Southern Virginia vs Richmond prediction: Richmond's 10 newcomers get a low-stakes look against Southern Virginia
Three days after the opener, the Spiders have a home date with a non-Division I visitor to sort out a rotation rebuilt around AJ Lopez.
- Richmond should control this at home, much as it did in last season's 84-56 win over the same opponent.
- Watch how Chris Mooney spreads minutes between his returning guards and a newcomer class he calls his largest in 22 seasons.
- No spread or total has been posted. The 84-56 result last Nov. 5 is the only head-to-head reference.
A rotation still taking shape
The real opponent for Richmond on Nov. 5 may be its own depth chart. Mooney has 10 newcomers, the most in his 22 seasons on the job, including six incoming transfers such as Andrew Ball. Coming off a 15-17 season and picked ninth of 14 in the Atlantic 10 preseason poll, the Spiders need this early stretch to settle on who plays.
This is the second game of the season. Richmond opens Nov. 2 at home against UNC Asheville, so this one should reveal more about the rotation than about the final score. Southern Virginia is not a Division I team, and nothing statistical is known about this year's Knights beyond a roster that lists four freshmen.
The core that came back
Despite the newcomer count, players on this roster logged 72.2% of last season's minutes. AJ Lopez leads them. He started all 32 games last season and averaged 13.4 points, shooting 39.4% from three and 86.2% at the line.
Aiden Argabright mostly came off the bench last season and still posted a 128.9 offensive rating, a measure of points produced per 100 possessions. Center Mike Walz stretched the floor last season, hitting 38% from three. The biggest hole belongs to Will Johnston, who started every game and made 58 threes before leaving.
What last season's profile suggests
Last season Richmond protected the ball better than almost anyone, with a turnover rate of 14.2 per 100 possessions, 27th nationally. It shot 36.4% from three, which ranked 44th. The weak spots were on the glass and inside. Its offensive rebound rate of 25.3% ranked 346th, and opponents made 54.2% of their twos, 306th. With this many new faces, treat those numbers as a loose guide. Against a non-Division I opponent, the bigger question is whether the newcomers carry over the old team's ball security.
One scheduling note: an older Richmond schedule page lists Temple at the Palestra on this date. The Sept. 29 official release confirms Southern Virginia at the Robins Center at 7 p.m. Thursday.
Key players
- AJ Lopez (Richmond): Averaged 13.4 points last season while shooting 39.4% from three.
- Aiden Argabright (Richmond): Scored 10.8 points a game last season with a 128.9 offensive rating, mostly off the bench.
- Mike Walz (Richmond): Started all 32 games last season, averaging 6.4 rebounds and hitting 38% from three.
Numbers that matter
| Newcomers | 10 | The most Mooney has had in 22 seasons at Richmond. |
|---|---|---|
| Returning minutes | 72.2% | The share of last season's minutes played by players on this season's roster. |
| Last meeting | 84-56 | Richmond's home win over Southern Virginia on Nov. 5, 2025. |
| Turnover rate rank (last season) | 27th | Richmond's ball security was among the best in Division I last season. |
Southern Virginia vs Richmond: quick answers
When is Southern Virginia vs Richmond?
Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.