Northern Iowa Panthers vs Furman Paladins prediction: Northern Iowa's rebuilt, faster Panthers test Furman's three-point barrage
Last season's slowest, stingiest version of UNI is gone, and Kyle Green's transfer-heavy team gets its first Division I test in a gym where Furman is picked to rule the SoCon.
| Spread | Furman -5.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 149.5 |
- Furman's high-volume shooting should set the terms at home against a UNI roster of transfers still learning a new coach's system.
- Furman's ball handlers, who have turned it over on just 9.9% of possessions, against a UNI backcourt that piled up steals in its opener.
- Furman moved from -3.5 to -4.5 and the total climbed to 149.5; UNI returns just 9.6% of last season's minutes.
A Panthers team starting over
Forget the Northern Iowa that won the Missouri Valley tournament last March. Ben Jacobson left for Utah State, Kyle Green took over in April, and the roster turned over almost completely. Players on this season's team logged only 9.6% of last season's minutes.
That matters because last season's numbers are seductive. UNI allowed 61.8 points per game, fewest in Division I, while playing at the 351st-fastest pace. Those habits walked out the door with the players and the coach who built them.
The only clue to the new identity came Tuesday in a 106-70 win over Cornell College, a non-Division I school. The Panthers played at 90 possessions per 40 minutes, the fastest pace in the country so far. One game against an overmatched opponent proves little, but it hints that Green wants to run where Jacobson walked.
Furman lets it fly
Bob Richey's Paladins enter as the coaches' pick to win the Southern Conference and the reigning SoCon tournament champion. They also lost Alex Wilkins to Kentucky, yet the offense hasn't missed a beat in two wins.
Furman takes 51.9% of its shots from three, 30th-highest nationally, and makes 39.1% of them. Tom House has been the trigger man, and Charles Johnston has hit 6 of 9 from deep after shooting 28.7% from three last season. That last number is the one to watch: if Johnston's early stroke is real, Furman's spacing gets much harder to guard.
The Paladins' one game against Division I competition was tighter than the scoreboard against Bob Jones suggests. They beat Bethune-Cookman 79-70 on a neutral floor.
The turnover battle
UNI's new backcourt was a pickpocket's convention against Cornell College. The Panthers forced turnovers on 32.2% of possessions, fifth in the country, with Greyson Uelmen and Levi Valdo combining for seven steals. Turnover rate here means giveaways per 100 possessions.
Furman is built to blunt that. The Paladins have coughed it up on 9.9% of possessions, 13th nationally, a sharp break from a 2025-26 team that ranked 249th in ball security. Luka Toews and Cameron Elwer are each handing out 5.5 assists a game.
If UNI can't speed Furman into mistakes, its tempo plan turns into a shooting contest on Furman's floor. The Paladins do offer one opening: they rarely block shots, so UNI's guards can attack the rim.
Where the market sits
Furman opened at -3.5 in our feed and has moved to -4.5, with the total rising from 147.0 to 149.5. The total's climb tracks the UNI tempo story; the spread move suggests the market trusts the more settled roster at home.
UNI won last season's meeting 70-54 at the McLeod Center, but almost none of the Panthers who played in that game are left. Furman covered as a 4.5-point favorite against Bethune-Cookman, and that game stayed under. A Nov. 5 injury report listed no Furman injuries; nothing has surfaced on UNI's availability. Tip is 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Northern Iowa Panthers vs Furman Paladins line movement and odds
| Book | Panthers ML | Paladins ML | Panthers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +170 | -210 | +5.5 (-115) | o149.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +190 | -245 | +5.5 (-115) | o149.5 (-114) |
| DraftKings | +170 | -205 | +5.5 (-115) | o149.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | +175 | -210 | +5.5 (-115) | o149.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +175 | -215 | +5.5 (-115) | o150 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +176 | -215 | +4.5 (-102) | o149.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +190 | -240 | +5.5 (-115) | o149.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +170 | -205 | +5 (-110) | o149.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Northern Iowa Panthers vs Furman Paladins
On the Kalshi moneyline: Northern Iowa Panthers: 40% of bets, 48% of the money; Furman Paladins: 60% of bets, 52% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Furman Paladins -3.5: 83% of bets, 97% of the money; Northern Iowa Panthers +3.5: 18% of bets, 3% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 149.5: 50% of bets, 97% of the money; Under 149.5: 50% of bets, 4% of the money.
Northern Iowa Panthers vs Furman Paladins stats (this season)
| Stat | Northern Iowa Panthers | Furman Paladins |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 109.7 (162nd of 365) | 107.8 (191st of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 97.5 (23rd of 365) | 109.0 (168th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | 12.2 (71st of 365) | -1.2 (180th of 365) |
| Pace | 90.0 (1st of 364) | 70.5 (210th of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 52.7% (181st of 363) | 60.5% (54th of 363) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 44.4% (125th of 363) | 40.3% (72nd of 363) |
| Turnover rate | 11.1% (24th of 363) | 9.9% (13th of 363) |
| Offensive rebound % | 34.1% (170th of 363) | 40.3% (82nd of 363) |
| 3-point % | 26.7% (287th of 363) | 39.1% (73rd of 363) |
| Free throw rate | 55.4% (25th of 363) | 38.3% (151st of 363) |
Key players
- Tom House (Furman): House is averaging 19.5 points and has made 5 of 9 threes through two games.
- Charles Johnston (Furman): Johnston is pulling down 9.0 rebounds a game, matching his average from last season.
- Marcus Kell (Furman): The preseason all-SoCon pick averaged 13.7 points at Western Carolina last season and is scoring 12.5 for Furman.
- Luka Toews (Furman): Toews is averaging 5.5 assists, steering an offense that rarely turns it over.
- Greyson Uelmen (Northern Iowa): Uelmen averaged 17.1 points on a 29.3% usage rate at North Dakota last season.
- Carson Vis (Northern Iowa): Vis led UNI with 18 points off the bench in the opener.
- Isaiah Johnson-Arigu (Northern Iowa): Johnson-Arigu scored 12 points in 15 minutes against Cornell College after averaging 10.5 last season.
- Tate McCubbin (Northern Iowa): McCubbin made 64 threes at Austin Peay last season.
Numbers that matter
| UNI returning minutes | 9.6% | With a new coach and almost no holdovers, last season's elite UNI defense is a weak guide. |
|---|---|---|
| Furman 3-point attempt rate | 51.9% | Furman takes more than half its shots from deep, 30th-highest in Division I. |
| Furman turnover rate | 9.9% | Ball security ranks 13th nationally, the counter to UNI's steal-heavy start. |
| Spread | -4.5 | Furman has moved a point from -3.5 since our feed first saw the game. |
| Total | 149.5 | Up from 147.0, in line with UNI's faster look under Kyle Green. |
Northern Iowa Panthers vs Furman Paladins: quick answers
Who is favored in Northern Iowa Panthers vs Furman Paladins?
Furman is favored by 5.5 points (Furman -5.5).
What is the over/under for Northern Iowa Panthers vs Furman Paladins?
The total is 149.5 points.
When is Northern Iowa Panthers vs Furman Paladins?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.
Where is Northern Iowa Panthers vs Furman Paladins played?
Timmons Arena, Greenville, SC.
Has the line moved for Northern Iowa Panthers vs Furman Paladins?
Yes: Northern Iowa Panthers opened +3.5 and is now +5.5, and the total moved from 147.5 to 149.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Northern Iowa Panthers vs Furman Paladins?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Northern Iowa Panthers: 40% of bets, 48% of the money; Furman Paladins: 60% of bets, 52% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Furman Paladins -3.5: 83% of bets, 97% of the money; Northern Iowa Panthers +3.5: 18% of bets, 3% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 149.5: 50% of bets, 97% of the money; Under 149.5: 50% of bets, 4% of the money.