Southeast Missouri State vs Middle Tennessee prediction: Middle Tennessee's rebuilt shooters get their first real Division I test
Both programs rebuilt their rosters, and Friday hands Middle Tennessee's new perimeter group its first Division I opponent after a blowout of Fisk.
- Middle Tennessee's guards fire threes early and often; SEMO must survive that volume without sending the Blue Raiders to the free throw line.
- Eli Rice and Marcus Whitlock Jr. against a SEMO defense that allowed very few three-point attempts last season.
- No spread or total is posted yet. SEMO covered as a 1.5-point underdog and went over a 156.5 total against Lipscomb.
Two rosters built from scratch
Nobody on either bench knows quite what they have yet, and that is what makes this one interesting. Middle Tennessee returns 24.7% of last season's minutes, and Southeast Missouri State returns 25.1%. Last season's team numbers say more about the coaches than the players who will take the floor Friday.
The two openers weren't equal tests. Middle Tennessee beat Fisk 117-73, a result that tells you little about how the Blue Raiders handle a tougher opponent. SEMO's win came against a Lipscomb team rated 203rd in adjusted net efficiency, and it was a real fight. The Redhawks also have more games ahead before this trip: they host Webster on Wednesday and visit South Carolina on Nov. 8.
The Blue Raiders shoot first
Nick McDevitt's teams live behind the arc. Last season 45.9% of Middle Tennessee's shots were threes, 50th-most in Division I. The new group kept the habit against Fisk at 46.1%.
The newcomers make that volume more dangerous. Eli Rice, a Penn State transfer, shot 39% from three last season. He went 5 of 10 from deep off the bench in the opener. Whitlock, one of the few returners, added four threes, and Quintero Barnett, a newcomer from Walsh, led everyone with 24 points.
Brad Korn, in his seventh season at SEMO, built a defense last season that pushed opponents off the line. Only 32.9% of opponents' shots were threes. That ranked 348th of 365 in attempts allowed, near the very bottom. Whether a roster with nine newcomers can still run shooters off the arc is the question most likely to decide this game.
The price of that defense
Chasing shooters off the line has a cost, and last season SEMO paid it at the stripe. Opponents earned free throws on 44.9% of their field goal attempts, a measure called free throw rate. That ranked 353rd of 365.
The Redhawks didn't get there much themselves in the opener. Their own free throw rate was 14.1%, 333rd in the country. Middle Tennessee made 77.3% of its free throws against Fisk, so a whistle-heavy night tilts toward the home team at Murphy Center.
What SEMO showed against Lipscomb
The Redhawks' opener offers a template for hanging around on the road. They trailed 42-40 at halftime, then outscored Lipscomb 46-37 after the break. Alonzo Clawson-Smith's three put SEMO ahead 57-56 with 12:20 left, and the Redhawks never gave the lead back. Five players reached double figures.
The shooting came in a small dose. SEMO made 55.0% of its threes, 4th nationally. But only 28.2% of its shots came from deep, so a cold night from the few attempts it takes leaves the offense leaning on twos.
Both teams opened fast. SEMO played at 76 possessions per 40 minutes and Middle Tennessee at 78, both quicker than either program played last season. More possessions give Middle Tennessee's three-point volume more chances to pull away.
Key players
- Quintero Barnett (Middle Tennessee): Led all scorers with 24 points on 9-of-15 shooting in his debut against Fisk.
- Eli Rice (Middle Tennessee): Hit 5 of 10 threes against Fisk after shooting 39% from deep at Penn State last season.
- Marcus Whitlock Jr. (Middle Tennessee): Scored 17 points with four threes and three blocks in the opener.
- Jahvin Carter (Middle Tennessee): Ran the offense with 16 points and 7 assists against Fisk after averaging 10.8 points last season.
- Drew Cooper (Southeast Missouri State): Led SEMO with 14 points and 6 rebounds in 20 minutes against Lipscomb.
- Fontaine Williams Jr. (Southeast Missouri State): Posted 13 points and 4 assists while making 2 of 3 threes in the opener.
- Alonzo Clawson-Smith (Southeast Missouri State): Scored 12 points with 2 blocks and hit the go-ahead three that put SEMO up for good.
- Marqueas Bell (Southeast Missouri State): The top returner averaged 9.1 points last season and scored 10 against Lipscomb.
Numbers that matter
| MTSU returning minutes | 24.7% | Middle Tennessee's roster is almost entirely new, so last season's team numbers are a weak guide. |
|---|---|---|
| MTSU 3-point attempt rate | 46.1% | Nearly half of the Blue Raiders' shots against Fisk were threes, matching last season's identity. |
| SEMO opponent 3PA rate, last season | 32.9% | Korn's defense last season kept opponents off the arc better than almost anyone in Division I. |
| SEMO opponent free throw rate, last season | 44.9% | Ranked 353rd of 365, the trade-off for that aggressive perimeter defense. |
| SEMO 3-point % | 55.0% | Hot shooting against Lipscomb, but on only 28.2% of SEMO's shots coming from deep. |
Southeast Missouri State vs Middle Tennessee: quick answers
When is Southeast Missouri State vs Middle Tennessee?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.