Mercer vs Virginia Tech prediction: Mercer brings pace at a Virginia Tech defense that bent inside

A reunion fifty years late

These programs haven't shared a floor since 1973-74, and the renewal comes Thursday, Nov. 5, at Cassell Coliseum. It's a non-conference buy game for Virginia Tech, and the Hokies carry real ambitions into it: the ACC media poll picked them 9th, and KenPom's preseason ratings slot them No. 52.

Mercer arrives picked seventh in the SoCon coaches' poll and will already have a tuneup behind it, a Nov. 2 game against Reinhardt. The tip time hasn't been firmly settled across listings, so check before you plan around it.

Every number below is from last season, the only data either team has. Both rosters changed over the summer, so treat those numbers as a sketch of each program's style, not a scouting report.

The Hokies' soft middle

Virginia Tech's defense last season split in two. Opponents shot just 30.6% from three, 30th-best nationally. Inside the arc it was a different story: opponents made 54.1% of their twos, which ranked 302nd of 365.

That is where Mercer can do damage. The Bears made 54.0% of their twos (110th) and drew fouls at a solid clip, with a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 37.5%, 104th nationally. A Mercer team that drives instead of settling for jumpers plays into the one place the Hokies struggled.

Virginia Tech's block rate of 8.7% ranked 225th, so it didn't erase many of those inside looks either.

Second chances on both ends

Neither team cleaned up its own misses last season. Mercer ranked 298th in defensive rebound rate and Virginia Tech 300th, nearly identical figures at 67.5% and 67.4%.

The edge belonged to the Bears on the offensive glass, where their 33.7% offensive rebound rate (share of their own misses they recovered) ranked 92nd. Virginia Tech came in at 153rd. In a game where neither team boxes out well, the team that crashes harder gets the extra possessions.

Mercer wants to run

The Bears played fast last season, averaging 70.8 possessions per 40 minutes, 44th in the country. Virginia Tech sat in the middle of the pack at 204th. Mercer paired that speed with care: its 14.7% turnover rate ranked 44th, so the pace didn't turn into giveaways.

Who sets the tempo in Blacksburg will shape the scoring. A quicker game suits the Bears, who scored 82.7 points per game last season.

Who is actually back

Virginia Tech lost Neoklis Avdalas to North Carolina, and Tobi Lawal and Jailen Bedford are also gone. The core is a returning trio of Ben Hammond, Tyler Johnson and Amani Hansberry, who made the Preseason All-ACC second team, the first Hokie honored that way since 2022. Newcomers include Jaylen Curry from Oklahoma State, Ethan Copeland from Stetson, Kuol Atak from Oklahoma and Miles Heide from San Diego State. Mike Young, in his 7th season, said at ACC Tipoff that the team is in good health.

Mercer's picture is murkier. Coach Ryan Ridder has a contract extension through 2030-31, and Brady Shoulders made the preseason All-SoCon team, but there's no clear word on the Bears' starting lineup or new transfers.

On quality, the gap is real. Last season's final adjusted efficiency ratings (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) had Virginia Tech at a net 14.9, 55th nationally, and Mercer at -1.2, 180th. Mercer went 19-13 last season.