Morgan State vs UMBC prediction: UMBC's rebuilt champions need shooters before Alfred Worrell Jr. heats up

Two programs starting over

UMBC won 24 games last season and beat Vermont 74-59 for the America East title. Almost none of that team remains. Players on this season's roster logged just 7.8% of last season's minutes. The scoring core of DJ Armstrong Jr., Ace Valentine and Jah'Likai King is gone, with Valentine now at Robert Morris and King at Little Rock.

The league's coaches still picked the Retrievers second, largely on faith in Jim Ferry, who was named America East Coach of the Year and finished as a national Coach of the Year finalist. That faith rests on the coach, not the roster, so last season's numbers say little about this team.

Morgan State is rebuilding too, though from a weaker base. The Bears went 14-16 last season and return 23.2% of their minutes. Kevin Broadus added eight transfers. The difference is that Morgan State kept its best scorer.

Where UMBC's shots went

Armstrong made 41.9% of his threes last season. Nobody on the new roster has shown that kind of touch yet. In a 54-82 loss at George Mason, UMBC posted a 33.3% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times), which ranks 293rd of 303.

The shot quality was the problem as much as the misses. Devin Ceaser carried a 41.7% usage rate and went 1-of-8 from three. Rider transfer Flash Burton, who averaged 15.1 points there last season, shot 29.4% from the field. The bright spot was freshman Aidan Able, who scored 13 points and hit three of his eight threes.

UMBC also barely got to the line. Its free throw rate of 9.7% ranked 299th, which leaves the offense with little to fall back on when the jumpers stop falling.

Worrell and the new Bears

Morgan State's opener came against Cheyney, a non-Division I opponent, in a 103-52 rout. Treat every number from it lightly. The individual lines still show how Broadus plans to play.

Worrell scored 27 points in 21 minutes and went 6-of-13 from three. That fits his track record: he averaged 17.4 points last season. Keith Richard ran the offense with nine assists. Up front, Utah transfer Ibrahima Traore had 14 rebounds and four blocks. Trent Edwards, who missed all of last season with an injury, added 11 boards. The research turned up no new injury news for either team.

The glass and the whistle

Last season's Morgan State team had two clear weaknesses. It ranked 320th in defensive rebound rate, the share of opponents' misses a team secures. It also allowed an opponent free throw rate of 50.0%, 362nd of 365. Traore and Edwards are the Bears' answer to the first problem.

UMBC grabbed only 59.5% of available defensive rebounds at George Mason, 260th nationally. If the Retrievers can't make shots, they can't afford to give Morgan State's new frontcourt second chances as well. Their clearest way to make up the shooting gap is to draw fouls from a program that committed plenty of them last season.

A crosstown opener

This rivalry has swung both ways. Morgan State won 92-80 in 2023, UMBC won by 23 the next year, and the Retrievers escaped 81-79 at Morgan State last November.

Both teams come in with 10 days of rest. UMBC is at home in Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena for the first game of the Under Armour-backed 410 Invitational, which brings together four Baltimore programs. Towson hosts the championship and consolation games on Nov. 14.