SIU Edwardsville vs Duke prediction: Duke's rebuilt backcourt goes hunting for its jumper against SIUE

Duke's jumper is the question

Duke's first night out looked dominant on the scoreboard and awkward from the perimeter. The Blue Devils beat Army 84-50, but they shot 18.2% from three, which ranks 327th of 348 Division I teams after one game. Army strung together a 12-0 run before Cayden Boozer hit Duke's first three to end a long drought.

The most notable miss was John Blackwell, the Wisconsin transfer, who went 1 of 6 from the floor. That reads as a cold night rather than a verdict. He made 38.9% of 247 three-point attempts last season.

SIUE's identity last season was making nights like that common. The Cougars held opponents to 29.8% from three, 10th nationally, and their opponents' effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes 1.5 times) ranked 6th. The catch: only 35.3% of last season's minutes return, so that defense is a weak guide to this one.

A new Duke, by design

Duke went 35-3 last season and finished first nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). That team is largely gone. Cameron Boozer and Isaiah Evans left, and players on this roster logged 43.2% of last season's minutes.

The opener hinted at who carries the load now. Dame Sarr scored 16 points on 5-of-5 shooting in 21 minutes. Patrick Ngongba II scored Duke's first points of the season at the rim and finished with 10 points and 7 rebounds. Caleb Foster, who had dealt with a small ankle injury in preseason practice, played 20 minutes. Drew Scharnowski, who missed all three exhibitions, was cleared for the opener, though his opening-night line isn't in our data.

Size and second chances

The clearest edge is physical. Duke's rotation averages 79.6 inches, weighted by minutes, against 76.9 for SIUE. Last season's Duke team grabbed 38.4% of its own misses, 6th in the country, and SIUE ranked 207th in defensive rebound rate.

The Cougars also lost their rim protector. Arnas Sakenis blocked 2.2 shots per game last season and is gone. Duke, meanwhile, blocked 27.3% of Army's two-point tries, 8th nationally. If the threes keep missing, Duke has a reliable fallback: it made 67.6% of its twos against Army.

SIUE has to find points

The Cougars' problem last season was scoring. They finished 325th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 238th in turnover rate (turnovers per 100 possessions). Duke forced turnovers on 34.3% of Army's possessions, 6th in Division I so far.

SIUE opened with a 91-39 win over Eureka, a result that says little about how it handles this level. Northern Illinois transfer Gianni Cobb ran the offense with 4 assists. Brennan Miller added 13 points and 8 rebounds off the bench. The returner to watch is Darrion Baker, who made 45.3% of his threes last season. SIUE has a recent NCAA Tournament trip on its résumé, as a 16 seed in 2025, but this is a different roster walking into Cameron Indoor.