South Dakota vs Drake prediction: South Dakota's rebuilt Coyotes test Eric Henderson's second Drake team
Two programs that turned over most of their rotations meet in Des Moines, and the team whose new shooters settle in first likely controls the night.
- Expect an early-season feeling-out game between two remade rosters, with Drake's home floor and steadier core giving it the firmer footing.
- South Dakota transfer shooters Jahni Summers and Melo Sanchez against a Drake defense that ranked 322nd in opponent 3-point percentage last season.
- No spread or total is posted yet; last season's adjusted net ranks, Drake 185th and South Dakota 287th, frame the gap.
Two rosters starting over
Neither team that takes the floor at the Knapp Center on Friday, Nov. 13 looks much like the one that finished last season. South Dakota returns just 21.4% of last season's minutes, and its roster carries 12 newcomers, 10 of them transfers. Drake brings back 45.6%, with six returners and eight newcomers, four freshmen and four transfers.
That turnover makes last season's team numbers a weak guide for the Coyotes in particular. They lost Isaac Bruns to USC, Cameron Fens to North Carolina and Jordan Crawford to Missouri. Bruns alone scored 20.6 points a game.
There is a coaching thread, too. Eric Henderson, now in his second season at Drake, came over from Summit League rival South Dakota State, so he knows Eric Peterson's program well. Peterson is in his fifth year in Vermillion. The Coyotes were picked fifth in the Summit League preseason poll.
The three-point question
Drake built its offense around the arc last season. Its 3-point attempt rate (the share of shots taken from deep) was 45.7%, 56th-highest in the country. The Bulldogs return three of their top five long-range shooters, led by Eli Shetlar, who hit 39.5% on 195 attempts.
The worry is the other end. Drake's opponents shot 36.0% from three, which ranked 322nd, and fired them often. That plays straight into South Dakota's offseason shopping. Summers made 42.2% of his threes at Sacramento State, and Sanchez hit 42.8% at Central Connecticut. If those two find space, Drake's defense has to prove last season's weakness is fixed.
Who carries the Coyotes
South Dakota's 95-57 opener came against NAIA Mount Marty, which played it as an exhibition, so the box score says more about roles than quality. The Coyotes pulled away with a 20-6 run over the final eight minutes of the first half.
Vince Buzelis, a preseason all-Summit second-teamer, ran the show with 14 points, seven rebounds and six assists in 19 minutes. Summers led the team with 17. Josiah Dotzler, who missed all of last season with an injury, added 12 and three steals, though he needed nine shots to get there.
Drake's new pieces lean bigger. Jon Carroll averaged 11.3 points and 7.9 rebounds at Morehead State last season. Gabe Oldham shot 70.3% from the field at Denver. Drake must replace Jalen Quinn, who scored 19.7 points a game last season, and opens its own season on Nov. 4 against Central College.
Tempo and the whistle
Last season's South Dakota team played fast, at 70.5 possessions per 40 minutes (56th-most), and lived at the line with a free throw rate (free throws per field goal attempt) that ranked 6th. Drake played a more measured 67.8 possessions.
Drake's real edge was ball security. Its turnover rate of 15.0 per 100 possessions ranked 57th, though it rarely forced mistakes, ranking 303rd. How much of either team's old identity survives the roster churn is the open question Friday answers.
Key players
- Vince Buzelis (South Dakota): Posted 14 points, seven rebounds and six assists in the opener after averaging 7.1 points last season.
- Jahni Summers (South Dakota): Shot 42.2% from three at Sacramento State last season and scored 17 in his Coyote debut.
- Melo Sanchez (South Dakota): Made 59 threes at 42.8% for Central Connecticut last season.
- Josiah Dotzler (South Dakota): Returned from a season lost to injury with 12 points and three steals against Mount Marty.
- Eli Shetlar (Drake): Hit 39.5% on 195 three-point attempts last season.
- Jon Carroll (Drake): Averaged 11.3 points and 7.9 rebounds at Morehead State last season.
- Andrew Alia (Drake): Started 32 games last season and shot 38% from three.
- Gabe Oldham (Drake): Shot 70.3% from the field with 7.4 rebounds a game at Denver last season.
Numbers that matter
| South Dakota returning minutes | 21.4% | Almost the entire rotation is new, so last season's Coyote numbers carry little weight. |
|---|---|---|
| Drake returning minutes | 45.6% | The Bulldogs keep a bigger core, including three of their top five 3-point shooters. |
| Drake opponent 3-point % rank, last season | 322nd | Opponents hit 36.0% from deep, a soft spot South Dakota's transfer shooters can target. |
| Jahni Summers 3-point %, last season | 42.2% | One of two new Coyote guards who shot above 42% from three elsewhere last season. |
| Drake adjusted net rank, last season | 185th | Ahead of South Dakota's 287th, the clearest available measure of the gap before either team plays a Division I game. |
South Dakota vs Drake: quick answers
When is South Dakota vs Drake?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.