Northern Illinois Huskies vs Dayton Flyers prediction: Northern Illinois keeps losing first halves, and Dayton starts fast
A rebuilt Huskies team that shoots well but can't get stops runs into a Dayton team that crashed the glass and led by 24 at halftime of its opener.
| Spread | Dayton -19.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 148 |
- Dayton's size and second chances should build an early cushion; Northern Illinois' threes decide whether the margin holds or stretches.
- Dayton's offensive rebounders against a Northern Illinois defense that ranks 246th in defensive rebound rate.
- Dayton is favored by 19.5; Northern Illinois allows 49.5 first-half points per game, 350th nationally.
The first 20 minutes
Matt Majkrzak's first Northern Illinois team is two games old, and both games turned on the same flaw: the Huskies can't keep opponents from scoring early. Dayton opened its season by beating NJIT 89-58, and the Flyers got there by putting the game away before halftime.
Northern Illinois allows 49.5 first-half points per game, 350th of 363 Division I teams. The worst of it came Thursday at Tulsa, where the Huskies trailed 56-29 at the break. Against Grambling in Rock Hill, S.C., they went to the locker room down 43-36 and lost by two as an 8.5-point favorite. Dayton went the other way in its opener, leading NJIT 47-23 at the half.
The full-game numbers are no kinder. Northern Illinois' opponents have posted a 65.0% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes 1.5 times), 354th in the country. Those shots are coming from everywhere, inside and out.
Second chances for the Flyers
Dayton rebounded 51.4% of its own misses against NJIT, 12th nationally. Northern Illinois has secured just 67.2% of its opponents' misses, 246th. For a defense already giving up good looks, extra possessions are the fastest way for this game to get out of hand.
This is a new look for Anthony Grant's team. Last season the Flyers ranked 313th in offensive rebound rate. The rebuilt frontcourt changed that in one night: freshman Aiden Derkack and Amaël L'Etang, a preseason first-team All-Atlantic 10 pick, each finished the opener with 11 rebounds alongside 20-plus points.
The Huskies' way to hang around
Northern Illinois' offense has been far better than its record. The Huskies take 51.7% of their shots from three, 34th-most in the country, and make 41.7% of them. They also protect the ball, with a 10.3% turnover rate (turnovers per 100 possessions) that ranks 18th.
Max Weisbrod, a fifth-year guard from Northern Iowa, runs it, averaging 8.0 assists. David Douglas Jr., a Fresno State transfer, leads the team at 16.5 points per game. If those two keep hitting from deep, Northern Illinois can trade baskets even when it can't get stops.
Dayton's first look at the three-point line was extreme. NJIT made 12.0% of its attempts, the third-lowest opponent mark in Division I, though that came against a team that finished last season near the bottom of the country.
Two rebuilt rosters
Northern Illinois brings back 0.0% of last season's minutes from a 9-21 team, under a coach making his first season as a Division I head coach. Last season's numbers say almost nothing about this group.
Dayton returns 24.5% of its minutes, mostly through L'Etang. Last season's final adjusted ratings (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) had the Flyers' defense 29th nationally, a baseline the new roster still has to earn.
Availability is worth watching on the Dayton side. Jalen Haynes did not dress for the opener after offseason knee surgery, though Grant said he had returned to practice. Jaiun Simon missed an exhibition with a concussion in October and said then he expected to be ready; there has been no newer update on him.
What the market says
Dayton was first seen at -19.5 in our feed and hasn't moved. The total has dipped from 148.0 to 146.5.
Northern Illinois is 0-2 against the spread, and both of its games went over. Dayton covered a 23.5-point number against NJIT. The schedule tilts toward the Flyers too: Dayton has had five days off, while the Huskies come in two days after their loss at Tulsa.
Northern Illinois Huskies vs Dayton Flyers line movement and odds
| Book | Huskies ML | Flyers ML | Huskies spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1300 | -3000 | — | o147.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +1400 | -10000 | +19.5 (-113) | o147.5 (-110) |
| DraftKings | +1600 | -4000 | +19.5 (-112) | o148.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | +2000 | -7500 | +19.5 (-110) | o148.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +1800 | -4000 | +19.5 (-110) | o147.5 (-115) |
| FanDuel | +1600 | -4500 | +19.5 (-110) | o147.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1400 | -5000 | +19.5 (-110) | o147.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Northern Illinois Huskies vs Dayton Flyers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Northern Illinois Huskies: 58% of bets, 4% of the money; Dayton Flyers: 42% of bets, 96% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Dayton Flyers -19.5: 85% of bets, 42% of the money; Northern Illinois Huskies +19.5: 16% of bets, 59% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 147.5: 85% of bets, 52% of the money; Under 147.5: 16% of bets, 48% of the money.
Northern Illinois Huskies vs Dayton Flyers stats (this season)
| Stat | Northern Illinois Huskies | Dayton Flyers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 96.9 (342nd of 365) | 111.3 (131st of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 115.2 (289th of 365) | 99.0 (29th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -18.3 (335th of 365) | 12.3 (69th of 365) |
| Pace | 67.8 (284th of 364) | 69.5 (236th of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 55.6% (132nd of 363) | 54.6% (159th of 363) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 65.0% (355th of 363) | 37.1% (36th of 363) |
| Turnover rate | 10.3% (18th of 363) | 17.4% (175th of 363) |
| Offensive rebound % | 21.5% (335th of 363) | 51.4% (12th of 363) |
| 3-point % | 41.7% (50th of 363) | 34.6% (150th of 363) |
| Free throw rate | 35.3% (183rd of 363) | 32.3% (216th of 363) |
Key players
- Max Weisbrod (Northern Illinois): The Northern Iowa transfer is averaging 8.0 assists and shooting 53.3% from three.
- David Douglas Jr. (Northern Illinois): The Fresno State transfer leads the Huskies at 16.5 points per game on a 24.8% usage rate.
- Trevor Polite (Northern Illinois): He scored a career-high 15 against Grambling on 5-of-6 shooting.
- Amaël L'Etang (Dayton): He had 20 points and 11 rebounds in the opener on a team-high 31.6% usage rate.
- Aiden Derkack (Dayton): He debuted with 21 points and 11 rebounds on 6-of-9 shooting.
- Tristian Ford (Dayton): He came off the bench for 13 points, hitting 3 of his 4 threes against NJIT.
Numbers that matter
| NIU first-half points allowed | 49.5 | Ranks 350th of 363, and Dayton led its opener 47-23 at halftime. |
|---|---|---|
| Dayton offensive rebound rate | 51.4% | Ranks 12th against a Northern Illinois defensive rebounding unit ranked 246th. |
| NIU 3-point attempt rate | 51.7% | 34th-most nationally, and the Huskies are making 41.7% of those attempts. |
| NIU turnover rate | 10.3% | Ranks 18th, so Northern Illinois isn't giving away possessions on top of its defensive problems. |
| Spread | -19.5 | Dayton's number hasn't moved since our feed first saw it, while the total slipped to 146.5. |
Northern Illinois Huskies vs Dayton Flyers: quick answers
Who is favored in Northern Illinois Huskies vs Dayton Flyers?
Dayton is favored by 19.5 points (Dayton -19.5).
What is the over/under for Northern Illinois Huskies vs Dayton Flyers?
The total is 148 points.
When is Northern Illinois Huskies vs Dayton Flyers?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Where is Northern Illinois Huskies vs Dayton Flyers played?
UD Arena, Dayton, OH.
Has the line moved for Northern Illinois Huskies vs Dayton Flyers?
No: Northern Illinois Huskies has stayed at +19.5, and the total is still 147.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Northern Illinois Huskies vs Dayton Flyers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Northern Illinois Huskies: 58% of bets, 4% of the money; Dayton Flyers: 42% of bets, 96% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Dayton Flyers -19.5: 85% of bets, 42% of the money; Northern Illinois Huskies +19.5: 16% of bets, 59% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 147.5: 85% of bets, 52% of the money; Under 147.5: 16% of bets, 48% of the money.