Omaha Mavericks vs Utah State Aggies prediction: One night after BYU, Omaha faces a rested Utah State
The Mavericks lost 108-67 in Provo on Friday and now face a five-days-rested Aggies team that scores inside and wins the offensive glass, even without its 6-foot-11 center.
| Spread | Utah State -29.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 153.5 |
- Utah State should control the paint and the offensive glass against an Omaha team that gave up 108 points to BYU on Friday night.
- Utah State's two-point scoring should thrive against an Omaha defense allowing 59.2% inside the arc, 304th nationally.
- Utah State is -29.5, up from -25 when our feed first saw it. Omaha has allowed 86.5 points per game.
A short turnaround from Provo
Omaha's weekend started about as badly as a road trip can. BYU, 24th nationally in adjusted net efficiency, led 56-30 at halftime Friday and won 108-67. The Mavericks then had to move on to Logan for a Saturday tip at 4:00 PM ET.
Utah State has been off since Monday. Its opener was a 94-58 win over Idaho State, part of a five-game homestand to start the Aggies' first Pac-12 season. Season tickets in the Spectrum sold out in September. A rested home favorite against a team on the second day of a back-to-back is the shape of this game before anyone checks a stat.
Living inside the arc
Utah State's opener showed a team that wants the ball near the rim. The Aggies made 68.9% of their twos, 17th in Division I. Their 3-point attempt rate, the share of shots taken from deep, ranked 351st, close to the fewest in the country.
That is a bad draw for Omaha. The Mavericks have let opponents make 59.2% of their twos, 304th, and their block rate ranks 298th. Nothing about their interior defense suggests they can force the Aggies outside.
The catch is size. Connor Turnbull, the 6-foot-11 center, is out with a right-foot injury and was seen on crutches and in a boot, with a two-to-three-week timeline. Bron Roberts (ACL recovery), Collin Mulholland and freshman Jax Allen are also listed out. Those designations are unofficial, since Utah State won't issue formal availability reports until Pac-12 play. Will Hornseth, who like his new coach arrived from Northern Iowa, carried the frontcourt in the opener.
Extra possessions for the Aggies
Offensive rebound rate is the share of a team's own misses it gets back. Utah State recovered 51.7% of its misses against Idaho State, 10th in the country. Omaha's offense gets back just 24.7%, 306th.
Turnovers lean the same way. Utah State was careless in its opener, giving it away on 19.2% of possessions. But Omaha forces turnovers on only 10.8% of opponent trips, 354th of 363. A tired team that doesn't take the ball away and doesn't win the glass has few ways to earn extra shots.
Two rosters starting over
Both programs rebuilt. Omaha returns 19.8% of last season's minutes, so last season's team numbers are a weak guide. Utah State returns 25.5%, but that group includes Mason Falslev, the reigning Mountain West Player of the Year. Ben Jacobson takes over after two decades at Northern Iowa.
Last season's final adjusted ratings had the Aggies 26th in net efficiency and Omaha 257th. Nothing in the first week has narrowed that gap.
Chris Crutchfield's Mavericks, picked fourth in the Summit League, lean on new guards. Deke Thompson, a Texas State transfer, uses 31.9% of Omaha's possessions when he's on the floor. Cahmai Crosby has been the efficient one, making 5 of 10 threes. Omaha has made 56.8% of its free throws, 327th, which won't help a team trying to stay within the number.
What the market says
Utah State was -25 when our feed first saw this game and has moved to -29.5, with the movement toward the home side. The total moved further, from 148.5 to 154.0.
Omaha's defense explains the climb. The Mavericks have allowed 86.5 points per game, 314th, and the BYU game went over a 161.5 total. The question for both numbers is whether a deep Utah State bench, which scored 33 points in the Santa Clara exhibition, keeps scoring after the starters sit.
Omaha Mavericks vs Utah State Aggies line movement and odds
| Book | Mavericks ML | Aggies ML | Mavericks spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +3300 | -10000 | +29.5 (-105) | o153.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +29.5 (-114) | o153.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | +3500 | -20000 | +29.5 (-112) | o154.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +29.5 (-110) | o154.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +5000 | -20000 | +29.5 (-110) | o154 (-110) |
| FanDuel | — | — | +29.5 (-110) | o153.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +29.5 (-110) | o153.5 (-120) |
| Caesars | — | — | +29.5 (-110) | o153.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Omaha Mavericks vs Utah State Aggies
On the Kalshi moneyline: Omaha Mavericks: 83% of bets, 36% of the money; Utah State Aggies: 17% of bets, 65% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Utah State Aggies -30.5: 73% of bets, 60% of the money; Omaha Mavericks +30.5: 27% of bets, 40% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 154.5: 55% of bets, 51% of the money; Under 154.5: 46% of bets, 49% of the money.
Omaha Mavericks vs Utah State Aggies stats (this season)
| Stat | Omaha Mavericks | Utah State Aggies |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 106.0 (220th of 365) | 124.3 (19th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 114.2 (273rd of 365) | 100.6 (41st of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -8.3 (257th of 365) | 23.6 (26th of 365) |
| Pace | 69.5 (236th of 364) | 72.5 (138th of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 51.8% (195th of 363) | 62.1% (44th of 363) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 57.9% (321st of 363) | 37.7% (45th of 363) |
| Turnover rate | 19.4% (244th of 363) | 19.2% (240th of 363) |
| Offensive rebound % | 24.7% (307th of 363) | 51.7% (10th of 363) |
| 3-point % | 35.4% (130th of 363) | 29.4% (247th of 363) |
| Free throw rate | 39.6% (138th of 363) | 35.5% (180th of 363) |
Key players
- Mason Falslev (Utah State): Averaged 16.0 points and shot 39% from three last season, though he went 0 of 1 from deep in the opener.
- Kingston Tosi (Utah State): Scored 26 points in 27 minutes against Idaho State on 68.8% shooting.
- Will Hornseth (Utah State): Had 16 points on 66.7% shooting in the opener, all inside the arc, with Turnbull now out.
- Dallin Hall (Utah State): Ran the offense with 7 assists in 34 minutes in the opener.
- Cahmai Crosby (Omaha): Leads Omaha at 16.0 points per game and has made 5 of 10 threes.
- Deke Thompson (Omaha): Averages 15.0 points with a team-high 31.9% usage rate.
- Grant Stubblefield (Omaha): The key returner averages 10.0 points and 5.5 rebounds through two games.
- Jonny Jordan Jr. (Omaha): Scoring 11.5 points per game off the bench and has made 3 of 6 threes.
Numbers that matter
| Omaha opponent 2-point % | 59.2% | Ranks 304th, a poor fit against a Utah State team that rarely shoots threes. |
|---|---|---|
| Utah State offensive rebound % | 51.7% | Ranked 10th after one game, against an Omaha offense that rebounds 24.7% of its misses. |
| Omaha forced turnover rate | 10.8% | Ranks 354th of 363, so Utah State's loose ball handling is unlikely to be punished. |
| Spread | -26.75 | Moved from -25 toward Utah State since our feed first recorded it. |
| Omaha returning minutes | 19.8% | A near-total rebuild, which makes last season's Omaha numbers a weak guide. |
Omaha Mavericks vs Utah State Aggies: quick answers
Who is favored in Omaha Mavericks vs Utah State Aggies?
Utah State is favored by 29.5 points (Utah State -29.5).
What is the over/under for Omaha Mavericks vs Utah State Aggies?
The total is 153.5 points.
When is Omaha Mavericks vs Utah State Aggies?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Where is Omaha Mavericks vs Utah State Aggies played?
Dee Glen Smith Spectrum, Logan, UT.
Has the line moved for Omaha Mavericks vs Utah State Aggies?
Yes: Omaha Mavericks opened +25.5 and is now +29.5, and the total moved from 147.5 to 153.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Omaha Mavericks vs Utah State Aggies?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Omaha Mavericks: 83% of bets, 36% of the money; Utah State Aggies: 17% of bets, 65% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Utah State Aggies -30.5: 73% of bets, 60% of the money; Omaha Mavericks +30.5: 27% of bets, 40% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 154.5: 55% of bets, 51% of the money; Under 154.5: 46% of bets, 49% of the money.