Old Dominion Monarchs vs Bucknell Bison prediction: Old Dominion's turnover-hungry rebuild tests Bucknell's three-point habit

Bucknell lives behind the arc

Bucknell's home opener comes with a clear identity, even if only one game sits behind it. At Maryland, 58.5% of the Bison's shots were threes, the eighth-highest rate in Division I. Aleksander Pachucki carried that plan, going 7 of 11 from deep for 23 points in a 96-67 loss.

Pachucki is one of two junior guards back as returning starters, along with Jayden Williams, and he shot 35.9% from three last season, so the opener wasn't pure fluke. Williams is the swing piece. He missed all four of his threes against the Terrapins, and he made 31% of them last season.

Old Dominion invites the shot. Its opponents have taken threes on 44.3% of their attempts while making only 27.7% of them. That trade has worked for the Monarchs through two games. Against a team that shoots this often, it becomes the variable that decides the margin.

The giveaway problem

Bucknell has to get a shot up first, and that is where this matchup tilts. The Bison turned the ball over on 25.0% of their possessions at Maryland (turnover rate: giveaways per 100 possessions), which ranks 335th of 363. Old Dominion forces turnovers at a 28.3% clip, 28th nationally, and its steal rate ranks 28th as well.

Thurmon, an Oakland transfer coming off the bench, averages 2.5 steals and 4.5 assists and drives that pressure. Every Bucknell turnover is one fewer three for a team built on volume.

The glass points the same way. Bucknell grabbed just 36.4% of Maryland's misses, last of 363 teams. Old Dominion rebounds 38.9% of its own misses, and Jared Turner averages 7.0 rebounds off the bench. If the Monarchs win both the turnover and rebounding battles, Bucknell's shooting has to be outstanding just to break even.

Two rosters starting over

Both teams rebuilt heavily, so last season's numbers say little. Old Dominion returns 29.0% of last season's minutes and Bucknell 34.7%. For what it's worth, last season's final adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) put the Monarchs 248th and the Bison 334th.

Mike Jones, 27-41 through two seasons in Norfolk, added 11 newcomers, seven of them transfers. The early scoring has come from returners. Zacch Wiggins averages 14.0 points and scored 25 against Western Michigan, and Scottie Hubbard has made 5 of 9 threes. Kylan Howze, a Louisiana Tech transfer, adds 6.5 points.

Old Dominion's weakness is its own shooting. It has made just 27.7% of its threes, 274th nationally. Bucknell's defense blocked shots at a rate that ranks 355th at Maryland, so the Monarchs may find room to score inside.

Griffin's new-look roster includes transfers Rocco Lamuno, who scored 12 at Maryland, and Luca Soroa Schaller. Patrick O'Brien is the lone senior. Neither team has reported an injury or eligibility issue.

Home opener, steady number

This is the first meeting since 2008, when Bucknell won 83-82 in double overtime at Sojka Pavilion. It is also a breather between road trips to Maryland and Virginia, the latter coming Nov. 10. Old Dominion plays its first road game on three days' rest, and Bucknell has had five.

Old Dominion is favored by 4.5, with a moneyline of -205, and the total sits at 144.5. Neither number has moved since the feed first recorded them. The Monarchs covered as 1.5-point underdogs against Western Michigan, and that game finished well under its 155.5 total. Bucknell covered a 31.5-point spread at Maryland while the game went over.

The total depends on Bucknell's threes. If Old Dominion's pressure turns possessions into giveaways, the Bison won't get enough shots up to push the score high. If Pachucki gets loose again, the game can move fast.