Mercyhurst vs Notre Dame prediction: Logan Duncomb and a remade Notre Dame test Mercyhurst's slow-down defense
Notre Dame brings back barely a third of last season's minutes, and Mercyhurst's patient, physical style will show how quickly the new pieces fit.
- Mercyhurst will try to drag this into a low-possession grind; Notre Dame's rebuilt roster should hold the edge in size and shot-making.
- Winthrop transfer Logan Duncomb against a smaller Mercyhurst frontcourt that sent opponents to the line often last season.
- No line posted yet. Last season's final adjusted ratings had Notre Dame 94th and Mercyhurst 280th nationally.
A roster built from elsewhere
Notre Dame went 13-18 last season, and Micah Shrewsberry answered by turning the roster over. Players on this year's team account for only 34.3% of last season's minutes and 29.7% of its points, so last season's team numbers are a weak guide to who takes the floor at Purcell Pavilion.
The departures were heavy. Jalen Haralson, last season's lead scorer at 16.2 points a game, is now at Tennessee. Cole Certa left for Clemson, and rebounder Carson Towt is gone too.
The replacements arrive with résumés. Logan Duncomb scored 18.2 points a game at Winthrop with a 60% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times). Ethan Roberts averaged 16.9 points at Penn and hit 41.2% from three. Braeden Smith comes from Gonzaga, where he handed out 3.6 assists a game. The holdover anchor is Braeden Shrewsberry, who made 88 threes at a 40.2% clip while starting all 31 games.
Mercyhurst's grind-it-out formula
Mercyhurst went 17-17 last season and reached the NEC championship final in its first eligible year. It got there by slowing games down and guarding. Its pace ranked 315th of 365, and it allowed 67.4 points a game, 31st nationally.
The Lakers also protected the ball, with a turnover rate that ranked 36th. That matters against a Notre Dame defense that barely took the ball away last season: its forced turnover rate ranked 342nd and its steal rate 359th. Few cheap Irish baskets are likely.
There is a caveat on that defense. Adjusted for opponents, Mercyhurst's defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) ranked only 194th in last season's final ratings, a sign the NEC schedule flattered it. Its offense ranked 323rd on the same adjusted basis.
One style quirk helps Mercyhurst here. Notre Dame's defense allowed a heavy diet of threes last season, with its opponent 3-point attempt rate ranking 13th-highest. The Lakers rarely live there, ranking 336th in how often they shoot from deep.
The paint and the whistle
The clearest physical edge belongs to Notre Dame. Its minutes-weighted average height is 77.8 inches against Mercyhurst's 74.6, and Duncomb is the kind of interior scorer who exploits that.
Fouls are the pressure point. Last season Mercyhurst's opponents earned free throws at a rate that ranked 328th, meaning the Lakers fouled a lot. On the other end they almost never got to the line themselves; their free throw rate ranked 363rd. If Duncomb draws contact early, Mercyhurst's patient plan gets harder to run.
Notre Dame has to finish those trips, though. The Irish made 69.7% of their free throws last season, 271st nationally, and Duncomb shot 73.5% at Winthrop.
An early-season road swing
Neither team arrives fresh from a quiet week. Notre Dame plays Villanova in Rome on Nov. 1, just before this game. Mercyhurst, coached by Gary Manchel, plays at Marquette on Nov. 2 before facing Notre Dame, a pair of early road tests against formidable opponents.
The Lakers, still completing their move from Division II, are not eligible for the NCAA tournament until the 2028-29 season, so nights like this are their measuring sticks. Tip time had not been confirmed as of Oct. 18.
What to watch
- How early Duncomb draws fouls on Mercyhurst's smaller front line.
- Whether the Lakers hold the pace down and keep turnovers low.
- How Roberts and Shrewsberry share shots in a new backcourt.
Where the money is on Mercyhurst vs Notre Dame
On the Kalshi moneyline: Mercyhurst: 50% of bets, 24% of the money; Notre Dame: 50% of bets, 77% of the money.
Key players
- Logan Duncomb (Notre Dame): Scored 18.2 points and grabbed 8.9 rebounds a game last season at Winthrop with a 130.9 offensive rating.
- Ethan Roberts (Notre Dame): Averaged 16.9 points at Penn last season on a 28.1% usage rate while hitting 41.2% of his threes.
- Braeden Shrewsberry (Notre Dame): Started all 31 games last season and shot 40.2% from three on 219 attempts.
- Braeden Smith (Notre Dame): Dished 3.6 assists in 17.1 minutes a game at Gonzaga last season.
Numbers that matter
| Notre Dame returning minutes | 34.3% | Share of last season's minutes played by players on this year's roster, so last season's team stats say little. |
|---|---|---|
| Mercyhurst pace rank, last season | 315th | The Lakers play slowly, which limits possessions and keeps games tight. |
| Mercyhurst opponent free throw rate, last season | 41.5% | Ranked 328th, a foul-prone defense facing a big interior scorer. |
| Notre Dame forced turnover rate rank, last season | 342nd | The Irish rarely took the ball away, and Mercyhurst rarely gave it up. |
| Mercyhurst adjusted defense rank, last season | 194th | Opponent-adjusted rating that tempers the Lakers' strong raw defensive numbers. |
Mercyhurst vs Notre Dame: quick answers
When is Mercyhurst vs Notre Dame?
Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.
Where is the money on Mercyhurst vs Notre Dame?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Mercyhurst: 50% of bets, 24% of the money; Notre Dame: 50% of bets, 77% of the money.