Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs IUPUI Jaguars prediction: UT Martin's three-point barrage runs into IU Indy's breakneck pace
Two rebuilt rosters with one game of evidence each, and the market has already flipped toward the Skyhawks and pushed the total up.
| Spread | UT Martin -2 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 168.5 |
- Expect a fast, foul-heavy game at The Jim, with UT Martin's shooting and size trying to outlast IU Indy's push for extra possessions.
- UT Martin guard Davi Remagen, who scored 24 at Tulane, against an IU Indy backcourt that forced turnovers in bunches in its opener.
- UT Martin is now a 2.5-point favorite after the feed first showed IU Indy favored, and the total rose from 156 to 161.5.
A track meet at The Jim
IU Indy played its opener at 88.5 possessions per 40 minutes, the second-fastest pace in Division I, and poured in 54 first-half points on the way to a 113-76 win in the new James T. Morris Arena. The opponent matters here: Miami Middletown is not a Division I program, so those numbers describe a mismatch more than a ceiling.
The speed itself is not a fluke. Last season the Jaguars ranked 3rd nationally in pace, and Ben Howlett is back for his second season running the same system.
UT Martin usually wants fewer possessions. Last season's team ranked 306th in pace. The Tulane opener was a double-overtime 100-98 loss, which inflates every per-game figure the Skyhawks carry into this one. How many possessions IU Indy can drag out of a team built to slow down is the question the total hinges on.
Two rosters built from scratch
Neither team looks much like last year's. UT Martin returns 18.2% of last season's minutes, and IU Indy returns 13.2%. That makes last season's records, 22-11 for the Skyhawks and 7-25 for the Jaguars, a weak guide.
UT Martin's new core arrived fast. Remagen, a transfer who averaged 1.6 points at Georgia Tech last season, scored 24 in 25 minutes at Tulane. Freshmen Kaan Onat and Sasha Savkov each posted a double-double, with Onat grabbing 13 rebounds. UT Martin also brings real size: its minutes-weighted average height is 79.3 inches, against 76.2 for IU Indy.
IU Indy spread the scoring around in its opener. Kameron Tinsley, a returner from last season, added 17. Sixth-year guard Gus Etchison scored 26 in the exhibition loss at Austin Peay. No injury or eligibility news surfaced for either team.
Threes, fouls and the line
The Skyhawks let it fly at Tulane. Their 3-point attempt rate, the share of shots taken from deep, was 57.6%, 10th-highest in the country, and they made 44.7% of those tries. That is a sharp turn from last season, when the team shot 30.4% from three, 339th nationally. Savkov went 6 of 13 and Remagen 5 of 9.
The worry is at the other end. UT Martin's free throw rate allowed (opponent free throws per field goal attempt) was 69.7%, 359th of 363, and its forced turnover rate fell to 10.5% after ranking 16th last season. A defense that fouls and doesn't create turnovers hands a fast team easy points. UT Martin also made just 61.3% of its own free throws, which could matter late in a close game.
IU Indy took care of the ball against Miami Middletown, turning it over on 12.4% of possessions, but it gave up offensive boards. Its defensive rebound rate of 64.4% ranked 289th, an opening for UT Martin's bigger lineup.
The market has flipped
The first line our feed recorded had IU Indy favored by 2.5. Across 10 books, UT Martin is now a 2.5-point favorite, with the Skyhawks at -140 on the moneyline. The total has climbed to 161.5 from 156.
The move toward UT Martin rests on a quality opener: the Skyhawks covered as 6.25-point underdogs at Tulane and went over a 146.5 total. IU Indy has not played a game with a line yet. UT Martin is on the second stop of a three-game road swing and leads the series 2-0, though the teams have not met since 1978.
Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs IUPUI Jaguars line movement and odds
| Book | Skyhawks ML | Jaguars ML | Skyhawks spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -125 | +105 | -1.5 (-110) | o171.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | -115 | -108 | +0.5 (-115) | o170.5 (-115) |
| DraftKings | -125 | +105 | -1.5 (-105) | o171.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | -130 | +110 | -1.5 (-110) | o170.5 (-120) |
| Fanatics | -125 | +105 | -1.5 (-110) | o171.5 (-105) |
| FanDuel | -125 | +104 | -1.5 (-110) | o171.5 (-105) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -115 | -110 | -1.5 (+100) | o170.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | -125 | +105 | -1 (-110) | o171.5 (-110) |
Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs IUPUI Jaguars stats (this season)
| Stat | Tenn-Martin Skyhawks | IUPUI Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 99.7 (322nd of 365) | 105.1 (243rd of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 104.4 (86th of 365) | 119.6 (341st of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -4.7 (219th of 365) | -14.5 (311th of 365) |
| Pace | 68.4 (268th of 364) | 88.5 (2nd of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 59.8% (64th of 363) | 54.8% (152nd of 363) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 51.5% (245th of 363) | 42.4% (101st of 363) |
| Turnover rate | 18.8% (227th of 363) | 12.4% (48th of 363) |
| Offensive rebound % | 28.6% (252nd of 363) | 40.4% (81st of 363) |
| 3-point % | 44.7% (31st of 363) | 29.7% (239th of 363) |
| Free throw rate | 47.0% (75th of 363) | 34.9% (189th of 363) |
Key players
- Davi Remagen (UT Martin): Scored 24 points on 5-of-9 threes in 25 minutes at Tulane with a team-high 38.7% usage rate.
- Kaan Onat (UT Martin): Played all 40 minutes of the opener and posted 21 points and 13 rebounds.
- Sasha Savkov (UT Martin): Hit 6 of 13 threes for 20 points and added 10 rebounds at Tulane.
- Peyton Heiss (IU Indianapolis): Led the opener with 20 points, 6 assists and 4 steals in 24 minutes.
- Kameron Tinsley (IU Indianapolis): Added 17 points, 9 rebounds and 3 blocks after shooting 34.6% from three last season.
- Gus Etchison (IU Indianapolis): Scored 15 on 7-of-12 shooting in the opener after 26 in the exhibition at Austin Peay.
Numbers that matter
| IU Indy pace | 88.5 | Possessions per 40 minutes in the opener, 2nd in Division I, though against a non-Division I opponent. |
|---|---|---|
| UT Martin 3-point attempt rate | 57.6% | 10th-highest nationally, and the Skyhawks made 44.7% of those shots at Tulane. |
| UT Martin opponent free throw rate | 69.7% | 359th of 363, a fouling problem that could feed a fast IU Indy attack. |
| Total | 161.5 | Up from 156 when our feed first saw the game. |
| UT Martin returning minutes | 18.2% | Little of last season's elite defense is still on the roster. |
Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs IUPUI Jaguars: quick answers
Who is favored in Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs IUPUI Jaguars?
UT Martin is favored by 2 points (UT Martin -2).
What is the over/under for Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs IUPUI Jaguars?
The total is 168.5 points.
When is Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs IUPUI Jaguars?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.
Where is Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs IUPUI Jaguars played?
James T. Morris Arena, Indianapolis, IN.
Has the line moved for Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs IUPUI Jaguars?
Yes: Tenn-Martin Skyhawks opened +1.5 and is now -1.5, and the total moved from 156.5 to 171.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).