SIU-Edwardsville Cougars vs Lipscomb Bisons prediction: Lipscomb's cold shooting faces SIUE's untested 2-0 start
The Bisons have lost the shooters who powered last season's offense, and their home opener asks whether an SIUE team that hasn't played a Division I opponent can make them pay.
| Spread | Lipscomb -8 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 144.5 |
- Lipscomb's home opener hinges on whether its rebuilt backcourt finds a jumper. SIUE's 2-0 start came at home against Eureka and Concordia-Chicago.
- Lipscomb's ball handling against SIUE's active guards: the Bisons turn it over on 22.2% of possessions, 301st nationally.
- Lipscomb -8, total 144.25. The line has moved from Lipscomb -5.5 since our feed's first line. Last season's adjusted net ratings had Lipscomb 203rd and SIUE 253rd.
Where did the threes go
Lipscomb has gone 0-2 on the road, and Saturday is its first home game. The Bisons need more than a friendly crowd. Last season they built their offense on volume from deep, taking 48.2% of their shots from three, 26th-most in the country.
Most of those shooters are gone. Ross Candelino, a 42.6% three-point shooter, is at Fresno State. Ethan Duncan left for California Baptist. Center Grant Asman, last season's leading scorer at 14.1 points a game, is off the roster as well.
The replacements haven't found the range. Lipscomb is shooting 25.0% from three, 306th of 363, and went 3 of 18 in a 76-54 loss at Iowa. Its effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) sits at 43.9%. Returning point guard Mateo Esmeraldo, an efficient table-setter last season, has made 1 of 9 threes. SIUE held opponents to 29.8% from three last season, 10th nationally, though few of the players behind that number are back.
Discount the Cougars' gaudy start
SIUE's early profile looks elite: the Cougars allow 69.9 points per 100 possessions, 18th in the country. Those numbers come from a 91-39 win over Eureka and an 85-61 win over Concordia-Chicago, both at home. Concordia-Chicago even trailed by just a point at halftime.
The better baseline is last season, with a caveat. SIUE finished with an adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) of -8, 253rd. Lipscomb finished 203rd. But the Cougars return only 35.3% of last season's minutes, so that rating describes a different team.
The new faces are driving the start. Jordan Pickett scored a career-high 19 against Concordia-Chicago, 17 of them after halftime. Freshman Brennan Miller is shooting 68.8% off the bench, and Northern Illinois transfer Gianni Cobb starts in the backcourt. This is also the first of four straight road games for SIUE, with Missouri on Monday and No. 2 Duke on Friday.
Turnovers are the pressure point
Lipscomb's biggest early problem is giving the ball away. The Bisons turn it over on 22.2% of their possessions, 301st nationally, and their assist rate ranks 352nd. That is a poor fit against SIUE's guards, who have forced turnovers on 31.5% of opponent possessions, seventh in the country, albeit against overmatched opponents.
Inside, Lipscomb has found something in freshman forward Devyn Martin, who averages 12.0 points and 9.0 rebounds. He'll see shot-blockers: SIUE's David Wilson is averaging 2.5 blocks. The Bisons rarely get second chances either, with an offensive rebound rate of 22.1%, 330th.
The line and the free throw line
Lipscomb is an 8-point favorite with a total of 144.25, and the line has moved from Lipscomb -5.5 since our feed first recorded the game. The Bisons are 1-1 against the spread. They lost 86-79 at Southeast Missouri State as 1.5-point favorites, then covered as 23.25-point underdogs at Iowa.
If it stays close, the foul line favors the home team. Lipscomb is shooting 84.8% on free throws, 17th nationally, led by Oregon transfer Takai Simpkins at 89.5%. SIUE shot 67.5% last season, 335th. History leans the same way: SIUE has never beaten Lipscomb in four meetings, the last in 2011 in Cancun. Lipscomb hosts Belmont on Tuesday.
SIU-Edwardsville Cougars vs Lipscomb Bisons line movement and odds
| Book | Cougars ML | Bisons ML | Cougars spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +270 | -375 | +8.5 (-115) | o143.5 (-118) |
| BetRivers | +310 | -435 | +7.5 (+106) | o146.5 (-105) |
| DraftKings | +280 | -355 | +8.5 (-108) | o143.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | +280 | -360 | +8.5 (-110) | o144.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +290 | -375 | +8.5 (-115) | o144 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +275 | -350 | +7.5 (-102) | o143.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +300 | -425 | +7.5 (+105) | o146.5 (-105) |
Where the money is on SIU-Edwardsville Cougars vs Lipscomb Bisons
On the Kalshi moneyline: SIU-Edwardsville Cougars: 70% of bets, 31% of the money; Lipscomb Bisons: 30% of bets, 69% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Lipscomb Bisons -8.5: 30% of bets, 35% of the money; SIU-Edwardsville Cougars +8.5: 70% of bets, 65% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 144.5: 44% of bets, 11% of the money; Under 144.5: 56% of bets, 89% of the money.
SIU-Edwardsville Cougars vs Lipscomb Bisons stats (this season)
| Stat | SIU-Edwardsville Cougars | Lipscomb Bisons |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 99.2 (325th of 365) | 106.4 (218th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 107.1 (130th of 365) | 109.0 (168th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -8.0 (253rd of 365) | -2.6 (203rd of 365) |
| Pace | 71.5 (173rd of 364) | 72.3 (150th of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 58.1% (88th of 363) | 43.9% (301st of 363) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 40.0% (65th of 363) | 54.2% (276th of 363) |
| Turnover rate | 14.0% (74th of 363) | 22.2% (301st of 363) |
| Offensive rebound % | 38.8% (105th of 363) | 22.1% (330th of 363) |
| 3-point % | 33.3% (168th of 363) | 25.0% (306th of 363) |
| Free throw rate | 29.2% (259th of 363) | 43.0% (107th of 363) |
Key players
- Takai Simpkins (Lipscomb): He leads the Bisons at 20.0 points a game on a team-high 30.6% usage rate.
- Devyn Martin (Lipscomb): He has opened his career with 12.0 points and 9.0 rebounds on 69.2% shooting.
- Mateo Esmeraldo (Lipscomb): He averaged 6.7 assists last season but has made just 1 of 9 threes so far.
- Jordan Pickett (SIU Edwardsville): He is averaging 14.5 points and has made 5 of 9 threes after shooting 31.1% from deep last season.
- Brennan Miller (SIU Edwardsville): He averages 12.5 points and 7.5 rebounds while shooting 68.8% from the floor.
- Gianni Cobb (SIU Edwardsville): He averaged 9.8 points and 3.9 assists at Northern Illinois last season.
Numbers that matter
| Lipscomb 3-point % | 25.0% | Ranks 306th, a sharp fall for a team that lived on the three last season. |
|---|---|---|
| Lipscomb turnover rate | 22.2% | Ranks 301st, against an SIUE defense forcing turnovers at the seventh-highest rate. |
| SIUE returning minutes | 35.3% | Little of last season's 253rd-ranked team remains, so last season's ratings are a weak guide. |
| Lipscomb free throw % | 84.8% | Ranks 17th, an edge in a close finish against a poor SIUE free-throw team. |
| Spread | -5.5 | Lipscomb's number hasn't moved since our feed first saw the game. |
SIU-Edwardsville Cougars vs Lipscomb Bisons: quick answers
Who is favored in SIU-Edwardsville Cougars vs Lipscomb Bisons?
Lipscomb is favored by 8 points (Lipscomb -8).
What is the over/under for SIU-Edwardsville Cougars vs Lipscomb Bisons?
The total is 144.5 points.
When is SIU-Edwardsville Cougars vs Lipscomb Bisons?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.
Where is SIU-Edwardsville Cougars vs Lipscomb Bisons played?
Allen Arena, Nashville, TN.
Has the line moved for SIU-Edwardsville Cougars vs Lipscomb Bisons?
Yes: SIU-Edwardsville Cougars opened +5.5 and is now +8.5, and the total is still 143.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on SIU-Edwardsville Cougars vs Lipscomb Bisons?
On the Kalshi moneyline: SIU-Edwardsville Cougars: 70% of bets, 31% of the money; Lipscomb Bisons: 30% of bets, 69% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Lipscomb Bisons -8.5: 30% of bets, 35% of the money; SIU-Edwardsville Cougars +8.5: 70% of bets, 65% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 144.5: 44% of bets, 11% of the money; Under 144.5: 56% of bets, 89% of the money.