Milwaukee vs TCU prediction: TCU's grabby defense waits for a turnover-prone, rebuilt Milwaukee

Where Milwaukee gives it away

Milwaukee opened with a 95-63 loss at ranked USC, scoring just 63 points. The most worrying number from that night is the turnovers. The Panthers coughed it up on 23.0% of their possessions, which ranks 281st of 348 teams after one game. Turnover rate is simply the share of trips that end without a shot.

That is the wrong profile to bring to Fort Worth. TCU forced turnovers on 26.7% of Lindenwood's possessions, 52nd nationally. It also posted a steal rate that ranks 19th, meaning Frogs defenders took the ball cleanly rather than waiting for errant passes. DJ Thomas, a West Virginia transfer, had five steals by himself.

Last season's Milwaukee team protected the ball well, ranking 70th in turnover rate. That group is mostly gone, though, so it is a weak guide. The guards who handle the ball now are largely new, and TCU will test them for 40 minutes.

Closeouts are Milwaukee's other problem

USC shot 54.5% from three against Milwaukee, which ranks 347th of 348. One night of hot shooting can be noise. But this was also an issue last season, when the Panthers ranked 337th in opponent 3-point percentage.

TCU does not shoot many threes. Its 3-point attempt rate ranks 304th, so the Frogs take few. But they made 52.6% of them against Lindenwood, eighth nationally. If Milwaukee keeps leaving shooters open, a low-volume team can still punish it.

Jamie Dixon said before the season that he had concerns about his defense. The opener still had a few lapses. Even so, Lindenwood managed just 59 points.

Second chances and the foul line

TCU's offense in the opener was built on extra possessions. The Frogs grabbed 46.2% of their own misses, an offensive rebound rate that ranks 45th. They also drew fouls constantly. Their free throw rate, free throw attempts per field goal attempt, ranks 32nd.

Milwaukee offers little resistance at the rim. Its block rate ranks 318th, and USC got to the line freely against it.

The Frogs did this even though starting big men Luke Bamgboye and Xavier Edmonds spent much of the opener in foul trouble. With more minutes from that frontcourt, the glass and the line could tilt further toward TCU.

Two rebuilds, unequal footing

Milwaukee brings back just 28.7% of last season's minutes. Its best returner had a rough start. Preseason All-Horizon pick Danilo Jovanovich averaged 12.4 points last season but scored two at USC in 31 minutes.

The opener's scoring came from new faces instead. Amare Hereford had 14 points off the bench, and Marquette transfer Tre Norman added 13. Both carried heavy usage with poor efficiency.

TCU returns about half its minutes and spread the ball around in the opener. Micah Robinson and Thomas scored 19 apiece, and Iowa transfer Brock Harding added 17. The win was Dixon's 200th at TCU, in his 11th season. Gavin Sykes, who averaged 19.4 points at Long Beach State last season, was not among the six Frogs who played the most minutes against Lindenwood. He is the piece to watch as the rotation settles.

Schedule and setting

This is the first of three games for Milwaukee against teams that reached the NCAA Tournament's second round last season, with Florida and Vanderbilt still to come. Last season's final adjusted ratings put TCU 49th nationally in net efficiency and Milwaukee 256th. Those ratings describe rosters that have since changed a lot, but the gap is wide.

Both teams come in after 11 days off. Tipoff is Friday at 8:00 PM ET on ESPN+ at Schollmaier Arena, where TCU gets the home crowd.