Pennsylvania vs Illinois prediction: Mirkovic's foot and a rebuilt backcourt shadow Illinois' early test with Penn

The Mirkovic question

Illinois enters 2026-27 on the back of its first Final Four in more than two decades, a run that ended against UConn. It is No. 1 in the Big Ten media poll and No. 3 in ESPN's preseason top 25. The Nov. 5 visit from Penn is the second game of the season, three days after the Nov. 2 opener against Fairleigh Dickinson.

The question hanging over the date is David Mirkovic. The preseason All-American forward had foot surgery after an injury in early August, and as of Oct. 10 Illinois had given no public return timeline. He sat out the Oct. 17 exhibition at Cincinnati while he ramps up, a call Brad Underwood confirmed. Last season Mirkovic averaged 13.3 points and 8.0 rebounds, so his absence would cost Illinois both scoring and its best rebounder. If he is out, Zvonimir Ivisic is an option to start.

Jake Davis is the other name to track. He hurt an ankle in practice, and before the exhibition Underwood said he "wouldn't expect to see him." Davis made 40.6% of his threes last season, the sharpest shooter among the returners.

A new backcourt takes over

Illinois brings back 57.3% of last season's minutes, so last season's team numbers are only a partial guide. The biggest hole is Keaton Wagler, who led the team at 17.9 points per game. Kylan Boswell is gone too.

Providence transfer Stefan Vaaks steps into that space. He scored 15.8 points per game for the Friars and made 91 threes, and he projects to start next to freshman Quentin Coleman, a top-25 recruit. Andrej Stojakovic gives the wings a scorer who gets to the rim more than he shoots from deep, and Tomislav Ivisic is a center who spaces the floor. That is plenty of talent, but a guard pairing that has never played a game together will run the offense in week one.

Penn's jumper against a wall

Penn went 18-12 last season with a lopsided shot profile. The Quakers made 38.4% of their threes, 12th in the country, but only 47.2% of their twos, 344th of 365. They didn't lean on the outside shot as much as that accuracy suggested, taking threes on 35.0% of their attempts.

Illinois took both options away last season. Opponents shot 31.3% from three against the Illini, and Illinois blocked 12.7% of opponents' two-point tries, 33rd nationally. If Penn's shooters don't get clean looks, its weakness inside becomes the whole story. Illinois also has the size edge, with a minutes-weighted average height of 81.1 inches against Penn's 77.9.

Second chances, slow pace

The cleanest mismatch is on the offensive glass. Illinois rebounded 39.3% of its own misses last season, third in the country, while Penn's defensive rebounding ranked 235th. That rebounding edge helped Illinois finish with the No. 1 adjusted offense in the country (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). How much of it survives depends partly on Mirkovic's status.

Illinois also dictates tempo. Its 62.9 possessions per 40 minutes ranked 359th, far slower than Penn's 69.2. Fewer possessions shrink the number of chances an underdog gets to string together hot shooting.

One thing Penn won't face is pressure. Illinois forced turnovers on just 12.1% of possessions, last in Division I, but it sent opponents to the line less than any team in the country. Penn, which turned it over on 15.4% of possessions (84th), should get its shots up. Whether they fall is the question.