Northern Iowa vs Michigan State prediction: Jeremy Fears Jr. and Michigan State test Northern Iowa's rebuilt roster
The Panthers kept almost nothing from last season's MVC title team, so this Breslin Center visit is the first real read on what Kyle Green has built.
- No. 6 Michigan State should control the glass and the tempo against a Northern Iowa roster still learning to play together under a first-year coach.
- Fears running the Spartans' offense against Northern Iowa's new backcourt of Greyson Uelmen, Tate McCubbin and Carson Vis.
- No line posted yet; Michigan State closed -30.25 against Quinnipiac and covered in a 96-59 opener.
A champion in name only
Northern Iowa arrives as last season's MVC champion and NCAA Tournament team, but almost none of that team made the trip. The roster returns 9.6% of last season's minutes and 7.1% of its points. Ben Jacobson left for Utah State after 20 seasons. Trey Campbell went to Utah, Leon Bond III to Iowa State and Will Hornseth to Utah State.
That matters because last season's Panthers were built on defense. They allowed 61.8 points per game, first in the country, and held opponents to 28.7% from three, third nationally. Those numbers describe a team that no longer exists, and they tell you little about this one. Kyle Green, hired from Iowa State's bench in April, made his debut in a 106-70 win over Division III Cornell College, where all 14 Panthers played and 13 scored. That game reveals depth and not much else.
Fears sets the terms
Michigan State's opener showed how the Spartans plan to win. Jeremy Fears Jr., the Big Ten Preseason Player of the Year, handed out 11 assists in 26 minutes against Quinnipiac. A 15-2 run built an early lead, and his layup before halftime made it 52-24. Six Spartans reached double figures, including Kaleb Glenn, the FAU transfer who scored 11 after missing last season with a knee injury.
Fears is the steadiest piece of a roster that kept 60.4% of its minutes. Last season he averaged 9.3 assists with an offensive rating of 131, points produced per 100 possessions he used. Northern Iowa's answer is a backcourt stitched together from four schools. Fears rolled both ankles in an October exhibition, but he played the opener without visible limits.
Size and second chances
The clearest edge for the home team is around the rim. Last season Michigan State grabbed 37.8% of its own misses, 12th nationally, and finished second in defensive rebound rate. Northern Iowa ranked 360th in offensive rebound rate, though that came from a roster that has since scattered.
The new Spartans look the part. Charlotte transfer Anton Bonke pulled down 13 rebounds in 20 minutes against Quinnipiac and blocked 1.5 shots per game last season. Michigan State's lineup averages 78.6 inches weighted by minutes, against 77.4 for Northern Iowa. The one wrinkle is junior center Jesse McCulloch, who missed the opener with a mild concussion suffered in practice; there has been no update on his status since Nov. 2.
Who scores for the Panthers
Green's offense runs through transfers. Greyson Uelmen averaged 17.1 points at North Dakota last season with a 29.3% usage rate, the share of possessions he finished while on the floor. Carson Vis came off the bench to score a career-high 18 in the opener. Isaiah Johnson-Arigu, who averaged 10.5 at St. Thomas, added 12 in 15 minutes.
None of those performances came against a Division I opponent, so Friday is the first honest test of whether this group can create clean looks against a defense that ranked 11th in adjusted net efficiency last season. Tate McCubbin, a 31-game starter at Austin Peay, is the most experienced shooter of the group.
The schedule around it
Michigan State plays this game between Duke on Nov. 10 and Tennessee on Nov. 17, a stretch that puts a mid-major visit in a spot where focus can drift. It is also Military Appreciation Night at the Breslin Center. The programs have not met since the 2010 Sweet 16, when the Spartans won 59-52.
There is no spread or total yet. When one appears, the opener offers the only market reference: Michigan State was a 30.25-point favorite against Quinnipiac, covered, and the game went over a total of 152.5. Northern Iowa has no lined games this season.
Key players
- Jeremy Fears Jr. (Michigan State): Had 13 points and 11 assists on 5-of-8 shooting in the opener after averaging 9.3 assists last season.
- Anton Bonke (Michigan State): The Charlotte transfer grabbed 13 rebounds in 20 minutes against Quinnipiac.
- Coen Carr (Michigan State): Posted 12 points and 8 rebounds in the opener, matching his 12.0 scoring average from last season.
- Jordan Scott (Michigan State): Started the opener and produced 11 points, 6 rebounds and 2 blocks.
- Greyson Uelmen (Northern Iowa): Averaged 17.1 points at North Dakota last season and scored 17 in his Panthers debut.
- Carson Vis (Northern Iowa): The Western Michigan transfer scored a career-high 18 points off the bench in the opener.
- Isaiah Johnson-Arigu (Northern Iowa): Averaged 10.5 points at St. Thomas last season and scored 12 in 15 minutes in the opener.
Numbers that matter
| UNI returning minutes | 9.6% | Northern Iowa's roster played almost none of last season's minutes, so last year's elite defense is a weak guide. |
|---|---|---|
| MSU defensive rebound rank, last season | 2nd | Michigan State ended opponents' possessions as well as almost anyone last season. |
| Fears assists in opener | 11 | The preseason Big Ten Player of the Year picked up where his 9.3-assist season left off. |
| MSU opener closing spread | -30.25 | The only market reference so far; Michigan State covered it in a 96-59 win. |
Northern Iowa vs Michigan State: quick answers
When is Northern Iowa vs Michigan State?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.