Southern Miss vs Texas State prediction: Texas State's returning core welcomes a rebuilt Southern Miss to San Marcos

Continuity against a rebuild

These programs know each other well. They split last season's two meetings, with Texas State winning 74-67 at home in January and Southern Miss taking an 81-77 decision on a neutral floor in March. Texas State has since left the Sun Belt for the Pac-12, and Terrence Johnson opens his seventh season with much of his core intact. The trip is a buy game for Southern Miss.

The biggest difference between the teams is who came back. Texas State returns 54.2% of last season's minutes. Southern Miss, under eighth-year coach Jay Ladner, returns just 15.1%, and its leading scorer, Tylik Weeks, left for Memphis after averaging 19.7 points. Last season's final adjusted net ratings (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) had Southern Miss 221st and Texas State 255th. With this much roster change, that gap tells you little about Friday.

Isaac Taveras is the Golden Eagles' main holdover. He averaged 15.3 points last season and led the 82-35 opening rout of Tougaloo with 12. That game, which was 45-12 at halftime, is the only basis for this season's Southern Miss numbers, so treat them with caution.

Two teams that live inside the arc

Neither side built its offense around the three last season. Texas State's 3-point attempt rate (threes as a share of shots) was 24.8%, ranked 364th of 365, meaning almost nobody shot fewer. Southern Miss ranked 353rd, and when it did shoot it made just 30.0%.

Texas State stayed in character in its opener, taking 26.5% of its shots from deep. DJ Hall scored a game-high 18, and center Robert Fields set career highs in his first career start. The wild card is Paul Djobet, who made 41.5% of his threes at Omaha last season. If he finds space, the Bobcats gain a perimeter option Southern Miss may not account for.

Southern Miss will try to answer with size and length around the rim. Anthony Igiede blocked four shots in the opener, and Little Rock transfer Cameron Wallace added 11 points and eight rebounds off the bench.

Southern Miss has to protect the ball

Turnovers are the Golden Eagles' clearest risk. Last season they gave the ball away on 19.1% of possessions, which ranked 324th. Even against Tougaloo, their turnover rate was 23.1%. Point guard Jalyke Gaines-Wyatt, a Hampton transfer, handed out five assists in the opener and will set the tone.

Texas State is built to punish mistakes. It forced turnovers on 24.6% of possessions against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, 76th nationally, and Kaden Gumbs averaged 1.9 steals last season.

The Bobcats' soft spot is the glass. They grabbed only 64.3% of opponents' misses in the opener, ranked 267th, so Wallace and Taveras on the offensive boards could win back the possessions Southern Miss gives away.

Tempo and the early market read

Texas State played its opener at 61.5 possessions per 40 minutes, 339th of 349. That slow pace produced a 67-55 win that stayed under the closing total. Both teams come in with 11 days of rest, so neither can lean on fatigue.

No spread or total has been posted. Brandon Weston, a Tennessee State transfer who had at one point been listed out with an undisclosed injury, scored nine in the opener. No current injury report has surfaced for either team.