Mercer vs West Virginia prediction: Miles Sadler and West Virginia's new pressure test a rebuilt Mercer

Two programs starting over

Neither bench in Morgantown will look much like it did last March. West Virginia brings back just 21.2% of last season's minutes, and Mercer returns 24.2%. Last season's team numbers are a weak guide for both, so the story here is about who arrived.

For Ross Hodge, in his second season, the answer is a lot. Freshman Miles Sadler, billed as the highest-rated recruit ever to sign with West Virginia, runs the backcourt beside Butler transfer Finley Bizjack, who scored 17.1 points per game there last season. Hodge used 13 players in the opener against Niagara, and six reached double figures.

Mercer lost more star power. Baraka Okojie, last season's leading scorer at 19.7 points per game, left for George Mason, and center Armani Mighty went to Pittsburgh. Quinton Perkins II and Brady Shoulders are the only significant holdovers in Ryan Ridder's rotation.

The turnover battle

This is where West Virginia's new look showed most. Against Niagara the Mountaineers forced turnovers on 34.3% of possessions (turnovers per 100 possessions), 5th in the country. Sadler and Martin Somerville had three steals each.

Mercer's opener points the wrong way for the Bears. They gave the ball away on 20.3% of possessions, 210th nationally, against Reinhardt. That was a sharp turn from last season's Mercer, which ranked 44th in ball security, but the guards who handled it then are mostly gone. If the new backcourt coughs it up at that rate in a road gym against this pressure, the game can get away from Mercer quickly.

Mercer lives behind the arc

The Bears let it fly in their opener: 52.2% of their shots were threes, 43rd most in the country. They made only 28.6% of them and still won 90-53 because they scored 68.8% inside the arc.

That inside game will be harder to find without Mighty, so the threes have to fall. Perkins is the likeliest shooter to swing it; he hit 40.8% from deep last season. Derek Goodman led the opener with 18 points on 3-of-8 shooting from three, and KJ Lamonte carried the heaviest load with a 33.6% usage rate.

West Virginia matched the volume and beat the accuracy, hitting 43.3% from three against Niagara. Somerville went 3 for 4 off the bench and scored all 12 of his points in a second half the Mountaineers won 48-16.

Hodge picks up the tempo

Last season's West Virginia crawled. Its pace of 63.8 possessions per 40 minutes ranked 347th of 365, and its defense carried the team, finishing 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents).

The opener ran much faster, at 71 possessions. Mercer played at the 44th-fastest pace in the country last season and opened at 73.5 this year, so the Bears will be glad to run. More possessions means more chances for West Virginia's pressure to produce turnovers, but also more threes for Mercer to hit.

What the numbers say about the gap

Last season's final adjusted net ratings had West Virginia 54th and Mercer 180th, and both rosters have changed so much that those ranks only sketch the programs. The opponents in the openers say little: Niagara ranked 343rd in adjusted net rating, and Reinhardt carried no rating at all.

Both teams come in on ten days of rest. West Virginia, picked to finish tied for eighth in the Big 12, is chasing its first NCAA Tournament bid since 2023, and November home games like this one are where Hodge sorts out a 13-man rotation.

• Sanon's thigh: Joson Sanon was treated for a thigh issue in the preseason but played in the opener and hit three threes.
• Mercer's glass: Shoulders grabbed 13 rebounds against Reinhardt; a guard cleaning up misses matters for a team without Mighty.
• The first line: West Virginia covered a big number in its opener, and the spread here will show how much credit the market gives the new roster.