Providence Friars vs Nebraska Cornhuskers prediction: Providence's new turnover-hunting defense tests Nebraska's Sweet 16 core

Two programs, two directions

Nebraska spent last March making program history with its first Sweet 16. Providence spent the offseason starting over: Bryan Hodgson replaced the fired Kim English, and only 12.6% of last season's minutes are back. The Hall of Fame Tip-Off at Mohegan Sun puts a team built on continuity against one built from the portal, and the early evidence says the new Friars play nothing like the old ones.

Hodgson's Friars hunt the ball

The striking number from Providence's 83-56 win over Maine isn't the margin. The Friars forced turnovers on 32.4% of Maine's possessions, fourth in Division I, and their steal rate ranked third. Miles Byrd, a San Diego State transfer, had seven steals. Gavin Hightower added five off the bench. Last season's Providence team ranked 357th in forced turnover rate, so this is a new identity, not a tweak.

The caveat is the opponent. Maine ranks 341st in adjusted net efficiency, and one game is a thin sample. Nebraska is a far sterner test. The Huskers turned it over on 11.1% of possessions against Le Moyne, 24th nationally, and last season's team ranked 42nd in turnover rate. Leonhardt, the Utah Valley transfer, dished seven assists in the opener after averaging 6.0 a game last season. If he handles the pressure, Providence's best weapon goes quiet.

Sandfort and the arc

Nebraska's offense runs through the three-point line. Last season the Huskers took 51.1% of their shots from deep, 10th most in the country. Sandfort, a unanimous preseason All-Big Ten pick, hit 41.6% of 310 attempts. He scored 20 in the opener despite going 1-for-6 from three, which says something about how many ways he can hurt a defense.

Providence let Maine fire away, allowing threes on 53.5% of its shots, 23rd most. Inside, the Friars were stingy: Maine made just 35.0% of its twos, and Providence blocked shots at the 24th-best rate. That profile invites exactly the shots Nebraska wants. Nebraska is also the bigger team, averaging 79.3 inches weighted by minutes against Providence's 77.4.

The price of pressure

Gambling for steals has a cost. Maine's free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) came in at 65.1% against Providence, 352nd nationally. Providence then made only 57.9% of its own free throws, 316th. Nebraska made 78.6% in its opener and, last season, ranked ninth at keeping opponents off the line. In a game priced this close, that gap at the stripe could settle it late.

Who's on the floor

Sam Orme remains the Nebraska question. The Belmont transfer has been out with a hamstring injury and missed the opener; as of Nov. 6, Hoiberg called him a game-time decision, saying he practiced hard but was limited after reaching a planned workload. Orme averaged 12.7 points and shot 39.7% from three at Belmont last season. Cale Jacobsen has filled his spot and scored 16 against Le Moyne.

Providence is thinner than planned. Dink Pate left in October to return to the G League. Joseph Pinion was ineligible after a judge denied his restraining order in late October, and Derek Simpson's eligibility was still unresolved as of Nov. 2. Freshmen and newcomers are carrying minutes: UNLV transfer Jacob Bannarbie went 7-of-7 for 14 points and 10 rebounds off the bench.

Where the line has moved

Where the line has moved Nebraska first appeared in our feed as a 4.5-point favorite and now sits at 2.5, with the total climbing from 155 to 158.5. Last season's adjusted ratings still favor the Huskers clearly, 13th in net efficiency to Providence's 72nd, but that comparison means little for a Friars roster that is almost entirely new. Nebraska's preseason was shaky, with exhibition losses to Saint Louis and BYU, while Providence beat Pittsburgh and Georgia Tech in its tune-ups. The Huskers do carry a streak of 23 straight nonconference regular-season wins into Saturday.