New Mexico St Aggies vs Gonzaga Bulldogs prediction: Short-handed New Mexico State runs into Gonzaga's size in Spokane
With Gabe Warren lost for the season and Stephon Payne ineligible, the Aggies bring a thin, smaller frontcourt into Gonzaga's first home game of its Pac-12 era.
| Spread | Gonzaga -29.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 151.5 |
- Gonzaga should control the paint and the foul line early, then lean on depth while New Mexico State's thin rotation tires.
- Mark Lavrenov and Leopold Levillain against Gonzaga's bigger frontcourt, led by Braden Huff and Izan Almansa.
- Gonzaga is favored by 28, up from 26 when our feed first saw it, and the total has climbed to 151.5.
A frontcourt running on fumes
New Mexico State arrives in Spokane missing two of the bodies it built its frontcourt around. Holy Cross transfer Gabe Warren tore his ACL minutes into the opener and is out for the season, Jason Hooten said. Seton Hall transfer Stephon Payne remains ineligible after joining the same five-seasons-in-five-years lawsuit as Gonzaga's Chauncey Wiggins. KK Robinson, back from two straight years of knee injuries, is still on a minutes restriction and will be limited Saturday.
That leaves Mark Lavrenov and Leopold Levillain as the projected starting frontcourt, with Levillain at center. Lavrenov, a Sacramento State transfer, posted 17 points and 10 rebounds in the opener and will have to carry a heavy load again. The size gap is real: Gonzaga's minutes-weighted average height is 79.0 inches, New Mexico State's is 76.6. Every Aggie big who picks up early fouls shrinks an already short bench.
Gonzaga's rebuilt roster passed one test
Only 13.7% of Gonzaga's minutes from last season are still on the roster, so last year's dominant numbers say little about this group. The opener said more. The Bulldogs beat Purdue 78-72 on a neutral floor, against a team that finished 8th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) last season.
Davis Fogle, whose left leg kept him out of the Oct. 24 exhibition at Arkansas, put any concern to rest with a career-high 22 points. Xaivian Lee, playing under a court injunction the NCAA is expected to appeal, added 18 and was efficient from deep. Izan Almansa, whose clearance had been murky in October, played and scored off the bench. Wiggins is still ineligible and has withdrawn from the Georgia lawsuit to pursue another path, so freshmen Luca Foster and Juwan Ekanga are expected to compete for the ninth spot in the rotation.
The Bulldogs score inside and at the line
Mark Few's teams don't hunt threes, and this one is no different. Gonzaga took 30.2% of its shots from deep against Purdue, 338th in Division I, after ranking 344th in that style stat last season too. The jumper isn't settled: the Bulldogs went 6-of-28 from three in the Arkansas exhibition.
What worked against Purdue was contact. Gonzaga's free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) was 64.2%, 10th nationally. Against a smaller, thinner Aggie frontcourt, attacking the rim and drawing fouls is the obvious plan, and it is the quickest way to stretch this game out.
Dudley is the Aggies' best answer
New Mexico State has turned over its roster almost as completely as Gonzaga, returning 21.5% of last season's minutes. Hooten, in his fourth year, added 12 newcomers, and the Aggies were picked sixth in Conference USA.
The headliner is DJ Dudley, a preseason all-conference pick from Louisiana Tech. He stepped in after Warren went down and scored 22 on 4-of-8 shooting from three in a 73-66 win over Western New Mexico. That opponent carries no Division I rating, so the Aggies' team numbers from that night say little about how they handle Gonzaga. Dudley averaged 13.8 points at Louisiana Tech last season; he will need a lot more than that, plus steady help from San José State transfer Jermaine Washington, to keep this within range.
A big number that keeps growing
Gonzaga is a 28-point favorite, up from 26 when our feed first recorded the line, with the money moving toward the Bulldogs. The total has climbed to 151.5 from 148.5.
Against Purdue, Gonzaga closed as a 5.5-point favorite, covered, and stayed under a total of 153.75. A spread this size depends on whether Few keeps his starters on the floor after halftime in a home opener. The projected garbage-time group of Sam Funches, Alonzo Metz and Carter Nilson could decide the final margin.
New Mexico St Aggies vs Gonzaga Bulldogs line movement and odds
| Book | Aggies ML | Bulldogs ML | Aggies spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | — | — | +29.5 (-110) | o151.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +29.5 (-118) | o152.5 (-107) |
| DraftKings | +3500 | -20000 | +29.5 (-110) | o151.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +29.5 (-110) | o152.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +8000 | -50000 | +29.5 (-115) | o151.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | — | — | +29.5 (-110) | o152.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +29.5 (-115) | o151.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | — | — | +29.5 (-110) | o152 (-110) |
Where the money is on New Mexico St Aggies vs Gonzaga Bulldogs
On the Kalshi moneyline: New Mexico St Aggies: 77% of bets, 3% of the money; Gonzaga Bulldogs: 23% of bets, 97% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs -30.5: 70% of bets, 53% of the money; New Mexico St Aggies +30.5: 30% of bets, 47% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 151.5: 48% of bets, 32% of the money; Under 151.5: 52% of bets, 68% of the money.
New Mexico St Aggies vs Gonzaga Bulldogs stats (this season)
| Stat | New Mexico St Aggies | Gonzaga Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 109.5 (163rd of 365) | 122.4 (31st of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 110.4 (201st of 365) | 90.9 (5th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -0.9 (176th of 365) | 31.5 (9th of 365) |
| Pace | 68.5 (266th of 364) | 69.0 (250th of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 47.4% (268th of 363) | 49.1% (242nd of 363) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 39.0% (54th of 363) | 51.8% (250th of 363) |
| Turnover rate | 14.7% (99th of 363) | 14.5% (90th of 363) |
| Offensive rebound % | 27.0% (279th of 363) | 29.4% (241st of 363) |
| 3-point % | 33.3% (168th of 363) | 37.5% (96th of 363) |
| Free throw rate | 37.9% (155th of 363) | 64.2% (10th of 363) |
Key players
- Davis Fogle (Gonzaga): Scored a career-high 22 against Purdue with a team-high 35.3% usage rate.
- Xaivian Lee (Gonzaga): Hit 3 of 4 threes on the way to 18 points in the opener.
- Braden Huff (Gonzaga): Played 36 minutes against Purdue after shooting 66.2% from the field in 18 games last season.
- Izan Almansa (Gonzaga): Scored 11 points in 29 minutes in his debut after his eligibility was cleared.
- DJ Dudley (New Mexico State): Scored 22 points on 4-of-8 threes in the opener.
- Mark Lavrenov (New Mexico State): Posted 17 points and 10 rebounds in the opener with a 46.8% usage rate.
- Jermaine Washington (New Mexico State): Averaged 11.5 points at San José State last season and had 3 steals off the bench in the opener.
Numbers that matter
| Spread | -28.0 | Gonzaga's line has grown from -26 since our feed first saw it. |
|---|---|---|
| Gonzaga height | 79.0 | Minutes-weighted average height in inches, compared with 76.6 for a New Mexico State frontcourt missing Warren and Payne. |
| Gonzaga free throw rate | 64.2% | Ranked 10th nationally after the Purdue game and points to a plan of attacking the rim. |
| Gonzaga returning minutes | 13.7% | So little of last season's roster is back that last year's ratings are a weak guide. |
| Total | 151.5 | Up from 148.5 when our feed first recorded it. |
New Mexico St Aggies vs Gonzaga Bulldogs: quick answers
Who is favored in New Mexico St Aggies vs Gonzaga Bulldogs?
Gonzaga is favored by 29.5 points (Gonzaga -29.5).
What is the over/under for New Mexico St Aggies vs Gonzaga Bulldogs?
The total is 151.5 points.
When is New Mexico St Aggies vs Gonzaga Bulldogs?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.
Where is New Mexico St Aggies vs Gonzaga Bulldogs played?
McCarthey Athletic Center, Spokane, WA.
Has the line moved for New Mexico St Aggies vs Gonzaga Bulldogs?
Yes: New Mexico St Aggies opened +26.5 and is now +29.5, and the total moved from 148.5 to 151.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on New Mexico St Aggies vs Gonzaga Bulldogs?
On the Kalshi moneyline: New Mexico St Aggies: 77% of bets, 3% of the money; Gonzaga Bulldogs: 23% of bets, 97% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs -30.5: 70% of bets, 53% of the money; New Mexico St Aggies +30.5: 30% of bets, 47% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 151.5: 48% of bets, 32% of the money; Under 151.5: 52% of bets, 68% of the money.