense gave up 106 points and 53 of them in the first half.
The shooting numbers against them were severe. Mississippi State posted a 68.3% effective field goal percentage, a measure that counts threes as 1.5 field goals, which ranks Tech 299th of 303 teams so far. It was one game against a Bulldogs team rated 106th in adjusted net efficiency, so the sample is small. It is also the only evidence there is for this group.
Indiana's opener went the other way. The Hoosiers led Eastern Illinois 44-23 at halftime and won 91-57. If Tech's defense starts the way it did in Starkville, this game could be settled early.
Size and the free throw line
Indiana's portal rebuild added size up front, and the height numbers show it. The Hoosiers' minutes-weighted average height is 79.1 inches, compared with 76.4 for Tennessee Tech.
That size got Indiana to the line. Its free throw rate, free throw attempts per field goal attempt, sits at 55.2%, 39th nationally. Tech let Mississippi State shoot free throws at a 53.3% rate, 265th. Yigitoglu, the SMU transfer, grabbed seven rebounds and blocked two shots in 18 minutes in the opener.
Tech's offense did do damage inside. The Golden Eagles made 67.6% of their twos, 37th in the country, and Indiana allowed Eastern Illinois to shoot 61.1% inside the arc. Sanders is the reason. He shot 69.2% from the floor on a 28.5% usage rate, meaning a large share of Tech's possessions ended with him.
Indiana's hands against new guards
The Hoosiers' defense did most of its work by taking the ball away. Indiana forced turnovers on 31.9% of Eastern Illinois possessions, 13th nationally, with a steal rate that ranks 26th. Burton, Lindsay and Jaeden Mustaf combined for seven steals.
Tech protected the ball reasonably well in its opener, giving it away on 16.0% of possessions. Last season's team turned it over at a 19.2% rate, 328th of 365, but that tells you little now: Tech returns only 17.2% of last season's minutes. The backcourt is new, with transfers Trent Mosquera from Le Moyne, Cbo Newton from Abilene Christian and Caleb Hollenbeck from Marshall. That trio went 7 of 25 from three in the opener. Ty Owens, one of the few returners, came off the bench and handed out eight assists.
Two rosters, both starting over
Indiana also returns just 17.2% of last season's minutes, in Darian DeVries' second season after a first year that ended without an NCAA bid. Last season's adjusted net rating of 36th belongs mostly to players who are gone, including leading scorer Lamar Wilkerson.
The backcourt is already thinner. Freshman guard Prince-Alexander Moody hurt his knee in practice before the opener and arrived on crutches. DeVries said after the Nov. 2 game, "I don't anticipate having him back for an extended period of time." Burton has also been described as day-to-day with a finger injury that isn't considered serious. Indiana hasn't given a further update.
Burton and Lindsay are handling the ball early. Burton scored 19 points and made all three of his threes against Eastern Illinois, and Lindsay added 14 off the bench. Depth showed up too: nine Hoosiers played at least 15 minutes, and freshman Trevor Manhertz scored 11.
Anderson brings a reputation for big upsets. He led 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson past 1-seed Purdue in 2023. He now takes over a program in its first SoCon season, picked sixth in the league, that he says hasn't reached the NCAA Tournament in 63 years.
What to watch
- The first 20 minutes. Tech allowed 53 first-half points in its opener, while Indiana held Eastern Illinois to 23.
- Tempo. Tech played at 75.5 possessions per 40 minutes, 67th nationally, and Indiana played at 70. Both openers went over their closing totals.
- Burton's finger. With Moody out, Indiana's guard depth matters more if Burton is limited.
- Rest. Both teams have 10 days off before this game, so neither has a schedule edge.
Key players
- Caleb Sanders (Tennessee Tech): Scored a career-high 28 points on 69.2% shooting at Mississippi State, with 26 coming after halftime.
- Trent Mosquera (Tennessee Tech): Averaged 13.5 points at Le Moyne last season but opened 3 of 10 from three for Tech.
- Ty Owens (Tennessee Tech): One of Tech's few returners, he handed out eight assists off the bench in the opener.
- Markus Burton (Indiana): Scored 19 points and made all three of his threes in the opener while managing a day-to-day finger injury.
- Bryce Lindsay (Indiana): Scored 14 points off the bench, making 3 of 5 threes.
- Samet Yigitoglu (Indiana): Averaged 7.8 rebounds at SMU last season and had seven boards and two blocks in 18 minutes in the opener.
- Aiden Sherrell (Indiana): Blocked 2.2 shots per game at Alabama last season but opened at 27.3% from the floor.
Numbers that matter
| Tech opponent eFG% | 68.3% | Mississippi State's shooting in the opener ranks Tennessee Tech's defense 299th of 303 so far. |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana forced turnover rate | 31.9% | Ranks 13th nationally and puts pressure on Tech's almost entirely new backcourt. |
| Indiana free throw rate | 55.2% | Ranks 39th, against a Tech defense whose opponent free throw rate ranks 265th. |
| Returning minutes, both teams | 17.2% | Both rosters were rebuilt, so last season's ratings are a weak guide. |
| Indiana height edge | 79.1 | Indiana's minutes-weighted average height in inches, compared with 76.4 for Tennessee Tech. |
Tennessee Tech vs Indiana: quick answers
When is Tennessee Tech vs Indiana?
Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET.