Mercyhurst vs Penn State prediction: Roko Prkačin and Penn State's new frontcourt face an undersized Mercyhurst

The paint is Penn State's

Penn State spent the offseason replacing a team that went 12-20, and the first look at the new version came off the bench. Roko Prkačin, who spent the preseason working through the eligibility process, scored 28 points in his debut against Canisius. He needed only 20 minutes to do it, and the Nittany Lions won 97-57.

That game was won inside. Penn State made 69.6% of its two-point shots, 25th in Division I, and Ivan Jurić added 14 points and 15 rebounds at center. The Nittany Lions also rebounded 43.8% of their own misses (offensive rebound rate), 45th nationally.

Mercyhurst is poorly built to stop that. At Marquette the Lakers secured just 39.4% of the defensive rebounds available to them, 302nd of 303 teams. Their best rim protector from last season, Qadir Martin, who blocked 2.4 shots per game, now plays at Fairfield. Expect Penn State to get second chances all night.

Mercyhurst needs its threes back

The Lakers lean on the three: 46.6% of their shots at Marquette came from deep, 86th nationally. They made 14.8% of them. That left an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 32.8%, and a 43-78 loss that was decided by halftime, when Mercyhurst had 14 points.

The shooting should improve. Jake Lemelman, a preseason All-NEC guard, went 2 of 8 from three in the opener but hit 40% last season. Fellow All-NEC pick Tennessee Rainwater made 50% of his threes at Le Moyne last season. The supporting cast is the worry: Geoff Sprouse went 0 for 6 from deep and Or Faran 0 for 4.

Penn State's opening-night perimeter defense looked sharp, holding Canisius to 18.2% from three. Canisius finished last season 345th in adjusted net efficiency, so treat that number with caution.

Two rosters starting over

Last season's numbers say little about either team. Mercyhurst returns 22.2% of last season's minutes, Penn State 26.4%. Penn State's defense ranked 352nd of 365 last season; almost none of those players remain. Mercyhurst's defense ranked 50th, but the core of that group is gone too, along with leading scorer Bernie Blunt III.

The Lakers did reach the NEC title game last season under Gary Manchel, now in his 24th year, before falling to Long Island. They aren't eligible for the NCAA tournament until 2027-28. Penn State, picked last in one preseason Big Ten poll, rebuilt with transfers like Brant Byers from Miami (Ohio) and Dasonte Bowen from St. Bonaventure.

Availability and the setting

Bowen missed the Oct. 17 exhibition with an undisclosed issue, returned at Drexel on Oct. 26 and started the opener at point guard. No newer injury news has surfaced. Josh Reed is eligible, though a pending eligibility lawsuit in Ohio could change that. Reggie Grodin, who redshirted last season while injured, played against Canisius. Nothing has been reported on Mercyhurst's availability.

Both teams get 10 days of rest. The game doubles as Penn State's Hoops for Troops and Senior Day, and it is the first meeting between the in-state programs.

Tempo and the total

Penn State ran 73 possessions per 40 minutes in its opener; Mercyhurst played at 65. The Lakers ranked 315th in pace last season, and a team that struggles to score has every reason to drain the clock. Both openers went under, Penn State's against a closing total of 154.25 and Mercyhurst's against 146.5. Books haven't posted a number for this one yet.