Northern Arizona vs Kentucky prediction: Momcilovic's jumper heads for Northern Arizona's soft perimeter at Rupp
Kentucky's rebuilt roster gets a home tune-up three days after Kansas, against a Lumberjacks defense that rarely contested threes last season.
- Kentucky's size and shooting should take control early; the open question is whether a Kansas hangover keeps the margin closer than the talent gap suggests.
- Milan Momcilovic against Northern Arizona's three-point defense, which ranked 361st of 365 last season in opponent 3-point percentage.
- No line posted yet. Kentucky failed to cover -33.25 against Manhattan, while Northern Arizona covered +20.75 at UNLV.
A shooter and an open floor
Northern Arizona has never played Kentucky, and it is only the second Big Sky team to visit Rupp Arena. The Lumberjacks bring a familiar problem with them. Last season opponents shot 38.2% from three against them, 361st of 365 in Division I.
That is the worst possible matchup for a defense facing Milan Momcilovic. The Iowa State transfer hit 48.4% of his threes there last season on 281 attempts, the profile of a forward who punishes any late closeout. He opened his Kentucky career with 24 points and six made threes against Manhattan. He dealt with a finger injury in October, was back in live action by late October and played in the opener.
Northern Arizona returns only 37.8% of last season's minutes, so that defensive number is a loose guide. The opener didn't argue against it: UNLV made 38.1% of its threes against the Lumberjacks.
Kentucky's new faces, and missing ones
Mark Pope's third Kentucky team barely resembles his second. Players on this roster account for just 21.4% of last season's minutes, and Malachi Moreno is the lone returning starter. That makes last season's ratings for Kentucky (a 23.2 adjusted net efficiency, 29th nationally, meaning points per 100 possessions better than opponents after adjusting for schedule) a rough sketch at best.
The transfers carry the load. Alex Wilkins averaged 17.8 points at Furman last season and set a program debut record with seven steals against Manhattan. Zoom Diallo scored 12 in his first game after averaging 15.7 at Washington. Moreno grabbed 10 rebounds in 20 minutes.
Depth is the soft spot. Kam Williams, coming off a second foot procedure, was called week-to-week on about Oct. 23 and was described as nearing a return around Oct. 31; there has been no update for this game. Trent Noah (hamstring) was week-to-week with no timeline as of about Oct. 23. Jerone Morton (knee) had no clear timeline at that point either, which pushes freshman point guard Mason Williams into backup minutes.
The possessions Northern Arizona gives away
The Lumberjacks shot well at UNLV, hitting 47.8% from three, and still lost by 12. The reason was the ball. Their turnover rate (turnovers per 100 possessions) was 26.9%, 323rd in Division I after one game.
Kentucky is built to cash in on that. The Wildcats rebounded half of their own misses against Manhattan, 23rd nationally, and Northern Arizona finished 288th in defensive rebound percentage last season. Kentucky's rotation is also markedly taller by minutes-weighted height. If the Lumberjacks give up second shots and live turnovers, their shooting won't matter.
Chris Komin is the reason they can stay close for a while. The returning starter scored 24 at UNLV on 4-of-7 from three, and Northern Arizona led 47-43 at halftime in Las Vegas. Lucas Toukam added 16 and Ryan Abelman, in his fifth season, chipped in 12.
The schedule and the market
This game lands three days after Kentucky plays Kansas in the Champions Classic. Whatever happens in that one, the Wildcats return home to a team picked 11th in the Big Sky, the sort of spot where effort and rotation choices can shape the final margin more than talent does.
No spread or total has been posted. The two openers offer the only market evidence. Kentucky won by 28 but failed to cover a closing number of -33.25, and its game went under 158.5 with a first half of 48-22 that left little need to push. Northern Arizona covered +20.75 against a UNLV team ranked 104th in adjusted net efficiency, and that game went over.
Tempo may keep the total in check. Kentucky played at 66 possessions per 40 minutes in its opener, 301st nationally, a slower pace than its 69.2 last season.
Key players
- Milan Momcilovic (Kentucky): Shot 48.4% from three on 281 attempts at Iowa State last season, then hit six threes in his Kentucky debut.
- Alex Wilkins (Kentucky): Averaged 17.8 points at Furman last season and set a program debut record with seven steals against Manhattan.
- Malachi Moreno (Kentucky): Pulled down 10 rebounds in 20 minutes in the opener after averaging 1.5 blocks last season.
- Zoom Diallo (Kentucky): Carried a 24% usage rate in the opener, scoring 12 points, after averaging 15.7 at Washington last season.
- Chris Komin (Northern Arizona): Scored 24 points at UNLV on 4-of-7 from three, with a usage rate of 29.5%.
- Ryan Abelman (Northern Arizona): Averaged 10.5 points last season and shot 89.4% at the line, then opened with 12 points on 3-of-6 from three.
- Lucas Toukam (Northern Arizona): Added 16 points on 58.3% shooting in 26 minutes at UNLV.
- Tamiel Green (Northern Arizona): Went perfect from the floor for 8 points and grabbed 6 rebounds off the bench at UNLV.
Numbers that matter
| NAU opponent 3P%, last season | 38.2% | Ranked 361st of 365, a poor fit against a 48.4% shooter like Momcilovic. |
|---|---|---|
| NAU turnover rate | 26.9% | Ranked 323rd after the UNLV opener, and Kentucky just forced 19.7% against Manhattan. |
| Kentucky offensive rebound % | 50.0% | Ranked 23rd after one game, against an NAU team that was 288th in defensive rebounding last season. |
| Kentucky returning minutes | 21.4% | Last season's Kentucky numbers say little about this transfer-built roster. |
| Kentucky closing spread vs. Manhattan | -33.25 | The Wildcats won by 28 and still fell short of the number. |
Northern Arizona vs Kentucky: quick answers
When is Northern Arizona vs Kentucky?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.