North Carolina Central vs Liberty prediction: Liberty's rebuilt Flames go looking for their lost jump shot
A program built on shooting went cold in its opener, and an NC Central roster with 14 new faces arrives with turnover problems of its own.
- Expect a grinding, low-possession game decided by whether Liberty's new guards find the range before NC Central's ball security cracks.
- Dillon Claussen's rim protection against an NC Central attack that made just 34.8% of its twos at Georgia.
- No line has been posted yet; NC Central covered as a 40-point underdog at Georgia, while Liberty failed to cover as an 8.25-point underdog.
Liberty's shooters start over
Last season Liberty was one of the best shooting teams in the country. Its effective field goal percentage, which counts threes 1.5 times, was 60.5%, third in Division I, and it made 39.3% of its threes. That team is gone. Conference USA Player of the Year Zach Cleveland, leading scorer Brett Decker Jr. (now at Baylor) and guards Kaden Metheny and Colin Porter all left, and players on this roster account for only 10.5% of last season's minutes. Ritchie McKay has called it a brand new team.
The opener against High Point looked like one. Liberty made 19.2% of its threes, 321st nationally, and lost 72-57. Freshman Eli Sancomb went 2-of-13 from the field, and freshman Eli Herbert was 1-of-7 from deep. The fix should come from the Troy transfers. Cooper Campbell hit 39.5% of his threes there last season and Cobi Campbell hit 40%. They combined for 0-of-3 from deep in the opener, with Cobi not among the leading minute-getters. If the twins shoot like they did at Troy, this game changes shape quickly.
Claussen owns the paint
The encouraging news for Liberty came at the other end. Portal addition Dillon Claussen blocked six shots against High Point, and the Flames' block rate (blocks per opponent two-point attempt) of 18.9% ranked 47th.
That is a problem for NC Central, which barely shoots threes. Its 3-point attempt rate of 24.6% ranked 339th, meaning the Eagles try to score inside, and at Georgia they made only 34.8% of their twos, 325th. Cristian Sanon kept them afloat by going 5-of-7 from deep, but a team built to attack the rim now faces the best shot-blocker it will see in a while.
Fourteen new Eagles
LeVelle Moton's roster turned over almost completely. NC Central brought in 14 new players, and the current roster played just 3.1% of last season's minutes. Last season's identity, a defense that forced turnovers at the 10th-highest rate in the country, belonged to players who are no longer there, so it says little about this group.
What the opener showed was a ball-security problem. The Eagles turned it over on 25.7% of their possessions, 313th nationally. Darius Kane handed out seven assists but also carried a 27.5% usage rate with a 73.9 offensive rating, and Isaiah Buckley used possessions at an even higher clip without much return. Liberty's Zander Carter had four steals against High Point, and the Flames could turn NC Central's giveaways into the easy points their half-court offense couldn't find.
Home floor and game shape
Liberty plays its first home game after opening on a neutral floor, and both teams get long breaks before tip: 12 days of rest for Liberty and 11 for NC Central. The Flames played slowly last season, 319th in pace, and their opener ran at 66.5 possessions per 40 minutes. NC Central played faster at Georgia, at 74.
The last meeting, in 2022, went to Liberty, 79-63, with the Flames winning by 16. Both openers went under their closing totals, and neither offense has yet shown it can score efficiently. Last season's adjusted ratings put Liberty 109th and NC Central 346th in net efficiency, but with this much turnover those are a weak guide.
One availability question hangs over Liberty. Junior college transfer Sean Register Jr. is a possible availability question, though his status is not confirmed.
What to watch
- Campbell twins from deep: Liberty's offense needs threes to look like a Liberty offense.
- NC Central's turnovers: another night like the opener hands Liberty transition chances.
- Claussen against drives: the Eagles' inside-first plan runs straight into him.
Key players
- Zander Carter (Liberty): Scored 21 points on 9-of-14 shooting with four steals against High Point.
- Dillon Claussen (Liberty): Blocked six shots in the opener despite scoring only two points.
- Cooper Campbell (Liberty): Averaged 12.5 points and shot 39.5% from three at Troy last season, but went 0-of-3 in the opener.
- Eli Sancomb (Liberty): Played 34 minutes but shot 2-of-13 against High Point.
- Cristian Sanon (North Carolina Central): Led all scorers at Georgia with 19 points on 5-of-7 from three.
- Trey Brown (North Carolina Central): Posted 10 points and nine rebounds in 34 minutes in the opener.
- Darius Kane (North Carolina Central): Dished seven assists but shot 16.7% from the field at Georgia.
- Maurice Vassel (North Carolina Central): Scored 10 points on 62.5% shooting in 18 minutes.
Numbers that matter
| Liberty 3-point % | 19.2% | Ranked 321st in the opener, a sharp break from last season's elite shooting. |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty block rate | 18.9% | Ranked 47th, driven by Claussen's six blocks. |
| NC Central 2-point % | 34.8% | Ranked 325th for a team that rarely shoots threes. |
| NC Central turnover rate | 25.7% | Ranked 313th, a weakness Liberty's guards can exploit. |
| NC Central returning minutes | 3.1% | Almost none of last season's roster remains, so last season's numbers say little. |
North Carolina Central vs Liberty: quick answers
When is North Carolina Central vs Liberty?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.