Stonehill vs Fordham prediction: Fordham's suffocating defense gets first home crack at turnover-prone Stonehill
Last season Fordham guarded like a top-25 defense and Stonehill gave the ball away like a bottom-20 offense, though two reshuffled rosters make that a starting point, not a verdict.
- Expect a slow, grinding game in the Bronx where Fordham's defense and rebounding try to cover for shaky shooting on both sides.
- Fordham's ball pressure against Stonehill's ball security: the Skyhawks turned it over on 20.0% of possessions last season, 347th nationally.
- No spread or total is posted yet; last season's final adjusted net ratings had Fordham 166th and Stonehill 333rd.
Stops versus giveaways
Fordham's identity last season was defense. The Rams allowed 99.1 points per 100 possessions, 21st of 365 teams, and held opponents to 65.5 points a game, 12th nationally. Their hands were active too: a steal rate that ranked 75th and a forced turnover rate of 18.0%.
That is a bad draw for a Stonehill offense that struggled to keep the ball last season. The Skyhawks gave it away on 20.0% of their possessions (turnover rate, or turnovers per 100 possessions), 347th in Division I, and scored just 102.0 points per 100 possessions, 331st. If those habits carry into November, Fordham's defense should decide this one before either team's shooting does.
Nobody makes it look easy
Don't expect a shootout. Fordham hit just 29.6% from three last season, 355th in the country, and lived at the line about as rarely as anyone, with a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) that ranked 358th.
Stonehill's defense is built to make that worse. The Skyhawks held opponents to 46.0% on twos, 21st nationally, and opponents attempted relatively few threes against them. Their own offense was no better: an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 48.0%, 333rd. Points will be earned in grind-it-out half-court sets.
Few possessions, long rebounds
Both teams played slow last season. Stonehill averaged 64.2 possessions per 40 minutes, 336th, and Fordham ranked 279th. Fewer trips magnify every turnover and every missed box-out.
The glass may be where Fordham builds its edge. The Rams grabbed 34.9% of their own misses, 59th nationally, and both teams cleaned up the defensive boards well, with Fordham 13th and Stonehill 31st in defensive rebound rate. In a game this low on possessions, a few extra second chances could matter.
New pieces on both benches
Treat last season's numbers as a rough guide. Mike Magpayo enters his second season at Fordham with five veterans back: Roor Akhuar, Abass Bodija, Akira Jacobs, Rikus Shulte and center Jack Whitbourn. Around them sit four transfers and four true freshmen, including Lateef Patrick, listed as arriving from Stephen F. Austin. The Rams come home for this one after a trip to Kansas, the first of three straight non-conference home dates at Rose Hill.
Stonehill counters with continuity on the sideline: Chris Kraus is entering his 13th season. This is also the Skyhawks' first season of NCAA tournament eligibility now that their reclassification period is over, which gives every early result a bit more weight for a program that went 12-21 last season.
Where the money is on Stonehill vs Fordham
On the Kalshi moneyline: Stonehill: 67% of bets, 58% of the money; Fordham: 33% of bets, 42% of the money.
Numbers that matter
| Fordham defensive efficiency, last season | 99.1 (21st) | The Rams' calling card was keeping opponents under a point per possession. |
|---|---|---|
| Stonehill turnover rate, last season | 20.0% (347th) | Ball security is the Skyhawks' biggest weakness against an active Fordham defense. |
| Fordham 3-point %, last season | 29.6% (355th) | Fordham's perimeter shooting is the main reason Stonehill could keep this one ugly. |
| Stonehill pace, last season | 64.2 (336th) | Two slow teams point to a low-possession game. |
Stonehill vs Fordham: quick answers
When is Stonehill vs Fordham?
Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.
Where is the money on Stonehill vs Fordham?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Stonehill: 67% of bets, 58% of the money; Fordham: 33% of bets, 42% of the money.