Sam Houston vs Illinois prediction: Rebuilt Sam Houston carries its 3-point gamble into No. 3 Illinois

A new Bearkats team shoots first

Sam Houston went 22-12 last season, but this is a different team. Players on the current roster logged just 23.6% of last season's minutes, so last season's numbers say little about this group. Chris Mudge, in his fourth year, rebuilt around returning guards Jacobe Coleman and Justin Begg plus transfers Zion Pipkin (Wichita State), Begg (George Mason) and forward Enel St. Bernard (Indiana State).

The opener at Alabama, which ranked 12th in last season's adjusted net efficiency, showed the identity. Half of the Bearkats' shots were threes (3-point attempt rate 50.8%, 54th nationally), and they made 45.5% of them. Inside the arc, they shot 31.2%, which ranked 340th. That is a team that has to live outside, and it walks into a building against a much bigger opponent: Illinois' minutes-weighted average height is 79.1 inches to Sam Houston's 76.3.

Illinois held opponents to 31.3% from three last season, 42nd nationally. If the Bearkats' shooting cools to anything near that, the two-point game won't bail them out.

Turnovers that may go unpunished

Sam Houston's worst number from the opener was its turnover rate (turnovers per 100 possessions): 28.7%, 332nd in the country. Against most top-five teams that would be fatal.

Illinois is an unusual top-five team. Last season it ranked 365th of 365 in forced turnover rate, and it ranked last in steal rate too. Brad Underwood's defense wins by keeping opponents off the line (first nationally in opponent free throw rate last season) and contesting shots, not by gambling. In the opener against Fairleigh Dickinson, Illinois forced turnovers at a 16.2% rate, 232nd. The Bearkats' giveaways are a real flaw, but this is a matchup that may let them get away with some of it.

Illinois' frontcourt, with questions

Illinois' edge should show up on the glass. Last season it rebounded 39.3% of its own misses, third nationally, and it grabbed 55.0% against FDU. Sam Houston ranked 197th in defensive rebound rate at Alabama.

The depth behind that edge is less certain. Jake Davis, a senior starter who shot 40.6% from three last season, left the FDU game with a left shoulder injury and did not return; Underwood called it concerning, and no diagnosis or timeline had been published as of Nov. 3. David Mirkovic, last season's 13.3-point, 8.0-rebound starter, had an appendectomy and missed the opener after July foot surgery. There had been no update on his status for this game as of Nov. 2.

The Illini still have plenty. Last season's final adjusted offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) ranked first nationally, and Andrej Stojakovic and Providence transfer Stefan Vaaks each scored 20 in the opener.

Pace and the market

Tempo is worth watching. Illinois played at 62.9 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 359th, one of the slowest teams in the country. It ran at 74.5 against FDU, while Sam Houston played at 80.5 in Tuscaloosa. Which version of Illinois shows up shapes the scoring environment.

No line had been posted for this game. Both teams covered their openers: Sam Houston lost 74-96 at Alabama but covered +27.25 with the game going under, and Illinois' 120-45 rout of FDU, which ranked 331st in last season's adjusted net efficiency, covered and went over. That FDU win says more about the opponent than the Illini.

What to watch - Whether Davis or Mirkovic is in uniform. - Sam Houston's early 3-point volume and accuracy. - Illinois' offensive rebounding against the smaller Bearkats.