North Alabama vs Miami prediction: Miami's cold-shooting opener gives way to a rebuilt North Alabama

Miami needs its jump shot back

Miami's season opened with a 77-67 loss to No. 1 Florida, and the problem was simple: the ball didn't go in. The Hurricanes posted an effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark where threes count 1.5 times) of 38.3%, which ranks 319th nationally after one week. They made just 39.5% of their twos.

That was against a Florida team ranked 5th in opponent-adjusted net efficiency, so context matters. Friday's 5:00 PM ET tip is Miami's first home game, and it comes against a North Alabama program that went 9-21 last season. By last season's final adjusted ratings (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), Miami ranked 33rd in net efficiency and North Alabama 342nd. Both rosters have changed enough that those figures are a rough guide, not a forecast.

A Lions roster built in one offseason

Tony Pujol, in his ninth season, is coaching close to a brand-new team. Players back from last season account for just 13.5% of last season's minutes, and the roster carries 12 newcomers, including 10 transfers. It's also North Alabama's first season in the United Athletic Conference.

The early identity is perimeter-first. In the opener at UC Davis, the Lions trailed 15-2 before rallying, and Caden Harris buried the go-ahead three in a 79-75 win. Threes made up 53.1% of their shot attempts, 39th most in the country, and they hit 38.5% of them.

Quan Lax, a transfer from Austin Peay, came off the bench for 19 points. Canisius transfer Mike Evbagharu, a guard, filled the box with 12 points and 10 rebounds. Miami allowed Florida to hit 42.3% from deep, so the Hurricanes' closeouts are worth watching early.

Where Miami's edge should show

The cleanest Miami advantage sits at center. Somto Cyril, the Georgia transfer, went 4-of-5 for 13 points against Florida, and he averaged 2.2 blocks per game last season at Georgia. North Alabama has to score somewhere besides the arc, and Cyril shrinks that space.

Ball security is the other pressure point. The Lions turned it over on 25.3% of their possessions at UC Davis, 309th nationally. Acaden Lewis, the Villanova transfer who scored 24 against Florida, averaged 1.9 steals per game last season, and Miami's guards should be able to turn loose possessions into transition chances that ease the half-court shooting problem.

Fouls and the frontcourt picture

Both teams were busy at the line in their openers. Miami's opponents shot free throws at a rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 66.0%, 338th of 348, and North Alabama drew fouls at a 57.1% clip, 36th. If that continues, a Lions team down on talent gets free points and a slower, choppier game.

Malik Reneau fouled out against Florida, and Shelton Henderson went 2-of-13 from the floor. Reneau, who averaged 18.9 points per game last season, missed the Oct. 23 exhibition with a reported lower-body issue before playing the opener. His eligibility rests on a preliminary injunction; as of late September the NCAA was expected to appeal, and no outcome has surfaced.

Miami is without Marcus Allen, out for the season with a torn ACL, and L.J. Cason, who is sitting out the season after an ACL tear in February. No injury news has surfaced for North Alabama.