Merrimack vs Florida prediction: Florida's All-SEC frontcourt eyes the glass against rebuilt Merrimack

Second chances for the Gators

Florida opened its season as the No. 1 team in the country by beating a ranked Miami team, and the core that did it is the same one that routed Merrimack 80-45 in Gainesville a year ago. The Warriors arrive with a mostly new roster and an old problem: they don't finish defensive possessions with the ball.

Last season Merrimack ranked dead last in Division I in defensive rebound rate, the share of an opponent's misses a defense collects, at 60.1%. Only 36.3% of last season's minutes are back, so those numbers are a loose guide. The opener didn't suggest a fix. Merrimack collected 51.5% of App State's misses, 331st nationally.

Florida is built to punish exactly that. The Gators ranked 2nd in offensive rebound rate last season, and Condon, Chinyelu and Haugh all passed on the NBA to return. Chinyelu, a preseason first-team All-SEC pick, hauled in 14 boards against Miami. Expect Florida's misses to become putbacks all night.

A new Merrimack still finding shots

Joe Gallo lost the two guards who carried his offense, Kevair Kennedy to Wake Forest and Ernest Shelton to Boston College, and he is leaning into a more balanced attack. The first look was rough. Merrimack scored 49 points against App State and trailed 43-21 at halftime before winning the rest of the game.

The shooting was the issue. Merrimack's effective field goal percentage, which counts threes 1.5 times, was 39.8%, 315th nationally. Iona transfer Denver Anglin used the most possessions, with a 29.6% usage rate, and went 1 of 7 from three. The most efficient Warrior was James Madison transfer Elijah Wilborn, who posted a 112.1 offensive rating off the bench-sized minutes he earned.

What Merrimack does control is tempo. It played just 57 possessions against App State, 347th in pace, and last season's team was among the slowest in the country too. Shortening the game is the clearest way to keep this from getting out of hand.

Florida's three-point experiment

Last season's Gators won inside, ranking 20th in two-point percentage and 322nd in three-point percentage. Against Miami they leaned outward: 49.1% of their shots were threes, and they made 42.3% of them. Thomas Haugh, the other preseason first-team All-SEC pick, went 4 of 8 from deep.

Merrimack's defense may invite more of the same. App State took 60.0% of its shots from three against the Warriors, 9th-most allowed by any Division I defense so far. Gallo, who just published a book titled "More Than the Zone," built last season's team to defend, and it ranked 20th in opponent three-point percentage. Whether this new group can close out on Florida's shooters while also boxing out its bigs is the question Merrimack has to answer.

Where Florida can stumble

The Gators' soft spots are at the line and on the bench. Florida lived at the stripe against Miami, posting a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 66.0%, 14th nationally, but made only 57.1% of its tries. Haugh missed more than he made.

Depth is thinner than the ranking suggests. Across two exhibitions, Florida's bench was outscored 61-7. Todd Golden said before the opener that he didn't expect CJ Ingram to play as he recovers from a back injury, and no return date had surfaced as of Nov. 2. Boogie Fland shook off an illness that cost him an exhibition and started against Miami, and Kentucky transfer Denzel Aberdeen is playing a fifth season under a temporary injunction granted in September.