Menlo vs UC Davis prediction: UC Davis opens its Mountain West era against familiar guest Menlo
The Aggies have handled Menlo in back-to-back seasons, and the real interest is which of last season's habits, a fast, turnover-hunting defense and a weak offensive glass, carry into a new league.
- Expect UC Davis to push tempo and lean on its defense against a non-Division I visitor it has beaten in each of the last two seasons.
- Watch the Aggies' pressure against Menlo's ball handlers; last season UC Davis forced turnovers at a rate that ranked 22nd nationally.
- No line is posted yet. Last season's pace of 71.3 possessions per 40 minutes, 32nd nationally, is the number that bears most on any total.
A new league, a familiar opener
UC Davis spent the offseason preparing for its first season in the Mountain West, and Jim Les is still running the program. Senior guard Brayden Fagbemi and sophomore forward Omer Suljanovic represented the Aggies at the league's media day in Las Vegas on Oct. 6.
Menlo is a familiar opponent. UC Davis won 80-70 in 2024-25, and it opened last season by rolling past Menlo 96-69 at home, with Nils Cooper scoring a career-high 18 points. The Nov. 5 tip time has not been announced. The school's weekday home games generally start at 6 p.m., but this one hasn't been confirmed.
What last season's Aggies did well
UC Davis went 19-14 last season. Its best trait was defensive pressure: opponents turned it over on 20.7% of their possessions, 22nd of 365 Division I teams. The Aggies also played fast, ranking 32nd in pace, and they got to the line often. Their free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) ranked 49th.
Against a non-Division I roster, those strengths should show up in transition and at the foul line.
The habits to watch
Last season's weaknesses are worth a look in a low-stakes setting. UC Davis rebounded just 26.6% of its own misses, 327th nationally. It also fouled freely: its opponent free throw rate ranked 310th. Its own turnover rate ranked 263rd.
These are last season's numbers, and returning-minutes data isn't available. Menlo's roster includes three freshmen and transfers from Lake Land College, Modesto JC and Coker. Nothing about its rotation is established, so the margin will depend mostly on how sharp the Aggies are.
Numbers that matter
| Forced turnover rate, last season | 20.7% | Ranked 22nd of 365 in 2025-26, the Aggies' sharpest defensive weapon. |
|---|---|---|
| Pace, last season | 71.3 | Possessions per 40 minutes, 32nd nationally, which points to plenty of possessions against an overmatched visitor. |
| Offensive rebound rate, last season | 26.6% | Ranked 327th, the Aggies' biggest weakness on the glass. |
| Last meeting | 96-69 | UC Davis's home win over Menlo in last season's opener. |
Menlo vs UC Davis: quick answers
When is Menlo vs UC Davis?
Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.