Stetson vs Howard prediction: Howard's veteran core opens Burr against Collin Kuhl's rebuilt Stetson

Continuity against a reshuffle

Howard won the MEAC regular-season and tournament titles last season, and most of that team is back. The Bison return 64.9% of last season's minutes. Stetson returns just 38.9% after a 12-21 season and lost leading scorer Ethan Copeland to Virginia Tech.

Last season's net efficiency (points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions) had Howard 48th nationally and Stetson 325th. That gap overstates things for Stetson, whose numbers from a year ago describe a mostly different roster. Howard has its own hole to fill: Bryce Harris, who averaged 17.3 points last season, is gone.

Howard's hands against new guards

Howard's defense was built on takeaways. Last season the Bison forced turnovers on 21.2% of opponent possessions, 12th in the country. That was a big reason they finished 23rd in defensive efficiency.

The opener at Yale showed the same instincts. Howard posted an 18.2% steal rate, 32nd among teams that have played, and Brown and Cam Gillus had four steals apiece.

Stetson's ballhandlers are mostly new. Thiago Sucatzky, a transfer from FIU, handed out six assists at Clemson, and Makhi Myles arrived from Southeastern Louisiana. The Hatters turned it over on 14.1% of possessions in their opener, which ranks 74th. Holding that against Howard's pressure is the first test.

Kuhl and the interior

Kuhl was named ASUN Preseason Player of the Year and played like it at Clemson. He scored 20 points in 21 minutes and used 40% of Stetson's possessions while on the floor. He shot 65.6% from the field last season, so his efficiency near the rim is nothing new.

Magnus Entenmann, a Kent State transfer, added 16 points on 70% shooting. Howard's front line answered well at Yale: opponents made only 39.0% of their twos, 58th nationally. Kuhl also scored 14 points when Stetson won the last meeting.

The glass and the line

Howard chased its own misses well at Yale, grabbing 42.0% of available offensive rebounds. Keeping the Bulldogs off the offensive glass was harder. Howard collected just 47.6% of Yale's misses, which ranks 298th.

Free throws could swing the game. Howard's free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) was 44.2% last season, seventh in the country. Stetson sent Clemson to the line at a 71.4% rate, which ranks 300th. The catch is that Howard made only 43.8% of its free throws at Yale.

Openers, rest and revenge

Both teams lost on the road Nov. 2 and get 10 days off before this one. Stetson fell behind 49-24 at halftime at Clemson, then made eight straight field goals late and covered as a 22.5-point underdog. Howard led Yale 10-6 before the Bulldogs ran off 13 straight points, and the Bison lost by 10 as 7.5-point underdogs.

This is Howard's first game at Burr Gymnasium this season. It is also a chance to answer last November's 64-60 loss in DeLand. Donnie Jones is in his eighth season at Stetson, and ASUN coaches picked the Hatters to finish sixth.