McNeese vs North Texas prediction: McNeese's turnover machine heads to Denton to test North Texas

The Cowboys take the ball away

McNeese built a 28-6 season last year on hands and hustle. Bill Armstrong's team led Division I in forced turnover rate (the share of opponent possessions ending in a giveaway) at 25.9%, and it also ranked first in steal rate. That is a defense that turns other teams' possessions into its own.

North Texas is the wrong kind of opponent for that pressure. The Mean Green's offense ranked 308th in efficiency last season (points per 100 possessions), and its turnover rate sat in the middle of the pack at 182nd. A team that struggles to score can't afford to hand away trips, and McNeese specializes in collecting them.

The caveat: North Texas is also a turnover-forcing team, ninth nationally last season. McNeese protected the ball well, 39th in turnover rate, so the Cowboys are better built to survive a scramble.

Where North Texas has to shoot

McNeese's defense pushed opponents outside. Teams took threes against the Cowboys at the 10th-highest rate in the country, partly because a block rate that ranked fourth made the paint unwelcoming.

That funnel lands on North Texas's weakest spot. The Mean Green made 29.9% of their threes last season, 351st of 365, and their effective field goal percentage (which counts threes as 1.5 makes) ranked 343rd. If McNeese forces the same shots it forced last winter, North Texas needs a shooting night it rarely had.

North Texas's own defense is the reason this game stays tight. It allowed 67.4 points per game, 32nd nationally, and held opponents to 30.6% from three. McNeese shot just 32.0% from deep, so the Cowboys also have to work for points inside.

Second chances and the foul line

Neither team cleaned its own glass last season. McNeese ranked 335th in defensive rebound percentage and North Texas 293rd. McNeese was the more dangerous attacker of misses, with an offensive rebound rate of 36.4%, 26th nationally. Extra possessions should matter in a game this slow: McNeese played at the 328th-fastest pace, North Texas at 250th.

Free throws could tilt the finish. Last season North Texas sent opponents to the line at the 351st-ranked rate, and its own shooters made 69.3% of their attempts. McNeese hit 75.0%. The last meeting, a 68-61 McNeese win in November 2024, was settled at the line: the Cowboys sank 12 free throws with under three minutes to play.

New seasons, familiar faces

These numbers describe last season's teams, and neither program has said how much of its rotation returns. The names that are confirmed help.

McNeese brings back Larry Johnson, the Southland Freshman of the Year and a former 4-star recruit, who announced he would return for a second season. He is expected to lead the Cowboys.

North Texas, in its second year under Daniyal Robinson, is the only American program returning an all-conference player from last season in junior guard Je'Shawn Stevenson. The Mean Green added point guard Cash Chavis from UT Arlington, where he started every game for an 18-win team. A ball-handler who has carried a lineup could be the most valuable addition against this McNeese defense.

North Texas plays an exhibition at Colorado today and hosts Northwestern State on Oct. 26. The game is at the Super Pit, and UNT's schedule lists a 4 p.m. tip that McNeese hasn't confirmed.