Northwestern State vs Mississippi State prediction: Josh Hubbard and a rebuilt Mississippi State face Northwestern State's crawl
The Bulldogs return only a fifth of last season's minutes, so this early Starkville date is really about whether Hubbard's new cast can fix a defense that broke down last season.
- Mississippi State should control this at home if its new guards share the load with Hubbard and its defense improves on last season's collapse.
- Hubbard against a Northwestern State defense that allowed 35.5% from three last season, 299th nationally.
- No spread or total is posted yet; last season's adjusted net ratings, 106th for Mississippi State and 283rd for Northwestern State, frame the gap.
Hubbard and a new supporting cast
Chris Jans took Mississippi State to the NCAA Tournament in each of his first three seasons, then watched the Bulldogs go 13-19 and miss the postseason in 2025-26. His answer for year four was a near-total rebuild. Players on this season's roster logged just 21.0% of last season's minutes, so last year's team numbers are a loose guide at best.
The constant is Josh Hubbard, a senior guard and preseason first-team All-SEC pick. He averaged 22.1 points last season with a 32.7% usage rate, meaning nearly a third of the Bulldogs' possessions ended with him. The question is who takes the rest. RJ Johnson arrives from Kennesaw State after hitting 42.3% from three, and Tajuan Simpkins comes from Seton Hall. Inside, ND Okafor shot 58.3% from the field at Washington State. The conference picked Mississippi State 15th in the SEC, so the league expects growing pains. Early November against a Southland team is where Jans can sort his rotation.
A pace fight in Starkville
Northwestern State played one of the slowest games in the country last season, averaging 63.1 possessions per 40 minutes, 357th of 365. Mississippi State ran at 69 possessions, 111th. Fewer possessions shrink the margin a better team can build, which is the Demons' best path to staying close.
The Demons also scored only 68.3 points per game last season and shot a 49.4% effective field goal rate (a measure where threes count 1.5 times), 298th nationally. Rick Cabrera, also in his fourth season, brought in 11 newcomers, including five four-year transfers, after a Southland Tournament first-round loss to Nicholls on Mar 8. How much of last season's slow style carries over with that much new blood is genuinely unknown.
The free throw line
Northwestern State's most dangerous habit last season was getting to the line. Its free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) was 40.3%, 52nd in Division I, and it made 74.2% of those tries. That is how a slow, poor-shooting team manufactures points.
Mississippi State's own line problems were glaring. The Bulldogs made 66.0% of their free throws last season, 356th of 365. Several newcomers bring the same weakness: Okafor shot 64.4% at the line and Johnson 63.4%. If this game stays tighter than expected, the stripe is where it could get uncomfortable.
Can the Bulldogs defend again
Mississippi State's defense was the reason for last season's slide. It allowed 117.6 points per 100 possessions, 349th nationally, and forced turnovers on just 13.3% of opponent possessions, 355th. Okafor's 1.4 blocks per game should help a Bulldogs team that ranked 86th in block rate last season.
Northwestern State gives the Bulldogs a chance to show progress. The Demons turned it over on 18.4% of possessions last season, 284th, and grabbed only 27.1% of their own misses, 304th. A defense that couldn't force mistakes last season gets an opponent prone to making them. If Mississippi State still can't generate turnovers here, that tells you something about the rebuild.
Where the money is on Northwestern State vs Mississippi State
On the Kalshi moneyline: Northwestern State: 50% of bets, 6% of the money; Mississippi State: 50% of bets, 94% of the money.
Key players
- Josh Hubbard (Mississippi State): Averaged 22.1 points last season and took 274 threes, making 34.7%.
- RJ Johnson (Mississippi State): Scored 14.4 points per game last season and shot 42.3% from three.
- ND Okafor (Mississippi State): Shot 58.3% from the field with 1.4 blocks per game last season, all without attempting a three.
- Tajuan Simpkins (Mississippi State): Made 37% of his threes last season while averaging 9.7 points off the bench.
Numbers that matter
| Mississippi State returning minutes | 21.0% | Last season's team numbers describe a roster that is mostly gone. |
|---|---|---|
| Northwestern State pace, last season | 357th | The Demons' slow tempo limits possessions and the margin a better team can build. |
| Northwestern State free throw rate, last season | 40.3% | Ranked 52nd nationally and the Demons' most reliable source of points. |
| Mississippi State free throw %, last season | 66.0% | Ranked 356th of 365, a weakness several transfers do not fix. |
| Mississippi State defensive efficiency, last season | 349th | The unit that sank last season and the biggest test for the rebuild. |
Northwestern State vs Mississippi State: quick answers
When is Northwestern State vs Mississippi State?
Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.
Where is the money on Northwestern State vs Mississippi State?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Northwestern State: 50% of bets, 6% of the money; Mississippi State: 50% of bets, 94% of the money.