Northern Illinois vs Tulsa prediction: Tulsa opens its post-NIT-finals rebuild against a remade Northern Illinois

Tulsa starts over after 30 wins

Tulsa went 30-8 last season and reached the NIT finals, then lost most of the offense that got it there. The three biggest departures each averaged at least 14 points: David Green, Tylen Riley, who is now at Cincinnati, and Miles Barnstable. Barnstable was the most efficient of them, an offensive rating of 136.7 on 40.6% shooting from three.

Players on this season's roster account for 58.9% of last season's minutes but only 47.6% of its points. That makes last season's team numbers a shakier guide for Eric Konkol's group than the 30-8 record suggests. The returners named in Tulsa's June roster announcement include Myles Rigsby, a reserve forward who made 88.6% of his free throws. Eight transfers and a freshman join the roster. The most interesting newcomer is Aleksa Dimitrijevic, a 7-0 center who redshirted last season at Creighton.

The shooting gap that built last season

Tulsa's identity was spacing and shot-making. Its offensive efficiency, points scored per 100 possessions, ranked 6th nationally. It shot 38.0% from three, 19th in the country, and took threes at the 40th-highest rate.

Northern Illinois's defense was poorly suited to stop that. Opponents posted a 54.9% effective field goal percentage against the Huskies, a measure that counts threes 1.5 times, which ranked 340th. They shot 35.2% from deep against NIU, 280th. The interior was no better: NIU's block rate ranked 354th, and opponents made 56.1% of their twos. If Dimitrijevic plays real minutes, a 7-footer against one of the country's least imposing front lines is the obvious mismatch. Tulsa also carries the size edge overall, with a minutes-weighted average height of 78.6 inches to NIU's 76.7.

Can the Huskies hold the ball

Northern Illinois's worst habit last season was giving possessions away. Its turnover rate of 21.4% ranked 357th of 365. A team that already shoots poorly can't afford empty trips.

This is where the matchup softens for the visitors. Tulsa did not pressure the ball last season: its forced turnover rate ranked 266th. A Konkol defense that sits back gives a new NIU backcourt a chance to settle into its offense. Whether it finds anything good once it gets there is another question. The Huskies made 31.2% of their threes despite taking them at the 68th-highest rate.

New coach, new league

Northern Illinois is a different program from the one that went 9-21. Rashon Burno is gone, and Matt Majkrzak arrived in March after seven seasons as head coach at Northern Michigan. The Huskies also left the Mid-American Conference after 29 seasons for the Horizon League, whose slate they released Sept. 10.

Majkrzak brought guard Cal Klesmit with him from Northern Michigan and added transfers Uzziah Buntyn from South Dakota and Brayden Gross from Walsh. Quentin Jones (Saint Louis) and James Dent Jr. (Middle Tennessee) left. NIU's projected starters haven't been reported, so the Huskies arrive at the Reynolds Center as close to an unknown as a Division I team gets.

One carryover is worth watching if the game turns physical. Northern Illinois got to the line often last season, ranking 91st in free throw rate, but made just 66.4% of its attempts, 352nd nationally. Tulsa shot 78.1%, 14th.